Ok, we're out...and discontinuing this. We'll see you at Belmont's Fall edition. Next year, we'll enter Saratoga Showdown with an adequate number of entries.
Yesterday,
All my longshots seemed so far away,
Now it looks as though they're here to stay,
Oh, I don't believe in yesterday.
Suddenly,
I'm not half the man I used to be,
There's a favorite hanging over me,
Oh, yesterday came suddenly.
Why'd she
take the chalk I don't know, she wouldn't say.
I said,
No, no just because you won yesterday!
And she said,
Bets were such an easy game to play,
Now I need a place to hide away,
Oh, YES I believe in yesterday.
Why'd she
take the chalk I don't know, she wouldn't say.
I said,
No, no just because you won yesterday!
Yes she said,
Bets were such an easy game to play,
Now I need a place to hide away,
Oh, YES I believe in yesterday.
Mm-mm-mm-mm-mm-mm-mm.
WE START THE DAY WITH 9% SURVIVING CONTEST ENTRIES
Yesterday we rode in the jump race specifically to avoid possible bloodbaths in the races popular with contestants.
It didn't quite work to our advantage...some popular choices hung on for third. That bad luck was due to a coupla things:
1. many races scratched down too much.
2. three / four races had considerable bumping-- esp. among foes to the popular choices.
So, as long as all that does not excessively repeat, we should see plenty of eliminations today. And yes, like yesterday, our selection will be a favorite not particularly favored by the public.
Today's card contains plenty of:
A. suspicious droppers
B. favored horses with plenty of unanswered questions.
And even the one race with a small field holds no gimme, and is a rather contentious, with all but one entrant bunched closely in the Morning Line. We give everyone a shot, even the ML longshot is not out of it by any means-- we've pegged it as the Bud Longshot actually.
Although more importantly, each & all horses in there carry question marks. It's a chaos race where 5 of 6 entrants should each curry favor with contestants-- ergo there will be some eliminations, no matter the outcome. It's entirely very possible that the longshot finishes in the money, and one or two of the more favored ones finish out.
We'll write a little more about this race later on.
TO HECK WITH MEANINGLESS & USELESS WEATHER FORECASTS
PRELIMINARY THOUGHTS ON SOME RACES--
RACE 2--
This race has two entrants that will attract considerable contestant interest-- it makes no sense to bet here for that and to boot, other lingering handicapping doubts re each co-favored horse.
First-- assuming one has several strong candidates throughout the card-- one should not ride on overly popular horses. Even if the selection is solid, anything can happen. There are two co-faves here sitting in adjacent stalls, their riders likely fixating on each other-- what if they tangle up?
Losing favorites are the most efficient executioners / firing squads in eliminator contests-- so as much as 'sensibly possible' we should strive to remove ourselves beforehand from a path where bullets earmarked for the crowds may possibly pass.
Second-- before even getting into handicapping merit-- if both horses are about equal or one cannot be eliminated-- a bet would carry too much risk / become a coin toss. If one by misfortune picks the one that loses to the other, then our hero can ONLY let ONE other from among "among the rest of the field" defeat it.
Third-- if to boot the horse(s) have serious handicapping question marks...
#3-- There's just an air of dubiousness for this ML favorite, seemingly best in this race:
Running at this class level-- esp. following that layoff-- just doesn't exude confidence: we'd have preferred to see an initial crack at Allowance level. As well the mediocre work tab w/ only short works adds little comfort. The public today will likely cherry pick its best couple of numbers before its last race, and be impressed by top jock aboard & Trainer Levine's almost 30% clip rate both overall for the year & in various relevant stats.
We however, are mindful of his win percentage nosediving from the fiery 40's during Belmont to very pedestrian 2 for 13 after officials had every single horse in his barn surprise tested just prior to Saratoga meet starting.
Now, we're not necessarily right-- but we're also not going to join the chalk herds to find out.
#4--
Will either be co-favorite or close second to above.
