UFC 90 Wagering opportunities

First of all:

whatever opponent we pick….and whether you take our advice and/or bet on your own--

“you will not go wrong if you blindly bet the + odds”. For, even though you may pick the better fighter, the judges may confound you, the ref can err, a fluke injury or ko can occur, etc. If you take too much prohibitive chalk, you will find yourself needing to win 2/3 to 3/4 of your decisions just to break into the black.

 

For tonight, we are keying on two fights:

1. Anderson Silva

Yes, the odds are prohibitive…and he’ll eventually lose one day… but not to this opponent. And with Silva, you won’t get any overconfidence or lack of training issues.

The odds are currently –675…. @ 14.82% profit.

 

2. Thiago Alves over Koschek +120, down from +130

We have no idea why Alves is rated underdog—his opponent cannot carry his jockstrap. However, Koscheck does have to style to muddle through the fight, keep it on the ground… and then who knows what the judges will decide….

 

SO….. we suggest the following betting plan:

1. Bet 2 Units on Silva AND

2. Bet most of the projected profit of above on Alves.

So, say your unit = 1K…. bet 2K on Silva and $300 on Alves. You may want to lower this last bet to say $250 to have a guaranteed profit / cover cost of sending bet funds to book, etc.

 

Other options:

Add Silva to all your parlays for the day.

 

IFFFF you like Silva opponent Cote, fight won’t go distance odds are –700.. a good way to have both fighters covered.

 

If you need some action bets at good value, Tyson Griffin @ +215 could be a possibility.

NOW, we are not touting him or betting this match…. but the value is obviously there.

 

EDIT: We neglected to specifically mention him, but the win by Junior Dos Santos @ +450 is a poster child / perfect example of our value mantra. Say you bet 5 fights @ 1K each… the payoff for this fight, @ 5.5K guarantees you a profit for the night! It won’t matter whether you lose all the rest / any other wins will just be gravy.

Boxing Mosley-Mayorga

Add to your parlays:

Fight won’t go the distance –150 (67% profit).

IF you don’t have any parlays and wish to do standalone betting, then take:

UNDER 9½ ROUNDS +105

For those of you advanced bettors that will need to reverse / hedge / dutch, the reverse play is:

Mosley Wins by Unanimous Decision(split decision win will lose your bet!!!) +170

OR:

Fight GOES the Distance  +130

EDIT: Almost got middled out--

the fight almost went the distance…. and one dweeb judge had Mayorga leading.

Actually, we don’t agree with the decision to rule the fight ended @ 2:59(one second before the end): the fight ended and Mayorga knockout was not saved by final bell… the fight WENT the distance AND Mayorga was knocked out.
So, some bettors should’ve been able to collect on both sides, depending on what exact props they chose:

Fight ends in KO

Fight goes the Distance

should both be winners.

Simulcast Picks of the Day Saturday September 20, 2008

PHA PHILADELPHIA PARK RACE 5

#5-- Should go wire to wire. It will be tough extracting value from exactas though-- it's hard to separate the other experienced runners 2, 3, 8...and they won't offer much odds value. If you have to play exactas, set the combo with the likely favorite, 8, as a hedge(breakeven)...and as well add the debuter #7 PLUS any other debuter whose odds are longer than #7.

A better option might be DD(w/ 4th race) or Pik3... although we won't be handicapping those other relevant races.

 

EDIT: We weren't around during racing, but the odds gods hopefully shone on you... esp. if you followed betting advice of next race-- which should be de rigeur ALWAYS... favor larger odds and eliminate or downgrade or use only as saver underlayed odds.
These are the odds of the entrants we mentioned: 11, 8, 6, 3, 8/5
The candidates turned out to not be as underlayed as we figured.

So, however you bet this race, you should've made money: exacta paid $155, TRI paid $1,210

 

BEL BELMONT PARK RACE 9 "GRADE II GALLANT BLOOM HANDICAP"

Severely underlayed & vulnerable bridgejumper-type favorite here:

Indian Blessing-- three reasons:

1. Figs have not improved this year(going by our numbers), while those of all its foes are currently ascending. This is a classic example of a precocious horse that early on beats up on foes that take longer to mature... to boot vs small & perhaps mediocre fields, usually while having its way on early uncontested leads. This type usually gets its comeuppance the second half of the year, when meeting foes that are catching up & passing in terms of growth... and its own growth(vertical) has topped out.

2. Race shape tilts toward chaos-- most of these can set the pace or rate...so maybe nobody wants the lead, someone steals it, most burn each other out in a duel...who knows....

3. There is very little incentive both race purse and future breeding value wise in a Grade II race for a multiple Grade I(& Breeders Cup) winner... having already achieved that status @ both routes and sprints.

Who to bet then? Just invert the Morning Line:

Porte Bonheur-- should offer outstanding value @ 12-1... with ascending numbers in spite of trip problems. Want another reason, hidden at that? Our figs rate her tops in here.

Zada Belle-- mini-me version of above @ 6-1

Elope / Sugar Swirl-- one of these could steal a lone lead...former holds much better value @ 8-1(as well is so lightly-raced that it could be anything / has the most upside potential)... latter is underlayed second ML fave.

In conclusion, we rate them in this order:

Porte Bonheur & Elope equally.

then

Zada Belle

then the two underlayed faves.

 

EDIT:  4 horse field and two encounter trip problems...

One scratch...one contender became underlayed...blah race to bet. Although if you did, the previous race should've put you firmly in the black for the day.

Simulcast Picks of the Day Tuesday September 2, 2008

 

PHA PHILADELPHIA PARK RACE 9

The winner will be one of the following three:

#5 The most likely... & to boot not undervalued. Possesses Early Pace(2½ lengths), Turn Time(2 lengths), Closing Fraction(1½ lengths) & Final Time(7 lengths) superior to all here.

#2 Could be anything / won with plenty of reserves left... but will get an acid test vs #5 here. Still, a bet should carry value-- judging by 6-1 Morning Line.

#1 Another one that should move forward from impressive debut, overcoming traffic problems to post decent time, nonwithstanding claming class rank. Although it is the most likely to pick up the pieces should the early pace collapse, it may yet again encounter traffic problems while stuck down on the fence... and will likely by underlayed...as ML fave.

The rest are really up against it here:

#6 Second career race, first time lasix & the troubled debut-- broke sluggishly, then rushed to set the pace while wide-- signal a possible impending fig improvement...or maybe not: could be strung out 4-wide in a 5-horse pace duel while will not getting a clear lead, & to boot having to run a longer distance of ground. And don't expect a great odds premium, as Morning Line fourth fave. At best you could do a reverse Exacta Saver on top of main contenders, but even then, only if the prices are large enough.

