2008 Del Mar Handicapping Challenge Eighteenth Day Monday August 4

Finally something....although price kinda sucks.

Among our handful of contenders, 2 & 4 were offered at the highest odds-- although in the teens is really nothing for this contest. Normally we would pass at such relatively meager value...

HOWEVER:

1. we've already banked close to the needed 11 unplayed races-- the point at which one can play 'every single remaining contest race'.

2. we do need to start catching up-- and actually, we may be spinning our wheels versus those leaders w/ the same selection today.

The rationale for both horses was similar:

#2-- unlimited potential fig jump as a new 3yo. We played this one in our main entry.

#4-- unlimited potential as well, but for different reasons-- a combination of layoffs, trip trouble & different distances / surfaces had not afforded this horse a chance to demonstrate its top potential 'at this race distance & conditions'. Of course, the potential was larger for the former, so this one went to our for fun entry...finishing a closeup third.

BTW in case you wonder how the speed held up so well-- the early pace was glacial:

a. why #10 held on like that until the end.

b. Baze rode a real heady(or lucky) race-- up on the slow duel.

 

We will now be switching to what we could call 'fulfilled skipped races strategy' for the remainder of the contest:

we will play all races(we just have one two more to skip as a requirement). While we will still look to play longshots-- particularly @ cap level-- when none are offered(or those offered have zero chance), we will then select the main contender @ the largest odds offered @ posttime; the only exception to the latter may be if something is fairly sure to hit the board(irrespective of odds): we may take the sure money in that case.

The logic goes like this:

since one has to skip 11 races in this contest-- the most sensible & productive way of accomplishing this is by 'early on' not playing races that don't offer a chance at a high mutuel and/or at least some guaranteed money(as in a superior runner laying over the field). However, once those races are banked-- allowing one to play ALL remaining races, then the onus becomes on cashing(esp. if behind at this point) / one can & should lower odds threshold. When no high mutuel is available / offered, something cashed is better than nothing.