Again, we look at this horse in a somewhat similar light: from its class drop to the ice cold stats of its very able trainer and jock: 0 for 7 & 2 for 42 respectively. Actually, according to our numbers, there may not be anything wrong with this horse: We have every single one of the first five races, across different tracks and surface types / conditions s mind you, ascending each from the previous one-- until the last race's slight dip, which could possibly be due to having to run much faster early yet being so much farther back than accustomed to...+ maybe not being unduly pushed late in a hopeless cause.
We would much rather(if we had to that is) take this horse over the other one-- but our safety cushion significantly deflates if the other one is ready to romp.
RACE 3--
Even Money ML favorite should attract the most entries. It could either romp or finish out-- here's why:
early pace numbers are way inferior to others in here. Now, is that because this horse is a closer-- who impressively chased a loose frontrunner? Then it romps...or maybe not-- it's going to have a giant bullseye mentally painted on it by all the other riders-- who will be doing their utmost to pin it in, block it, etc.
If it happens to not be a closer, then today's fast pace may do it in.
If we HAD to bet this race, we'd rather take #4, who may shake loose early-- or #7, who is used to facing very fast early paces.
RACE 5--
We like the standout horse here-- or conversely-- we dislike it the LEAST of all other favorites today. A big plus is that it shouldn't attract that many contest votes because of the larger field, sizable number of debuters, dipping figure, etc. This may well be our contest horse; although we will continue searching for something better, esp. after scratches.
Yes, we would've liked to see a fig # jump, as well as no return to claiming ranks. However, the newly-demonstrated closing ability is a huge plus...in its previous races it just looked like a determined frontrunner who would at all costs not allow anyone to pop a head in front early.
Now we don't have to fret about any speed-crazy debuter-- it should be able to sit right behind and then pounce. As a bonus, if no one really wants the lead-- its previous early pace fig is open lengths faster than any of the experienced runners.
RACE 6--
Some nice horses in here-- and couple of question marks as well. The size of this field makes this race more appropriate for betting than for contest purposes.
edit: Field down to 9: 1,3,4,5 main contenders...good luck choosing from between them...which one is most ready to run... which one grew up the most during layoff...
RACE 7--
ML favorite on a suspicious plunge off a long layoff after allowance wins. And trainer & jock have between them one solitary second place finish out of a combined 27 starts here.
Second ML fave, formerly in open maiden and allowance does not inspire much more confidence either @ 25K offering price..
RACE 8--
First two faves(disregard MTO entrant) may be compromised by fast early pace-- yes, even when bias favors speed that can occur.
RACE 9--
Very contentious race-- along with question marks on many. We can envision any, ALL and each of these winning AND finishing out of the money-- so not only why toss a coin-- why even waste time handicapping it further.
We could be persuaded to bet here if by chance two scratched out... as it stands, we'll let other contestants knock heads, and each other out here.
TODAY'S SELECTION-- Race 5 #5
INTRA DAY-- seems like our advise on the various races has been good for parimutuel betting-- doping out a winner with some semblance of a price-- although not for getting the suspect completely off the board.
The entry returned purchase drip seems to finally have dried up.
race 2: #4's gate stumble cost it at least place and maybe win. That would still place fave @ third-- hard to get it out in 5 horse field. #2 late scratch-- we would've considered #7 in 5-horse field. #5 just came here for the scenery-- never lifted a foot. #1 thoroughly basted & cooked in its own juices by the pace, was never going to hit board barring an accident.
race 3: #'s 2 & 6 lost all chance at the break. Yeah, they were longshots-- but that makes it a lot harder, if only mathematically-- to get the sucky fave off the board.
race 5: #5 not getting a ton of money, but then, no one else is less than 6-1...
Top 10 Selections for 8/1/2008
R# No Horse Name Percentage
3-- 3 Afleet Aya 32%
2-- 3 Casino Kay 14%
8-- 7 Prussian 14%
9-- 3 Zada Belle 13%
9-- 1 Miss Macy Sue 6%
6-- 4 Jibboom 4%
9-- 4 Rite Moment 3%
9-- 6 Graeme Six 3%
5-- 5 Ridge Royale 2%
1-- 3 Panthera Tigre 2%
ELIMINEE COUNT-- 338 OF 345 after 4... rollin', rollin', rollin'............
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