#4 Yes, it's a closer in a race chock full of early speed...and it sports improving pace and final numbers...but all that still leaves it 15 lengths behind the projected final time here. And will offer poor value as the ML third fave.

#3 Won despite a not so smooth start, but that bottom maiden claiming rank is very telling: Early Pace was some 10 lengths slower than what it could face here... Final Time almost 20 lengths slower than the projected final time here.

#7 Even worse than above...can't even win yet at bottom maiden claiming level.

 

Depending on how the earlier races run, scratches, etc. we will decide on either # 6 or 4 for a LAY bet... as well as any possible exotics bets.

 

EDIT: no one unduly favored... exacta box of win contenders returns almost a $5- equivalent payoff on total investment.

2008 Del Mar Handicapping Challenge Forty-second & Labor Day

Next to last day.

#7 second pick.

#8 first pick.

Not our day though-- #8 drops from 30 to 14.... #7 goes from 20 to 40

And both numbnuts go up to contest the pace...@ 7 furlongs on synthetic surface... unbefriggin' lievable.

Simulcast Picks of the Day Monday September 1, Labor Day 2008

 

SAR SARATOGA RACE 10 GRADE 1 HOPEFUL STAKES

 

WIN CANDIDATES

#8 CRIBNOTE----------------- Race shapes up for him to mow them all down late; may be the best two year old this year. And at larger odds than main foe, just might be the best bet of the season.

#4 MUNNINGS---------------- Talented speedster eligible to take them all the way.

 

SAVERS / LOWER SPOTS

#6 MEDAGLIA D'ONORE---- Offers fantastic value, bbuuttttt...MUST fulfill the following three:
clean start, clean trip, continue fig improvement.

#1 BREAK WATER EDISON-- Small though unlikely chance at the win IFFF several things fall into place:
it continues improvement of both pace and final figs, it's able to stalk pace closest of all from the rail, speedsters tire each other out, and #8 encounters trip trouble.
It won't offer much value though, as third ML fave.

BOTTOM SLOTS EXOTICS

#3 COGNITO------------------ MUST rate / not get involved in pace duel to have a chance...as well as get a trouble-free ride.

#2 DESERT PARTY----------- MUST continue improvement to have a chance at the bottom slot of Tri / Super. Won't offer much value either, as fourth ML fave.

#5 VINEYARD HAVEN------- Not a whale lot to recommend, but could surprise a bit back on dry footing-- and don't often get the chance at double digit odds with Trainer Frankel.

 

LAY(lose / tossout) CANDIDATES

#7 NOTONTHESAMEPAGE-- You can safely eliminate this underlayed horse from Win consideration. It won't get a clear open lead here, has to race an extra furlong, and its other pace competitor, #4, has faster Pace & Final numbers despite hitting the gate in its debut; as well factor in its foe's expected improvement in second career race.
#7 will be more cut out for routes with easier early paces next year.
Its only chance to even pick up a minor award here is if it can rate just off #7 @ a slower early pace-- it's removing blinkers in preparation for that...it will also need #7 to 'cooperate' w/ either a bad break or by not sending too fast early in this long sprint.

 

THE WAY TO  BET THIS RACE FOR A POSSIBLY LARGE PAYOFF

1. Go to a Betting Exchange / Trade and LAY #7-- should pay somewhere between $2.25 - 2.45. Use that projected payoff to:

2. Play Supers, but structure tickets to avoid more than two single-digit entrants in any one combo. Possible examples:

Firstly, bet 1K Lay 7...this will give you a coupla hundred. Secondly, with our main choice, let's make an exception & cover most possible combos underneath it, irregardless of odds.

8 with
4/6/1 with
3/5///4/6/1 with
2///3/5///4/6/1
48 combos @ triple per combo than the bottom 2 tickets

4 with
8 with
1/2/3/5/6 with
1/2/3/5/6
20 combos @ double per combo than the bottom 2

1 with
8 with
3/4/5/6 with
2///3/4/5/6
16 combos

6 with
8 with
1/2/3/4/5 with
1/2/3/4/5///7
25 combos

Field size makes this bet kinda low in value-- if any longshot gets scratched, then a better bet might be:

3. Doubles / Pick Whatevers using 8 & 4...6 as small Bud Longshot or Saver.

 

THE WAY TO  BET THIS RACE FOR A SURE PAYOFF

Check back near post time-- there are several options, depending on odds & pool sizes:

1. LAY 7 No decent price offered. We almost posted a substitute choice for LAY: #1... but that post position is awfully dangerous to LAY.

2. 8 to Show or Place...maybe even a dutch one of those pools and Win. This is what made the most sense: 2 Units Show & 1 Unit Win @ Exchange slightly over 9/2 odds. Horse didn't win, but you still got an equivalent payoff on your total investment of almost $2.47.

3. Win Dutch 4 & 8...that's best done at an Exchange-- where there's enough odds to also cover savers on 6 & 1. Not enough profit to cover everything.

4. 8 win Dutched to Reverse Exacta 4/8. Quiniella would be ideal...but stupid NYRA offers that only on some races. Woulda lost...and didn't compare safety-wise with option 2.

EDIT: So Frankel jumps all the way up beyond our 3rd & 4th place slots. To add insult to injury, @ a paltry 9-1. Tell us that the vet wasn't juicing today and that the inner circle wasn't tipped off. What a crock. As for our heroes, another couple of crocks:

#5 was making a winning move, but blew the turn to wind up in the parking lot...still recomposed itself to re-pass all others again-- except for the winner.
#4 repeated gate problem...was unhurried early, then gradually closed while very wide to finish third.
And, #'s 1/2/3 played bumper cars at the start...par for the course at this racing age.

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

LAD LOUISIANA DOWNS RACE 8

#3-- Lays over this field.

#4-- Second Best.

#'s 6, 5, 1-- Fight it out for lesser spoils.

#7-- Would have to improve immensely to contend here...on the other hand, should offer a good price.

#'s 2 & 8-- can not only be tossed out, but are as well severely underlayed.

#8 scratched...pace scenario a bit cloudy-- #2 has very inferior pace fig, but is only confirmed pacesetter. #3 @ 1/5. PASSSSSSS

EDIT: wasn't expecting to see #'s 3 & 4 duel for the early lead.

And actually, there was money to be made with this triple-- esp. since 5/6/1 were longshots-- coulda done something like this:

main ticket-- 3 with 4 with 6/5/1, then reverse for a lesser amount the place and show positions.
saver ticket-- 4 with 3 with 6/5/1. Only 9 combos total.

