RE TRADITIONAL INVESTMENTS:

Soon we'll put up some moves. Everything's fair game btw: options, forex, commodities... long/short, RE, business opportunities, banking & credit cards. Our main goals are to eventually start a Diversified Hedge Fund, & eventually an 'international' Foundation. On the personal side our goal is the traditional Tithing, BUT in 'reverse': we will disburse 90% of our income while keeping 10%. And someday we will be President(more than one country in fact) & UN Secretary General-- these are not goals actually: they're FACTS.

DAY FOUR- FRIDAY JUNE 1

RACE 4

Lousy field-- look for a surprise win by someone who has faced a fast pace last(at least two or more races in a row-- you want to confirm both the legitimacy of the fig(s) and demand a semblance of fitness), yet faded / been outrun by quite a bit at the end: today they may hold on for two reasons...vaunted MTH speed bias & no one here puts up decent closing numbers(vs. a better than average pace of race that is)...

*** Contenders in this category: 1/4/7, although the pace looks to be highly contested.

*** We nevertheless are not ready to risk on a win or out-of-the-money animal(which to boot might be strung out wide while fighting for the lead on this inside-favoring oval), esp. since the next two races are kind of tossups as well: we're looking for somebody semi-fit, not on a downward form cycle--and most importantly, rateable-- we'll take the 3. For now...but as always though-- scratches could change things, in particular here: lighten the projected early pace battle. Another advantage of our choice-- allows us to avoid the likely two co-faves.

*** BTW this race is a tossup-- most entrants here suffer from second- & third-itis + are in questionable form-- if you're inclined to take a shot, nobody is really out of it...there are a couple of longshot possibilities coming out of route races, IFFF either can get lucky: decent break / settle early not too far off the pace / get a good trip(may be able to slip thru, as the other jocks won't likely be focusing on either: 2 & 5.

What we want to avoid at all costs it to ride along with the masses on the vulnerable co-faves:

6: jock has 0 wins, 1 second from 22 Monmouth starts / horse has raced once in '07, once in '06... & is now in for a 5K tag after multiple close, in the money finishes in open Allowances / out of the care of its former Hall of Fame trainer / its win % smacks of 2nd-, 3rd-itis.....

***

8: cold trainer / second-itis record(esp. when you glance at '06, '07, Mth, 6f columns) & winless in '06 & '07 / + its last race was deceptively easy: it's entrymate ran interference for it on the lead, keeping other pace contesters at bay; then it got a breather around the final turn & early stretch, but still gave up the lead, while earning a sub-par fig that likely won''t be enough to beat this field.

Race 7

Tossup, depending on who's ready to run(is on the juice) today:

*** 2: HAS TO pair up either 2nd or 10th race back to have a chance...pluses-- trainer has high win % from few starters & is not high-profile / won't attract undue parimutuel interest, jock is very capable. Not probable, but there are worse bets.

*** 3: as with above, MUST be ready to toss out its last fig & pair up previous one. Unfortunately, contrary to the 2, it'll be fighting for favoritism.

*** 4: we're counting on the Dutrow 'magic' here....yes, the layoff & price drop might give one pause-- but luring Castro aboard + today's easier class level(considerably lower than appears on paper btw) balance things out: this horse, if it finishes well here, may turn out to be a typical Dutrow win-while-rising-in-class-several-times-in-a-row...won't get a huge price, but this race won't likely see a big-price winner, not with 3-4 co-faves.

*** 5: HAS to run a career top fig just to contend here-- possible but not probable...& it's not sporting longshot ML odds.

*** 6: possible IFFFF first fraction is not too hot...nonwithstanding, it sports a coupla ifs/negs... jock's subpar numbers / debut over this oval / non-longshot ML odds...

*** 7: ML fave & Bravo-- if everything not sure/perfect, then this is one to avoid at all costs... It's the obvious horse to beat: this gelding looks as if it recently hit a late growth spurt(or, if you're a conspiracy theorist: suspiciously improved greatly & immediately fig-wise for its new trainer), BUT its last number was disappointing-- worse than its previous three(alhough still good enough to best these IF it does not continue downward)...if you feel it was due to the slightly-longer route distance, then you've got a play-- although at short odds. It does seem to perform better when laying a bit off the front, but here may have to set the pace-- although that may not be so bad: except for the 6, it may have the lead all to its own on this speed-friendly oval.