 

DMR DEL MAR RACE 5 I'M SMOKIN 100k STAKES

Wide open race...a lot will depend on riding tactics and who gets a good trip.

 

WIN CONTENDERS

#7--- eligible to take it all...decent price too. Lordgivemealift could turn out to be a nice horse...could also get cooked in a pace duel here.

#9--- very dangerous at a price. Negatives: needs a fast pace of race to do the most damage, & may not get it here.

#2--- ditto above, except as an underlayed ML favorite.

LOWER SLOTS & WIN SAVERS

These are a notch below above, but since none of those are cinch, then the value odds among these, if any, can be bet in the top slot:

#8--- a revert to closing style makes it dangerous, to say nothing of top jock Bejarano jumping aboard. Won't offer exceptional value though.

#11-- won debut despite traffic problems, expect a much improved fig for its second career race.

#1--- can get a piece stalking from the rail. Today's Pace of Race may be too quick to its liking though...and won't offer much value.

BOTTOM SLOTS EXOTICS

#3--- won wide-trip debut. May get a nice(or horrible) trip today from that inside post. Expect an improved fig in second career race, and at a better price than:

#10-- won wide-trip debut, but the trip today may wind up even wider. Nevertheless, expect an improved fig today.

EDIT: Charge of the Light Brigade finish--two underlays had to take first two spots: 2/1/10/11

 

DMR DEL MAR RACE 9 GRADE 1 DEBUTANTE STAKES

There doesn't seem to be a dominant & able pacesetter here. As such, the race can be stolen by someone alert, or can descend into chaos.

TOP 5 CONTENDERS:

11/8/5/7/3

EXOTICS LOWER SLOTS

10/2/6/4

longshots in red       

Okie dokie-- Exactas:

Box 11/8/5/7 for 4 times as much per combo as the LAST sequence.

Key Wheel 11/8/5/7 OVER 10/6/4 for 2 times as much per combo(half of above sequence)

Reverse Key Wheel 10/6/4 OVER 11/8/5/7 for half again as much(quarter of first sequence) plus one time 5 over 2.
37 total combos.

Hold off on above exactas for a bit....

EDIT: We left and got back too late. Good thing, as two of our main contenders, 7 & 8, went up to contest/press early lead. We need to hold a seminar for jockeys out there: 7 furlongs on synthetic, you hold back and move late...especially if your horse is not a pacesetter by nature. Crappy, crappy meet with artificially high purses & subpar racing.

 

EVD EVANGELINE DOWNS RACE 9 LAFAYETTE 100k STAKES

#'s 4 & 3 tower over this field-- two horse-race.

The rest, in order of preference: #'s 7, 8, 2

Racing canceled.

 

MTH MONMOUTH PARK RACE 9

Look for a pace meltdown here. Toss out #'s 1/5/2.  Exacta Box #'s 3/6/4

2 Scratched... now things get dicey early-pace wise: 6 will likely elect to stalk/press, but 1 & 5 are inconsistent pacesetters. We don't wanna chance a lone frontrunner beating us. Anyhow, there's no value here with our main contenders-- 3 & 6...nor with anyone else for that matter. We're tempted to LAY 1...very undervalued...but: PASS

EDIT 2: actually, let's hook #3 back and forth in exactas with ALL...put a bit more on combos with #6, less with #1.

EDIT 3:  and those of you who followed our original advice quadrupled your exacta investment... had the triple too.
They made the garbage #1 favored...but those odds weren't reflected in Exchanges-- a very underwhelming $2.90 LAY price offered(should be more like $3.40-3.80)

 

RP REMINGTON PARK RACE 7

#3 Looks strong here-- hook it in exactas with 4 & 1. 7/2 all way down to 3/5... no value-- PASS.

#2 Is a tossout and LAY candidate.

EDIT: #'s 4 & 1 unexpectedly cooked each other in an early duel.

 

RP REMINGTON PARK RACE 9 CLEVER TREVOR 50k STAKES

#3 Looks very strong here.

#2 ML fave looks very underlayed.

#1 We like it better than #2, and carries a lot more value.

#5 Has a chance if pace melts down.

#'s 4 & 6-- Projected Pace of Race looks to hot for them-- they'll likely bring up the rear.

SUGGESTED EXACTA TICKETS:

#'s 3 & 5 hooked back and forth with each other and over 1 & 2.

EDIT: Exacta 5/3(4-1 & Even Money) pays whopping $34

2008 Del Mar Handicapping Challenge Forty-first Day Sunday August 31

The ignomity of it all: we take #1 @25-1...& a good chance of odds drifting to cap...only to watch them plummet to half that. To boot we don't get the stalking trip we figured on, but a determined effort for early lead...@ 9 furlong distance. To add further insult, someone we liked-- though not at the odds-- #4, wins @ just a couple points less: 10-1.

What a crappy Del Mar season.

2008 Del Mar Handicapping Challenge Fortieth Day Saturday August 30

Yucchhh...........

Simulcast Picks of the Day Saturday August 30, 2008

PHA-- PHILADELPHIA RACE 6

Race where no one has run to par. Additionally, the odds-on favorite is vulnerable and the obvious contenders sport suspicious $$ drops and/or layoffs.

1-- Its pace figure is inferior to #8...thus will not get an open breather while having to run faster early...this is a very long sprint...you do the math.

So who is eligible to win then?

6-- Its lone 2yo race, despite slow break, is alone enough to contend-- w/o even taking into account a better break, expected improvement as a 3yo, etc. HOWEVER, the long break and steep class drop, w/o at least one more try at the MSW level-- or even a higher claiming price-- especially after attracting substantial handle in its debut-- makes it a tossout... to boot, it likely won't even command value odds.

8-- We hate to see such a long layoff after a sudden, improved effort. Still, it's an obvious contender. However, should something be wrong with it or doesn't break well, #1 could then be left alone on an open lead.

7-- Eligible to pick up the pieces of the pace duel, expect improved effort after an entire ½ year of races on the wrong surface and/or with trip mishaps.

2 and 5-- Very, very interesting debuters. Will carry tons of odds value in a race with subpar foes(ergo can still win the race with a BELOW average effort). VERY LIVE, do NOT leave out of your tickets.

3-- Debuter with supbpar connections and pedigree leaning towards late development and route racing.

4-- Not a lot to recommend numbers-wise...will carry a price though... doesn't need to improve by that much to have a chance here against these numbnuts.

 

EDIT: There's your $600 Triple, folks-- 7/8/2 ... 7 went off at decent 7½-1.

 

CRC-- CALDER RACE 5

Race boils down to two possibilities:

A. Which pacesetter imposes its will: 1 or 4...and whether a possible multi-horse duel cooks them enough for:

B. Whether one of these closers: 2 or 8 will have a good, clean enough trip to run them down.

Dang, scratches leave field down to these four: 1(Even)/3(20-1)/4(3-5)/5(8-1)

 

MTH-- MONMOUTH PICK THREE RACES 6/7/8

RACE 6: 2(4-1)/1(3-1)/7(6-1) ....(odds of main tossouts: 9-5, 5, 6)
RACE 7: 2(4-1)/3(9/2) ............(odds of main tossouts: 3, 7-2, 6, 6)
RACE 8: 4(3-1)/7(12-1)/2(15-1) W/ savers 1(9-5)/3(10-1)/6(4-1)/5(5-2)

TICKETS--

MAIN ONE:
2/1/7 with
2/3 with
4/7/2
18 combos

BACKUP--
btw we're gonna include #7 in the sixth...should be backup, but its odds will be ok.
2/1/7 with
2/3 with
1/3/6/5
24 combos

IFFF you wish to have more money, in this backup, on the higher-odds entrants, then create:

BACKUP2--

2/1/7 with
2/3 with
3/6
12 combos

Since we didn't pare anyone off first coupla races, the main ticket will need to have substantially more money per combo bet.

EDIT: 6th race--give bonus points to #1, none to #7.

Those of you real afraid of #4, can hedge your Pk3 tickets by keying it on top of exactas here w/ main contenders: 4 over 2/1/7 Do it Dutch style, this way you get a guaranteed return of 3-1

EDIT2: We could've also just included #4 in our Pk3's.... but this way we'd be more likely to cash something in case someone surprises in the following legs.

 

MTH-- MONMOUTH RACE 6

Looks like a possible pace meltdown-- although that's not a guarantee. Horses' connections can read the DRF...sometimes you get most holding back, allowing one or two to steal away early.
Who we like in order:

2-- Look for a fig jump from troubled debut. As long as it gets a clean trip / not buried inside.

1-- Whichever one of these two that gets the better trip should win here.

 

7-- May be able to stalk duelers, take over, and hold closers off...esp. if they encounter traffic problems.

 

5-- Unlikely...Actually a LAY candidate. ALTHOUGH its new connections may have something up their sleeves.

4-- Actually possesses best pace and final numbers...to boot it can rate a bit. BUT it's infected with seconditis & will be severely underlayed. At best it should be used in bottom slots only & NOT under other favored entrants. LAY candidate.

 

3-- Still more unlikely. Loses rider Cotto to boot.

In conclusion, we would only use 2/1/7 on top. Bet a little extra on 2...maybe on 7 as well if odds are generous...bet even less on 1 if odds wind up very low.

EDIT: #'s 1 & 2 bumped each other at the start, trailed the field early.

 

MTH-- MONMOUTH RACE 7

Two possible winners-- either 2 holds them all off OR 3 does it from behind.

The other two highly-regarded contenders, 1 & 7 are only lower slots contenders.... and will be severely underlayed if vying for favoritism.

EDIT: #'s 2 & 3 went off @ 5/2 & 7/2. However, at an exchange you got 9/2 & 5. So, if you did a Win Dutch-- at the track your return would be just over Double, while @ exchange you'd almost Triple your starting bet.

EDIT2: #'s 3 & 4 bothered each other at the start, 3 trailed the field early, finished a fairly close fourth..

 

MTH-- MONMOUTH RACE 8

4-- Might coast all the way on an unchallenged early lead.

7-- Has been saddled all of 2008 with races that don't demonstrate its true capabilities: from initial two off a long layoff to wrong surface / distance to troubled and/or vs bias trips. Great value.

5-- An enigma inside a riddle wrapped in a question-- at times looks like a future star, at times throws up mediocre figs without a seeming excuse. Low ML odds & Bravo aboard guarantee little value. Let's leave this one for underneath slots .... possibly savers on top, but only hooked w/ longshots. NOW....if the public lets this horse get off 4-1 or over, then it's another story.

1-- Capable of taking it all, but as ML fave, let's relegate to underneath slots & on top of longshots....just like 5.

6-- Has been crying for a race with a fast early pace in order to do the most damage. Will offer better value than 5 & 1...although not too much more.

2-- Ditto above, EXCEPT it will sport very, very juicy odds. Deserves inclusion in top slot just on that alone.

3-- Mini-me version of above 2. Among the closers, it will all depend on who gets best trip.

EDIT: #4 stumbled at the start, rushed to the lead, then faded to just lose the show photo.
#6 much the best despite 4 wide trip.
#1 had perfect stalking trip on the fence, which opened up for it to scoot thru... still couldn't get the job done.

 

MTH-- MONMOUTH PICK THREE RACES 6/7/8

RACE 6: 2(4-1)/1(3-1)/7(6-1) ....(odds of main tossouts: 9-5, 5, 6)
RACE 7: 2(4-1)/3(9/2) ............(odds of main tossouts: 3, 7-2, 6, 6)
RACE 8: 4(3-1)/7(12-1)/2(15-1) W/ savers 1(9-5)/3(10-1)/6(4-1)/5(5-2)

TICKETS--

MAIN ONE:
2/1/7 with
2/3 with
4/7/2
18 combos

BACKUP--
btw we're gonna include #7 in the sixth...should be backup, but its odds will be ok.
2/1/7 with
2/3 with
1/3/6/5
24 combos

IFFF you wish to have more money, in this backup, on the higher-odds entrants, then create:

BACKUP2--

2/1/7 with
2/3 with
3/6
12 combos

Since we didn't pare anyone off first coupla races, the main ticket will need to have substantially more money per combo bet.

EDIT: 6th race-- give bonus points to #1, none to #7.

Those of you real afraid of #4, can hedge your Pk3 tickets by keying it on top of exactas here w/ main contenders: 4 over 2/1/7 Do it Dutch style, this way you get a guaranteed triple return

EDIT2: We could've also just included #4 in our Pk3's.... but this way we'd be more likely to cash something in case someone surprises in the following legs.

 

DMR-- DELMAR RACE 7

Of the non-debuting horses, we rate them in the following order:

12-- stands out over the rest: has the best fig by 3 lengths... and as well early pace fig by 5 lengths.

8-- barely edges out 7, and at much better odds
7-- then there's a 4 length gap to the next two, who also sport worse early pace numbers.