*** 1: does not look like it belongs in here AT ALL-- NONE of its lifetime figs make it a win contender here + its subpar-record trainer just does not win off the layoff to boot.

We'll take a bit of a risk & avoid the obvious crowd choice, risky because our choice is not a lock by any means: its debuting over an oval that does not favor at all its historical running style....but maybe Dutrow juice will allow it to lay much closer early.

Race 8

ONLY TWO entrants class up & fit the race conditions here: co-faves 7 & 9. We'll go w/ the latter & avoid Bravo on the likely actual favorite(between the horse being a year older, maybe bouncing 2nd off long layoff & plane, possibly running into traffic trouble again)...

*** Others that 'might' grab a 'minor' piece of the purse(in order of probability): 4/8/10/6/3

*** Low-odds(strongly-favored) entrants that can be absolutely tossed from WIN consideration(Layed at an exchange): 3-- although it might be able to get a lower piece of the purse.

*** IF race goes off-the-turf, 12 has a great chance.

*** Again, this analysis is VERY preliminary / final choices can change depending on other race scratches...not just within the particular race, but also how sure our other contest race choices loom race-day.

*** Good luck, as always.

IN-BETWEEN DATES

Not happy about two things: 1. Every day the standings change after posted...as long as a couple of days afterwards. 2. Races not posted yet for Friday racing, and it just turned Thursday. Races should've been up Tuesday. On the other hand, this may help eliminate more(by missing next contest day).... Ehhh........

DAY THREE- FIRST WEEKEND RECAP

35% eliminated first weekend alone...of those remaining, @ 2/3 are in dire straits: have only cashed the minimum once daily and/or have used up their free pass(missed logging in once) already. Based on performance so far 6-700 total have any chance at all... but the races up to now have been easy...it will only take one / two days of chalk biting dust to reduce total number to under 100-- Though at the present attrition rate, look for this(few contestants left) to occur within the next 2-3 weeks, even if favorites continue coming in. *** We're gladly chugging along in 139th place, $50 off the lead...not a single one of our selections has failed to hit the board. If/when we see a longshot chance, we'll take it...but we may not have to the rest of the way. And we're in decent shape for bonus prizes: one of 45 with one 3 X 3 day so far.... & at 4 wins, only 8 others top us(all tied at 5 each). ***

Race 8

Underlayed(huge understatement) entry finishes 1-2. We had actually noticed its place finisher(darn, we thought our choice actually got the place!)... its last race last year was very solid-- much more so than readily apparent-- but we disliked how it quits when pressured on the lead, and as well its trainer's ice cold stats. Our choice lay back a bit further than we thought it would...all in all we were pleased the first two choices finished off the board.

Race 9

Our odds-on choice much the best...we'd have traded the win for a loss, in order to eliminate beaucoup contestants. Small consolation though: 2nd & 3rd choices(very lukewarm though), one w/ Bravo, finished off the board.

Race 10

Again, we'd've been very happy to see our choice run off the board. Very little in the pp's to recommend top two longshot finishers...esp. the winner. Place horse confirms speed bias(as if that's news) w/ the insane fractions it cut out: 21.54 - 44.08 - 1:08.76 ... Lezcano wisely took back off it by as much as 6 lengths early, and was gaining considerably at the end(bore out badly early stretch into the eventual winner's path-- possibly while switching leads--that probably cost it place, maybe even win), although seemingly nothing was stopping the freight-train winner-- who won despite a hard bump out of the gate. We actually feel sorry for those who backed that winner- only to see it come in at a measly 10-1 odds. *** Good Luck.