6-- edges out 5 but lags way farther back early.
5-- be advised, though, that:

NONE of the experienced runners can run to race pars, so.... inspect very minutiously (don't know why the spellchecker is flagging this word) the debuters!!!

EDIT: Annnddd bingo! Firster #4 wins, and coming in second-- #5...the best value of the five entrants with a race under their belt. #12 was done in by the post, being unusually close to early pace and strange, meandering trip... none of the debuters went for the lead, forcing horses more accustomed to closing to take over that chore.

 

EVD-- EVANGELINE DOWNS RACE 9

6-- Stands out. The rest fight it out for second, they are--- in order:

1-- Poor value, as its entrymate has no chance, although looks second best.

4

7

Tossouts: 1A & 2 The latter is a LAY candidate.

 

EDIT: Pretty much went as prognosticated. Of note, #2 seemed to be making a threatening move but shuffled back in the stretch....although it's debatable whether it was going to reach the leader.  Paid $2.40 Lay price btw.

2008 Del Mar Handicapping Challenge Thirty-ninth Day Friday August 29

No choice(mathematically-speaking re the contest) but to stick to #'s 2 & 3... at this juncture we have to disregard likely winner for highest price, no matter how hopelessly outclassed-- the first four finishers just towered over the rest figs-wise.

2008 Del Mar Handicapping Challenge Thirty-eighth Day Thursday August 28

We went down in flames with the only cap horse here, #10. We actually liked as well the win & place horses, but at this stage of the contest their odds would not do it for us. We did NOT like our choice...but really have no choice this late in the contest: we need cap winners.

#7, the winner, was let go off much higher than its 6-1 Morning Line, but at odds in the teens, would really not help us.

The place horse, #4, was a longshot that we felt had a much better chance than #10... but at odds in the low 20's....

Simulcast Picks of the Day Thursday August 28, 2008

CRC CALDER RACE 1

This race does not have a reliable, committed AND dominant pacesetter...could wind up as a fast multi-horse early duel, the opposite-- tentative, slow early bunchup, or even possibly a stolen, lone lead by anyone.

It does not seemingly offer much single-race Exotics value... maybe DD / Pk3 is doable depending on the contender odds in those later races.

Possible Winners:

6-- Looks like a righteous favorite: is lightly-raced w/ ascending pace & final figs, something you rarely see in low claiming ranks. To boot, it's coming off a not so great trip and gets a rider switch to the Jerry Bailey of Calder. Top Contender. Don't be too enthused, though: it's ML fave & there are other contenders.

8-- Similar profile to above, only to a lesser extent. It's coming off two brutal trips & getting a rider switch to an experienced journeyman. The only chink in its armor is that it hasn't YET posted a decent turn time...this could be a function of bad trips & rides so far-- or a permanent defect. The pp draw is not great BUT it affords it a chance to track & sit just off its main rival. Win contender if some misfortune befalls #6, although note it's listed as ML second fave / possible race co-fave.

2-- Faced a much superior Pace of Race last time, than any of these are used to...possible...maybe at a price.

4-- Could wind up as lone pacesetter in the clear, HOWEVER-- early pace number is inferior. Not likely, but if offered at sufficiently high odds, could merit a Win slot saver in your exotics.

1-- Rail horses with a closing or pressing style always pose a dilemma-- either they get perfect or brutal trip...esp. depending on whether you didn't bet them, LOL.
Last out it posted a decent number in spite of practically losing all chance at the start, then being rushed to the lead. However, it will offer very poor value as ML third fave while being piloted by inferior jock.

The following horse, although NOT a win candidate, is very reliable, and usually posts its usual fig no matter how fast / slow the Pace of Race:

3-- Merits inclusion in the lower slots of your exotics.

Tossouts:

7-- inferior figs and seemingly poor form to boot. Although, any large longshot, as this horse projects to be-- is excusable to insert in bottom of exotics slots. Anyone can clunk up in the money, after the main contenders get done beating each other up...  it doesn't hurt to include large longshots in the lower slots for $1.

LAYS:

for those of you with access to Betting Exchanges-- we will look to lay either 1 or 3...preferrably 3 IFFFFF offered @ playable odds.

EDIT: 1 offered @ $2.37....we passed...mainly because it was not our first choice(for throwout), &  the more others get scratched, the less the chances of losing(the opposite of when Backing: betting a horse to win). As well post position 1 is very dangerous to Lay, no matter how bad the contender-- esp. one not part of the early pace. In fact, we only like to Lay someone on the rail that we can safely toss out as a projected disadvantaged frontrunner.

And one more reason: the very first race of the day is good to watch in case of any unexpected bias.. weather patterns can greatly influence track maintenance.

Of course, if there was plenty of betting value, we might've been tempted to make an exception-- but this race just screamed PASS.

IN MONEY BETS:

6 could be a candidate, depending on whether race betting develops into multiple horses vying for favorite-- as opposed to one heavy favorite. Win odds and lower pool handles will decide this come post time.

EDIT: 1/5

We were getting ready to suggest Win Dutching 6 & 2... then the odds plunged to the bottom on the fave.

Race unfolded(& ended) pretty much as thought. Don't know what the rider of #1 was doing attending such a multi-horse pace duel.

 

CRC CALDER RACE 4

Quick, concise analysis-- we're passing this race.

1-- Looks like top contender. MUST get clean trip...not crazy about the jock.

6-- May be able to clear early... a better alternative than getting hung outside its main two early rivals.

4-- May be the best pacesetter...has faced much better while getting outrun late...may also finish up the track.

5-- Looks like a tossout:  vulnerable to today's Pace of Race...very underlayed.

 

Other possibles, should 1 encounter trouble & speedsters get cooked by speed duel:

8 & 3

The riders of #'s 6 & 5 must've been intimidated & overly impressed by the odds of the favorite: #6, who can set the fastest fractions of any here, backed off fairly slow fractions, allowing the fave a clear early lead...while #5 took way back to oblivion. ANNNddddd, for the second time today we notice Segundo Caballero too close to the early pace while on a closer drawn on the rail-- only this time his mount fell back a bit & re-rallied.

 

CRC CALDER RACE 7

Race looks like a tossup. Here's two you might throw OUT:

4-- which is also a prime LAY candidate.

8-- we're not crazy about...although it's hard to get odds like those on Lopez.

We backed off Laying #4 because #3, the only other pace rival, sometimes does not race on the lead-- exactly what happened today, allowing #4 to set a lone lead and just last at the wire.

 

CRC CALDER RACE 8

3 looks strongest here: superior turn time & early pace...dropping from higher level.... Pascacio Lopez aboard.