DAY THREE- MONDAY MAY 28

Almost 30% / 1000 contestants eliminated first two days..... Another 1000 teeter on the brink of elimination: ½ those already used their free pass, the other ½ have only squeaked by each day with one horse in the money. And things have not gotten difficult yet...all 6 races so far have been fairly easy to dope out. *** The first two races today, 8 & 9, are horrible-- not a single horse can run to par...with no towering standout either; while the meet's top % riders are skipping them for the most part. *** We originally took both Elliot mounts early, but he's only getting 30% 'in the money'.....so, we're audibling to: ***

Race 8

#5- Seems to run well off the layoff + should be advantaged by Monmouth's frontrunning bias...and attracts the best jock of the group by far.

Race 9

We reluctantly took the #4 fave here based on the sizzling connections and potential: third race both off the layoff & as a 3yo. Although it sports the best closing fig, its early numbers are absolutely glacial...but then again, it can't really be faulted because it faced slow paces in all races-- it hasn't been a case where it couldn't keep up with fast early paces. It may not win, but it should be flying late.

Race 10

This race probably presents our safest bet. Although our original choice scratched, other scratches lead us to surmise the #1 may well have its way on the front end...this will be its third race off the layoff & on upward form cycle.

***

Good luck.

DAY TWO In Progress

Race 6:

We did not edit our picks today, leaving them all in as originally submitted. Our contenders finished 2nd & 3rd...we had the latter one, as Pletcher's horse projected to be heavy chalk(& we didn't like what the claiming price drop intimated)-- went from 6/5 to 3/5 to 1/2 in just two late tote flashes, while ours drifted up to 9...we'll take that any day.

***

For clarification purposes-- esp. since we did not signal either as a parimutuel bet-- these were only contest choices: safe picks to finish in the money... as opposed to regular bets that get backed to win.

At Monmouth & this class level in particular the dominant speed usually wins-- & good luck deciphering which one before this race went off. BTW Lezcano did a good job of staying in contact early vs what turned out to be a torrid pace: 21.48 / 43.93 / 56.46

YES, Bravo on a maiden dropdown adding blinkers merited consideration, BUT that was obvious to the masses(or so we figured): he was co-second ML choice + w/ the negatives of the trainer having horrible stats any way you diced them & nothing positive in the lone running line(no show of early speed, no heavy betting action, nothing).

IFFFF we were to take such a flyer, we'd rather've given a shot to similar-profile but higher-ML odds horses: 1(scratched), 4 & 6, even the debuter 3.

***

Bottom Line re Contest Strategy: if we're to take either the ML fave OR Bravo(on one of the top three ML choices), we're going to demand just about everything be right-- since the masses will be all over such beasts.

***

Race 8:

12 is a Lay...should get min. $2.70. Our contest choice not a pari bet: we would prefer to see an extra half-furlong in distance(when backing a closer), smaller-sized field, less opponents making a turf / route debut, either towering or very-rapidly increasing figs...

Basically our contest choice here backs up / complements Race 6's-- between both we have a very good chance of one finishing in the money.

***

Race 10:

Our 5 scratched, so we've been auto-switched to the odds-on 7... Now we hope it finishes off the board, to get more contestants eliminated.

There don't seem to be any money bet opportunities here-- nothing sufficiently-high in odds to Lay-- best thing offered is the 8 @ max. $2.25 payoff...pass.

IFFF we'd had one of our other contenders scratched OR had some heavily-backed horse that could be tossed, we'd take a flyer on an Exacta Box....pass.

***

EDIT:

Nice exacta-- $300+...but would've cost $50 to bet(5 boxed + 1 other underneath them). ..Too bad the fave held on in the show photo: very few elims today-- besides those who didn't log in both yesterday & today.

***

PS Standings update up just after 10:30 PM last night...previously we've seen them up as soon as 6:30....

DAY TWO SUNDAY MAY 27

Race 6: Two contenders here: 7 & 8. Preliminarily, we've selected 8(odds), although 7 seems a more sure pick(re consistency & not lagging back so far early). We'll re-asess after scratches tomorrow. Race 8: Only one fits profile here: 9 Now, fig-wise it's not a standout-- it HAS to continue improving & stay out of trip trouble...Bravo should help with that-- then again, most lemming contestants usually are on Bravo. Parimutuelwise: we might bet him tomorrow IF we don't find a good price Laying someone else...we'll finalize this tomorrow depending on odds. Race 10: Eery replay of yesterday's 10th analysis: Win contenders: 4/5(favor this one)/7/9/10/11...6 in the money possibly, but not Win. PS re Monday: Races look totally inscrutable: none of the contenders can run to par(both pace & final fig-wise) in the first two races...We have to decide between taking a pass or a shot at longshots...slightly leaning towards the former. For now, we took Bailero in the 10th- trainer & jock are absolutely on fire(1A also has a shot...maybe 9 IF it can handle running against the type of early pace projected here. Race basically boils down to which closer/stalker gets the best & most relaxed trip behind the projected sizzling pace), + both Stewart mounts in the earlier two races-- what's he doing riding those high-odds horses....he's pretty good at bringing in $$ horses... NOTE: just realized won't have a choice to pass on the race-- picks can be edited, but there's no way to unselect everything.

For the record re the Preakness:

We skipped the blah race: nothing too sure, little profit w/o being able to completely eliminate(from in the money slots) any of the shorter-priced contenders. Here's a link to some comments i posted before the race: http://leftatthegate.blogspot.com/2007/05/but-steve.html Ehh, not every race is bettable.

DAY ONE- SATURDAY MAY 26

Belated Posting-- we tried making the live Simulcast Challenge-- so couldn't post Survivor analysis pre-race. *** As it turned out, we missed that tournament. *** Here's that analysis...shortened btw. We did go 3 for 3 today, but don't get any ideas we're chalk-eaters. *** We're tied for 8th from 3442 contestants, $3 from the top... but, as we've said before, that means nothing...surviving is the key. *** One fourteenth of the field eliminated today, in spite of two 3/5 winners, BUT...1000+ did not log in to make a pick...& may not again this weekend, thus eliminating them totally. *** Race 8: Allowance races today hold a unique handicapping methodology lesson, per Quinn & Quirin: Look for the stereotypical horse for this class-- young, lightly-raced & improving numbers-wise race to race(hopefully not just one of the three internal race fig segments is improving, but two & possibly all three). Toss out seconditis & pro-maiden candidates, the more races the worse, the older the worse, the more gaps in races/works the worse, the more inept the connections the worse. *** We recommend you scan the pp's and circle your candidates before glancing at any pace/speed/connections figs-- in this day and age we tend to focus too much on the figs accomplished yesterday instead of thinking re what projected number improvement is possible today. Afterwards, you can then utilize the rest of your arsenal to prune out your contenders. *** In this race only two contenders merit consideration, one a likely fave-- the other at a middle price: 6 & 9 Fortuitously, the first one scratched out, leaving us w/ a nice 13+-1 price. We'll also include this horse in our parimutuel show parlay progression for the day. As well, the 10 is worth laying at an exchange-- should get a 30% price. *** Race 9 *** Not much to choose from here. The ML fave is a confirmed frontrunning-quitter...however, he projects to be open lengths in front of the closest speedster...factor in Monmouth's speed bias & we'll take it, hoping for an in the money finish; as the rest are totally uninspiring-- none can run to par for this class, and they're either cheap speed or closing plodders..."none" of the latter are on any kind of significant upward form cycle. *** Race 10 *** Win contenders: 4/5/7/9/10/11...6 might hit the board, but is NOT a win contender. We favor the 5 slightly-- it will be our choice. Those looking to Lay, take whomever's the most-favored among the rest, including the 6. Scratches: 3/4/5/10 We now were left w/ 7/9/11...which is precisely the order in which we fancied them. Likely wouldn't get a great price on the 7, but we felt it the most likely of the rest to hit the board. *** Layers, either 1 or 6 is worth taking-- we'll include a $2.68 price offered on the 6 & include it in our show parlay progression today. *** PS the 7 sure raised our blood pressure today, as we were sitting on a possible 3 for 3 day(a separate bonus prize category): breaks thru the gate pre-start, breaks poorly, circles the field late. *** As mentioned earlier, got shut out of the live contest.