1 looks like a LAY candidate.

The winner, #6, took a ton of money in debut for 50K tag-- 9/5...and again took a ton on the drop here to 12½K-- 5/2...and aired. Our choice, #3, needs to learn to relax: stumbled out of the gate and then rushed up to the lead-- only to have to be snatched up to prevent running up on the heels of the frontrunners...effectively dooming its chances.

 

DMR DELMAR RACE 4

This is who we like, in order...notice the gaps / groupings(ML in parentheses to ensure odds / value guide our betting here):

#11(6-1)

#4(30-1)

#10(5-2)

_______

#3(3-1)

_______

#2(5-1)

#6(6-1)

_________

#9(20-1)

#1(12-1)

#8(15-1)

 

You can base your Super ticket on those... for example:

#11(6-1) / #4(30-1) / #10(5-2)

with

#3(3-1) / #11(6-1) / #4(30-1) / #10(5-2)

with

#2(5-1) / #6(6-1) / #3(3-1) / #11(6-1) / #4(30-1) / #10(5-2)

with

#9(20-1) / #1(12-1) / #8(15-1) / #2(5-1) / #6(6-1) / #3(3-1) / #11(6-1) / #4(30-1) / #10(5-2)

= 216 Combos.

Get into the habit of writing ML & actual odds next to saddlecloth number... and as the actual odds diverge, you can move up or down a notch or two(or even eliminate) the affected selectees, as appropriate.
That helps you save money / pare down a ticket when necessary, as well as catch / reward higher payoffs.

2008 Del Mar Handicapping Challenge Thirty-seventh Day Wednesday August 27

Only short odds today....pass.

Simulcast Picks of the Day Wednesday August 27, 2008

SARATOGA RACE 2

The only thing to report here is that #7 looks like very poor value(2nd ML) & will likely be overwhelmed by a faster than accustomed to Pace of Race. We recommend that you leave it out of your exotics tickets, and those of you with access to an Exchange, should LAY(bet that it will NOT Win) it.

Edit: paid a bit over $2.60... a very decent Lay price.

 

MONMOUTH RACE 3

Win Candidates:

Race looks like a 'possible' race meltdown, favoring a closer.

Who we like, in order:

3-- Will likely lay closest to frontrunners, and be able to take over late.

1-- This pacesetter has the early numbers to wire the field. It is NOT a likely winner though, in light of negative class drops. HOWEVER, one must respect a possible loose frontrunner at Monmouth...to boot at a price. You just never know-- the jocks on the other frontrunners may decide to allow it to scamper alone, figuring it is physically compromised. This will be a win or finish last type, so what you can do is hook it up in Exotics exclusively in the win slot.

2-- the best pacesetter...improving and rateable...again, speed always dangerous at this oval.

4-- backup closer, in case #3 suffers some trip misfortune(bottled up inside for one) or physical ailment(headache? lol) today. We don't like it that much, as it seems to be infected with seconditis, but should be played because the early pace will likely collapse.

5-- second best pacesetter. Yes, it's a bit down the contender line, but a case can be made for a win: firstly-- it's improving, second-- there's a good chance #1 won't run a lick today, and should #2 suffer some start mishap(look at the head-on start video-- these animals often break like bumper cars), it would leave it on a lone lead.

Eliminations:

#6 is a false favorite-- will have to run faster early than accustomed to AND will not get the luxury of an open lead like in the past. We recommend you toss it. Lay it in Exchanges.

 

So, let odds be your guide in how you bet this race. For example, make exacta tickets thusly:

1 over 3 & 4. IF it wins, it will have run the other speedsters into the ground, so toss them.

3 over 4, 2 & 5.

4 over 3, 2 & 5.

5 over 3 & 4.

You can play a little more on the lesser-paying combos AND/OR less on tickets including 1 & 5, as those are more saver / backup AND will be longshots anyhow.

 

Edit: Exacta paid $47+

Lay paid a whopping $3. If you parlayed the first two lays, you've almost doubled your money

 

MONMOUTH RACE 5

# 3 offers the best value here....#1 can be totally tossed out.
Who can finish second? Who knows-- #5 is wildly inconsistent not only in final times, but in the type of early pace it sets...world-class one race, very slow the next. #6 will be facing a much tougher pace today AND W/O being clear on the lead.

Edit: #1 late scratched. Too bad, we were thinking of a Place bet, with the Lay Parlay money, on the winner #3.
BTW we rarely bet Win: we stick to extremes-- either Show / Place or Exactas / Tris / Supers.

 

MONMOUTH RACE 8

Not a lot of value here.

#5-- can wire these... is it ready off such a long layoff?

#6-- has back numbers to win here...however, seems to be infected with seconditis... BUT attracts Lezcano aboard...hhmmmm let odds be your final judge.

#3-- can win or finish last. Seems to be going down the class ladder...Lezcano jumps off.

#7-- has a chance, esp. because NONE of the above can be blindly relied upon.

The next one has a chance at the bottom slots ONLY:

#4

The others are hopelessly outclassed:

#'s 2 & 1.

Blech.... odds too low on everyone here.....

 

ELLIS PARK RACE 6

Nothing too detailed to report, except that #9(3rd ML) is a very poor value: sports lousy figs and that running style is a kiss of death at this track / distance. LAY it.
It MIGHT clunk up in the money, but NOT Win: there are just too many others that can beat it:

#'s 10, 2 & 3 are itching to make up for tardy starts last out & sport various changes like jock, blinkers, lasix... & don't forget to calculate the possibilty of a marked improvement in second lifetime race for two of them.
As well, all three debuters look live in here, to boot, only one horse in here has topped the race pars for pace or final time: #10

 

Edit: NO money to be made here...to boot a large field to deal with. We were offered just under $2.32 payoff on #9 and decided it was too measly. However, if YOU took it and kept the LAY PARLAY going, you're now @ 230%. Once you hit 300%, pull back original unit + 1 unit profit, and restart a new progression.

 

ELLIS PARK RACE 9

We won't be betting this race, but: #8 offers very, very good value...while #3 is the totally underlayed opposite.

Edit: Looks like we were on the same wavelength as everyone else, as our choice became very undervalued-- drifting between 8/5 & 2-1, and the projected undervaluee went off at a smidgen under 3-1...and actually won.

 

ARLINGTON PARK RACE 7

We're going to be LAYING #8(co-second ML)... it looks like it won't be able to handle today's expected Pace of Race.