Monmouth Park Survival at the Shore Online Contest updated daily, + Simulcast Series Challenge(when they occur- every 3-5 weeks) + regular bet picks

Survival at the Shore Strategy http://monmouthpark.com/survival/default.asp

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1. "Concentrate on surviving": the contest is meet-long(& likely won't make it to the end this year)!!! It's just too risky to take shots early in the contest-- 3 daily races bring a false sense of security / may lead one to risk taking a shot in one race when one has fairly secure choices in the other two. Secure, schmecure...this is horseracing!!! All it takes is one encountering running trouble + the other one scratching late & transferring one's choice to a perhaps false favorite....now your contest life depends on some longshot flyer. You might get away with this for a day or two or week, but soon enough you'll get your comeuppance. And even when you take a shot, you may find your choice's possible longshot odds shrunk significantly at post time. Take today's action:

"In spite of not one but TWO 3/5 winners" more than 1/14th were eliminated(7.2051%)...that rate, plus days when faves are not so successful, should probably guarantee the meet outlasts the contest...'especially when we additionally factor in all those eliminated during weekends(esp. holidays) & earlier-post days-- today, more than 1000 entrants(just under 1/3) did not sign in!! We hardly think they were availing themselves of the one free pass allowed in this contest right on the very first day.....so count practically all of them out this weekend, add the usual daily lose rate, and we may see 2/3 - 3/4 gone by Monday end.

You can't win this contest if you're not in it at the end-- this year just concentrate on outlasting all. IF we're wrong, and you see with 1-2 weeks remaining that the meet will end up with not all eliminated, then you can start taking some shots. So.....

2. For reasons previously stated, we place much more value on a horse that figures to be around at the end / have a fairly high probability of being in the money, even if underlayed / offered at short-odds and even if others(collectively) as just as likely to contend for the win slot..RATHER than some overlayed hit or miss longshot that is just as likely to win as to finish off the board. HOWEVER....

3. We scrutinize the first three morning line choices, esp. all projected heavy favorites ad nauseam and demand no weaknesses. All competing jocks will be fixated on stopping the favorite, or at least not allowing it an easy trip, and more importantly-- only when faves go down do significant numbers of contestants fall by the wayside. The only advisable- nay, obligatory time to take a shot-- is in the face of vulnerable favorites...say, when no one in a race projects to post a pace & final time par number.

4. Submit picks early, as soon as advance entries posted!!! You can always edit them at any time until 30 min. to first post. If you put it off until you finish some other project, something else will come up, then you'll wake up late, the internet connection will flummox, your computer will act up....Murphy's Law.

Our Simulcast Series Challenge Strategy: http://monmouthpark.com/ssc.asp

Most are in a Live Bankroll w/p/s format, 10 mandatory bets(no max.) each for min. a tenth of the 'starting' bankroll...2 entries allowed, top finishers get Ntra & World Series berths...keep your live winnings in addition to substantial cash prizes.

This is our favorite tournament format-- most closely resembles real life.

We want to utilize a different approach though-- parlaying w/ in the money.

1. Entry one is a 100% mostly-Show parlay, w/ some tweaks along the way: entire bankroll is parlayed from the first bet until it grows to 6-12 times starting size, depending on frequency & $ size of longshots at contest tracks... thereafter, min. flat bets are made to satisfy contest requirements. Live odds are scrutinized in all remaining contest races and saver min. bets are placed on any live longshots.

2. Entry two is ditto above but only @ 50%: half the bankroll is bet initially, those winnings added to un-bet money, halved again, then on to the next bet, and so forth and so on...in other words, this progression allows for one loss after each win.

3. Bets are usually for Show, sometimes Place based on field size & projected payoffs. How we determine potential payoff?

4. Calculate based on your horse finishing in the money, then take from the rest of the field the top 3 based on pool size & drop number two from that group. That is a fairly realistic result: not ALL top 3 choices will finish in the money, while still realistically projecting the top fave to hit the board...gravy time if it does not.

5. Early in the contest, when our expected price is under $4.00, the entire bet goes to Show(or Place), but if the win odds are 7/2 or greater, then 2/3 will go to show, 1/3 to win. When the expected price is over $4 we tend to forego Win until its payoff nears $20.