Edit: wound up being favored... don't know why: Bill Mott doesn't use cobra venom(squeaky clean trainer) & Rene Douglas(the Jerry Bailey of Chicago tracks) wouldn't've been allowed to carry the horse during the race anyhow. Got a sliver under $2.60 payoff.

 

SACRAMENTO FAIR RACE 4

Heavy ML fave #1 obviously looks strong... although it will likely be pushed by the live debuter... no money to be made, and no certainty either. However, since four of these area closely bunched odds-wise behind the fave, we may be able to find playable LAY odds:

we will look first at #5, then at #3.

Edit: First choice 5 offered @ $2.29 - 2.32, second choice 3 offered @ $2.10....guess which we took?
If YOU've been matching our LAY Parlay, you should be @ 294%, almost triple your starting unit.340%...time to pull back & re-start. We passed once, are @ 269%.296%

We recommend you pull back now, since only one more betting race remains today, we'll post amounts under that race.

 

DEL MAR RACE 7

Win Candidates:

#5-- the one to beat...projects to be alone on the lead AND to boot is improving both pace and final time from race to race. The fly in the ointment is already-beaten #8, who may go on a kamikaze dueling mission with blinkers added. If so:

#7-- can take it all...what with getting an extra ½ furlong + a possible huge fig leap in its second career race. SCR

These next are more saver / bottom exotics slots candidates. Their win chance depends on the top pacesetter getting cooked AND the top closer suffering a bad trip.

Let's move both the following to the scratchee's slot... as they're both double-digit odds.

#'s 6 & 3 The former should be offered at generous odds... for that reason alone it could even deserve a Win Slot Saver bet.

And let's relegate the following two(2 & 9) to bottom of exotics slots ONLY....AND not together or directly underneath #5(in other words, ONLY one fave/co-fave per ticket.

A further notch below those is:

#2-- MUST break cleanly AND get a clear trip(not get bottled up inside or forced to loop everyone)... will likely be UNDERLAYED.

An even further notch below above BUT offering great value:

#9-- is improving numbers-wise, but needs a fast, contested pace to have the best chance.

If you're playing Super / Tri, #8 has a small chance at the third / fourth / fifth slots. We will look to LAY it.

Let's Lay 8, and use that projected win money for exotics-- and leave #8 "completely out" of all exotics... or only underneath two longshots. BTW that price will likely be $2.45

EDIT 1: We recommend you pull back the same amount as us: 215%, and bet the remaining 69%...44% for us. You can now bank TWO units profit, as well as the original starting unit...leaving a bet for this race of 40% Unit.

We have a goal of a minimum 125% daily profit. So, we will bank that & original unit....then bet the remaining 71% Unit.

EDIT 2: WOW.... almost everyone went for the lead-- setting a fast 21.8 first fraction-- #'s 2 & 6 were up with the expected 5 & 8...as well, #'s 3 & 4 were stalking right on the heels of those first four battlers. What the??? The jocks must've found Valenzuela's secret cocaine stash just before the race...

And as for #8-- looks like the blinkers allowed it to relax early...instead of the expected......

We actually got shut out of a bet here--- the last two minutes to post nothing was offered on #8.

 

 

We'll next take a peek at a couple of Penn National & Evangeline Downs races...

Edit: found nothing there... will get a head start on tomorrow.

2008 Del Mar Handicapping Challenge Thirty-sixth Day Monday August 25

Dodged a bullet here.

We selected #'s 4 & 10... gave a long look at 3 & 8. 9, the eventual place horse, was our least-liked longshot... part of uncoupled Gallagher entry.

The jock on #4 is what eventually broke the longshot quandary for us-- but his riding tactics leave us perplexed: we were expecting a closeup, rating ride, not a duel for the lead...the wrong tactic to employ on that surface and distance.

2008 Del Mar Handicapping Challenge Thirty-fifth Day Sunday August 24

The Pacific Classic is not normally conducive to longshots-- esp. this year's version... another $100 saved.

2008 Del Mar Handicapping Challenge Thirty-fourth Day Saturday August 23

Blecchhh...

2008 Del Mar Handicapping Challenge Thirty-third Day Friday August 22

#3 has a very good chance.... over cap odds to boot... go baby go!

2008 Del Mar Handicapping Challenge Thirty-second Day Thursday August 21

We had #2. Would've won if commited to threading horses.... but not with that drop back to last and loop the field 10-wide despite breaking from pp2 ride. To boot it blew the turn-- if at least it had leaned inwards and cut the corner it probably would've still won in spite of the trip... but noooo.... it had to give everyone else a real wide berth.
What it looked like was that mid-backstretch the jock thought about looking for some hole thru the pack, then just before the turn changed mind and very sharply / needlessly swung out(instead of just easing wide-- there was no one else to outside or behind to contend with) only it did this too close to the turn and that momentum took the horse back and sideways as the pack kept rounding the opposite way.

We needed a good jock here.

Even More Olympic Wagering Opportunities Late Thursday & Early Friday Aug. 21-22

Okie, dokie. We have 5 events, thus we need 5 betting units...hook them each / all with your base of Soccer ARG-NIG Over 2½ +115 thusly:

Parlay 1 (2-teamer) 1½ Units: Water Polo Men-- USA over Serbia +248

Parlay 2 (3-teamer) 1½ Units: Volleyball Men-- USA over Russia +134 AND Water Polo Men-- HUN over MNE -163

Parlay 3 (3-teamer) 2 Units:  Beach Volleyball-- US pair over Brazil pair -223 AND Water Polo Men-- HUN over MNE -163

 

Now, for those of you not allowed to parlay these...or just wishing better payoffs by manually parlaying-- here's the order of the events(DOUBLE-CHECK TO ENSURE WE OR THE NBC WEBSITE HAVEN'T ERRED OR THE SCHEDULES GET ALTERED):

First: Beach Volleyball followed by Volleyball USA-Russia...might get shut out if attempting to hook sequentially

Second: both Water Polo matches-- they're back to back, but like above pair, would also be dicey to handle them individually

Third: Soccer

So, you could do the following:

Of your 5 betting units, bet:

A. 1-1/3 on Beach Volleyball

B. 1 on the regular Volleyball

After those events are in, add together your payoffs to the  unused 2-2/3 units.

Bet 31% of everything  on HUNGARY Water Polo and...
19% on USA Water Polo

After that, add your payoffs to the unused 50%, pull back your betting units + enough to guarantee a profit for the Olympics(this is the third session we bet together these Olympics-- you have profit from the first and loss from the second) and bet the remaining on the Soccer final.
If that math does not work out, then we'll assess our options before the Soccer match. We'll either bet extra on it and/or the riskier Over 3½ goals.