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Top prize eligibility usually requires growing starting bankroll 4 to 10 times...in the money / grabbing one of the usually four national championship berths at stake should be accomplished somewhere between 4 to 6 times.

If starting bankrolls are $100 when say, a 25 / 35-1 longshot comes in, figure more than one person hit it with $10 on the nose....and in that group some will additionally have another winning $10 bet on some middle-priced winner + another $10 on some slightly-overlayed fave...for a total bankroll of @ 450-500.... so one would need to get the bankroll progression to about 6X starting size, then finish requirements off with $10 bets the rest of the way, esp. on the nose of any potential longshot contenders.

If two such longshots come in, figure one or two folks at least, will have both.

Three or more, count on multiple folks having all but one...so now you need 10-12 times starting size.

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Why don't we go for longshots ourselves? It's a lottery..some races will have multiple live longshots, so the contest becomes a glorified dart tournament... plus we feel we can handicap well. Additionally, it's real money, not play money at stake...taking wild shots with play money & ideally low entry fees is not as costly as when one gets to keep all accumulated winnings.

PS This last contest's format is slightly changed-- only win / place allowed. Our altered strategy here is 50% progression in a 2/1 - place/win format.

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Parimutuel Bets

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During the course we may find bettable opportunities at this or any other track-- we will post as we find them...they may run the gamut from exotic betting to Laying(betting to lose at an Exchange).

Day's Wrap Up

Kentucky Derby

We weren't overly impressed with anyone before this race, and the slow final time bore this out...how very pedestrian & ho-hum this year's 3yo crop is.

(It's one of the reasons we only took a flyer bet in the Superfecta pool(BTW nice payoff w/ the fave on top, co-fave third, fourth-fave second, & the fourth-place finisher not that much of a longshot at 28-1... 29K+. Almost $9 million bet into this pool--that's what allowing 20 separate betting interests w/ no coupled entry / field will do for you!),

Although the race looked promising when 22-4/5 & 46(actually was 46-1/5+ but only 46 was flashed onscreen) was hung up early...they all backed off Hard Spun and he throttled the pace down considerably: the 6F & 1M splits were fairly subpar.

Besides the winner, no one else did any real running at the end except for the 4th place finisher- who actually made up ground on the winner after having to swing out 10 wide turning for home.

***

Credit should still be given to the winning horse and connections though:

***

Jockey: Calvin "Borail" Borel turned in the stereotypical ground-saving ride he's become known for. This has been a sort of breakthrough year so far for this 20+ year veteran...he's been riding with extreme, obvious confidence: at the recent Keeneland meet he brought in some longshots and turned in some masterful rides on the Turf particularly, and these past few days at Churchill he's been on a zone.

Here in the Derby, he did crowd a horse or two when he cut over to the rail early and in the stretch, but those are slight indiscretions typically both unavoidable and forgiven due to the huge size of the field. The only thing we'd critique about the ride occurred very late:

excessive whipping at the end with the outcome kinda in the bag, as well as premature and overly-excited celebration just before the wire-- we briefly worried he'd fall off.

***

Trainer: Carl Naftzger broke the 2y0 Breeders Cup winner / 2yo champ hex while doing it his way--with only 2 prep races this year. Actually, I believe the latter contributed greatly to breaking the hex: horses get so much in steroids- to say nothing of antiobiotics & other medicines- to withstand the rigors of racing / serious training and help to heal expected minor injuries and illnesses. What this does to the typical precocious 2yo is stunt its growth and make it too heavy: bone plates fuse, virtually stopping vertical growth, while piling on extra bone & muscle. The resultant body type is more suited to sprints than to marathons-- at the same time its 2yo lightly-raced counterparts get a chance to grow up in more unimpeded fashion / end up taller by following year. Who would you favor to win the Boston Marathon--somebody muscular but short or someone taller, longer-legged, leaner?

Naftzger withstood all criticism and stuck to his game plan...he also demonstrated how much of a stand-up guy he is by telling jockey Borel early that the mount would remain his-- despite getting calls from just about every top-name jockey's agent.

***

Horse: Street Sense also deserves kudos for its athleticness: although he lags back early, he has quick acceleration & can make multiple moves in a race.

And his winning margin was deceivingly small-- the place horse was able to slow the pace down the backstretch in uncontested mode; had he been pressed, and thus finished out of the money-- Street Sense's winning margin would be 8+ lengths...maybe more with the tiring pacesetters causing extra traffic problems late.

So barring injury, unless someone very good is waiting in the sidelines and/or an extreme speed bias pops up at Pimlico or Belmont, Street Sense has an excellent chance to sweep the Triple Crown.

***

On a different note, most of the commentators / announcers for the Derby need to go:

Mike Battaglia, Tom Durkin, Tom Hammond, Bob Neumeier, and Kenny Rice have for years regaled us with their inane banter and interviews, along with useless MOTO analysis and "insights". This year's telecast sunk to new lows past their already-low standards, with too many examples to waste time actually having to type out here-- don't know how some past interviewee hasn't bitch-slapped one of them already.

They resemble a casting of Tatoo, Grandpa Munster, Mister Rogers, Lenny, Squiggy, and Pee Wee Herman.

We can just picture these "ignorant sluts" to paraphrase SNL, waking up every morning feeling so witty and insightful... so unexpendable in their line of work...puleeze!

If the commentary and interviewing is going to be so useless while performed by such unattractive & dull characters-- heck, the governor of Kentucky came off much wittier and entertaining-- you might as well substitute the Beulah Twins.

We can think of so many worthwhile substitutes-- how about some pedigree & form/insider insights with say, Lauren Stich, Joe Takach, Jan Rushton...how about some expert fig, pace, structured bets & handicapping commentary from say, Ernie Dahlman, Jim Cramer, Dave Schwartz, Ken Massa, etc.

And if not substitute entirely, at the very least they each can be interviewed / given a short segment to present.

***

DELAHOYA-MAYWEATHER

***

Fight didn't live up to its hype-- but that specter always hung in the balance coming in: what with Mayweather's moving up two classes, brittle hands, size disadvantage, but speed & age advantage...he could turn the fight boring and ugly.

ALL the announcers & commentarists here were very disingenous at the end, proclaiming the fans got their money's worth-- while we wouldn't exactly rate it a flop, it certainly didn't match the hype.

***

Mayweather: deserves the biggest knocks here...after so much running at the mouth he did very little to show how "great" he supposedly was.

***

Delahoya: still relies too much on his left, he needs to bang / even lead with that good right he has. And his jab almost disappeared for this fight-- he threw it infrequently early: when he did it worked, and he stopped throwing it altogether the last 4/5 rounds.

Apart from that he does get high marks for his blocking punches / defense(he had to crouch down & lunge / chase his more elusive opponent, thus leaving himself more vulnerable in the process) and conditioning / preparation / strategy(vis a vis being at a speed disadvantage).

We feel he needed someone more authoritarian in his corner-- a Dundee, Steward, Mayweather Sr. to point out--nee scream out to jab more. Now Roach did keep pointing that out, but in too soft / calm of a tone. Maybe Roach was more worried about having Delahoya conserve energy for late, for DLH was very tense from the get go. Mayweather, in stark contrast, was way too relaxed at all times-- and it showed in his lackluster effort.

***

As far as our bet, we thought we had lost it late-- that DelaHoya would get the decision...had he just jabbed even a little bit in the later rounds, instead of looking for one big opening, he likely would've got the nod.

133rd Ky. Derby 2007 ANALysis

Figures Chart available here: http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pSs3HzAvGM0BOfNCJP3tZcg

This year's running presents too many unknown factors, along with no outstanding locks...in our structured ticket below, of the first 6 contenders, any is just as liable to finish in the money as to trail the field at the finish. So, we will not make a serious investment; we will instead take a flyer on the Super. We will seek value and punish / downgrade contenders who project to attract more money.

Please realize above-mentioned and bet judiciously...after all, if we were so sure of our top two choices(longshots) we'd recommend Win wagers on them.

Before going any further: there's another bet today-- DelaHoya fight tonight. That will be a Dutch of DelaHoya win by KO & Mayweather to win fight outright.

Superfecta ticket:

20,6

with

1,3,8,10

with

18,5,7,17

with

12

640 combos.

Spreadsheet Abbreviations:

Calculations done in four stages, in order:

1. Based on figures, strongly weighted towards TPR.

2. Form cycle applied.

3. Workout form subsequent to last prep race, esp. over Churchill strip applied.

4. Final changes made based on Wet track, in order:

A. Race/workout performance

B. Wet breeding.

From Left to Right:

Post Position number

Whorse

Betting number- nothing provided yet... no entry / field designations. *see below for my rant on this.

ML odds.

Run---- Style from fastest to slowest: P(projects to set or dispute pace because of either having dominant early number or/and unwillingness to rate), OP(sets, disputes or prompts pace), BO(bit off- stalker, maybe prompter), CL(closer midpack, sometimes stalker), CLOS(closer- back of pack / straggler), CLOS FAR.

(Figure scale: 1.85 lengths per point.)

F1----- first half mile

POR---- number of race leader or closest opponent behind, if in lead.

Turn--- 2 furlong figure between first half mile and 6 furlong call.

E2----- 6F call

F3----- 6F to finish

TPR---- E2 + F3...we use this in lieu of a Final Fig.

VS----- same as POR

F1 + 3- serves as a tiebreaker of sorts...penalizing early sloth / awarding tractable early speed.

PP----- either projected OR highest-possible TPR

Form--- P(cycling upward, expect a gradual or better improvement from last or best effort), PP(very substantial improvement possible), PPP(huge, possibly dominating improvement possible), E(should duplicate last fig plus or minus a point or two), N(expect a figure decline, either due to declining form or because of facing a much higher race pace / class than it can handle)

Works-- workout form between last prep race & Derby post time...emphasis given to works over Churchill strip & the immediate 1½ weeks preceding Derby. P's number from one: very good impression, improving in form to two: outstanding impression, ready to run a career top / should make its presence felt in upcoming race to out of sight, ready to run by far the best race of its career & likely be a win contender. Neg - poor form or health W - will move up greatly in wet going vis a vis its estables dry track form.

Equipment & Medication changes.

Status-- this year left it blank-- refer to Superfecta ticket instead... you''ll see 2 win contenders, 4 solid in the money contenders, 4 have a chance to fill the bottom slot in your Tri's / Supers 1 might sneak into Super bottom slot if everything falls in place its way.

WET---- we're audibling with this category due to Weather... *(good wet breeding and or effort in wet race / workout) **(exceptional wet breeding or wet track record) ***(should contend for the win due to unbeaten wet record or big excuse in loss containing two or more dominating wet track efforts which could include a combination of any of the following: dominating win(s) by 3½+ lengths, usually in handily or ridden out fashion / multiple fastest of morning wet works). If left blank: Unknown...no wet races, not even wet works & wet breeding not especially good.

*BTW this is very poor service from Churchill Downs, as is the whole pre-Derby week...everything provided too late, including the famed PP Draw. They need to take a page from Boxing: how to better market by building anticipation. I would hold the Draw on the previous Sunday or Monday, Sunday garner much better ratings than the present weekday morning format. The way they do it now, it's only 1 to 1½ days before racetime when the final field & past performance data finally disseminate in print to the public-- this leaves too tight of a window especially for analysts & serious handicappers...exacerbated because another important day: KY Oaks falls on the eve.

Other missteps include not making a better event of the draw to determine order of selecting post positions, and not including the Oaks in the whole schema of things. Additionally, ESPN puts forth an extremely subpar effort with the draw-- they do not provide either a camera closeup or onscreen graphic for the purposes of detailing running progress!!!

Here's what i would do:

1. Make a whole weekend out of it--either switch the Oaks to Sunday, or add on Sunday a Grade 1/2 1-¼ Mile Dirt Stakes for older horses and/or a Grade 1 Turf Stakes.

2. Make a package of the the Oaks / Derby / Sunday Stakes-- have one combined televised Draw Day to Select Post Positions for all three, then a day or two later, in prime time, the actual Selection counterpart of it.

3. The program should be simultaneously streamed on the web.