 

Those of you who like Round Robins can do this:

Toss out the Beach Volleyball, and with 3 Units do Two-Team Round Robins using the regular Volleyball & the two Water Polo Matches. Afterwards, if say only two out three won-- thus cashing once only-- add your payoff to a fourth unit and ride all that on the Soccer. But if you cash all three, then follow above parlay step that guarantees profit.

 

UPDATE

Now that the first two events have won, it's time to protect our parlays. This MUST be done, irregardless of how UNLIKELY an opposing side's chances, in order to GUARANTEE profit no matter who wins the latter events.

Let's bet TWO units on MNE +175 in the first Water Polo match.

 

UPDATE 2

 

Okie dokie, we're killing them today Hannibal Lecter style. BTW The way the manner in which the Hungary match transpired early made us very glad for having reverse-hedged it. Here are suggestions for your next wagers depending on which of the three methods you're using:

 

1. Original fixed parlays-- You're waiting on a possible payoff of almost 33½ units. Subtracting the original 5 + 2 used to reverse hedge leaves just under 26½ net that must be protected-- we'll post some ideas on that shortly.

 

2. Manual sequence-- You should now have just over 14-3/4 units - original 5 = 9-3/4 net. Seems skimpy in comparison to the other methods, no?  It always will "when zero games lose". In a similar manner, folks who bet those smaller parlays make a lot less than with one giant parlay instead--they would be sitting on payoff of over 192½ units. But it's just unrealistic to expect such a near-perfect total day's outcome.
You need to be content in the knowledge that you always had money in pocket to continue betting "even if both concurrent(or almost) games lost each of the two times".

A riskier alternative could've been to assume that at worst one game would fall but you would cash the other one-- thus risking the entire cash in hand each time. BUT.... you'd have to be prepared to come up with:

A. another 5 units as many as two additional times in worst case scenario.

B. 2-3 units in case of 1-1 result of first series... if only the -223 game won. BTW replacing those partial units would be mandatory in order to avoid having subsequent wins w/ lower bet amounts. Otherwise, the next series also ends up 1-1 and you may not even have a chance to break even in the end.

The safe way you bet just gave you many additional options re guaranteed profits. At the end of the very first series you stood with almost 9 total units. You could do many things then: like pulling back original 5 units + say 1 of guaranteed profit... then gone for the jugular with the remaining 3 units on the remaining 3 games... 'with their money only'.

 

3. Round Robins-- You should now be sitting with over 17½  units, over 12½ net. Now here we could've included the soccer as well in our original advice, but we didn't want to overcomplicate things. You did 3 two-teamers-- you could've added the soccer to each and wound up with 3 three-teamers.

 

We'll post some ideas later on how to get additional, almost guaranteed profit from the soccer final for those on steps 2 & 3. And for those on step 1 some ways to not only guarantee profit but maybe even collect on both sides-- both the main bet and the hedge.

Stay tuned.

 

UPDATE 3

 

Some ideas for those in steps 2 & 3:

A. Risk only a little / bank most of your profit while still taking a shot at another nice payoff:

MLB Baseball Milwaukee(vs Pit) -265 parlayed to MLB Baseball TB-Chi UNDER 9½ -110 Parlayed to Soccer Over 4½ +615 parlayed to Basketball Women USA -370 parlayed to Basketball USA Men - whatever

Each unit bet should pay over 26 units.

B. Safely win an adequate amount of money with a larger bet:

Soccer Over 2½ +115 parlayed to Basketball Women USA -370 parlayed to Basketball USA Men - whatever

Each unit bet should pay just over 3 units.

 

Now for those in step 1:

A little bit of a dilemma-- ideal would be a way to have a decent chance of middling the hedge. The problem is that we foresee a high-scoring game and/or one side dominating the other. If someone offered an Even Goal Amount Prop, it would suit us to a tee: covering 0-0, 1-1, 2-0(only leaving 1-0 exposed) & just under half the possible high goal outcomes.

So, let's try for two things--

1. try to make the hedging amount elsewhere(thus a free bet). So let's FIRST do a two-team parlay w/ 1/3 of your planned hedge bet tonight: MLB Baseball Milwaukee(vs Pit) -265 parlayed to MLB Baseball TB-Chi UNDER 9½ -110

2. at least a slim chance of middling AND collecting big payoff in the process-- in return for having to hedge out such a large portion of the expected profit. Now take your payoff, add it to the unused 2/3 and

Hook Soccer UNDER 3½ -327 to: Basketball Women USA -370 parlayed to Basketball USA Men - whatever

Example: say you wish to use, from your expected 26½ NET Unit Win, @10½ units to hedge, leaving a potential NET of 16 won at the least(assuming soccer game goes over).
Use 3½ on the Baseball Parlay, which should return just under 8-3/4 Units + unused 7 = just over 15-2/3 in hand.
These you can parlay thusly: Soccer UNDER 4½ -930 parlayed to Basketball Women USA -370 parlayed to Basketball USA Men - whatever...
The payoff should be @25 Units, which has a chance to w/ middle the other potential payoff 33½ Units.
Your total initial + first & second hedge investments will be 5 + 2 + 10½ = 17½ Units....subtract this from whatever you collect for your NET, which should be either of these 3 amounts:

A. ONLY main bet hits: 16 Units

B. ONLY hedge hits: 7-8 Units

C. MIDDLE: 41 Units

3. Now, what if the baseball parlay loses, you ask? Well, you had 7 unused units--
Parlay them either of these two ways:

A. Soccer UNDER 3½ -131 parlayed to Basketball Women USA -370 parlayed to Basketball USA Men - whatever... Payoff will be 17½ Units...Perfect Breakeven IF you DON"T middle main bet. Profit of 17½ if you do.

B. Soccer UNDER 2 +105 parlayed to Basketball Women USA -370 parlayed to Basketball USA Men - whatever... Payoff will be @20½ units, for a NET of 3. IFF you push first leg here, payoff is 10 units, for total loss of @7 Units(the original + first hedge amount).

However, keep in mind these results are after losing main bet, having had multiple opps to cash big... can't always expect to cash large in spite of a loss can you? Well, we would still have one last ace in the hole(assuming a disaster push in that last example: a baseball play(s) for that night, to bring us into the black anyway!).

 

What's that, Virginia? What if US women & men lose? Are you kidding me? So what if they do? They can only hurt us IF our main bet loses. Another way to look at it-- US odds are prohibitively low, so for the Hedge part, they allow us to collect fairly substantially over their odds by winning. If they lose, we were going to lose something anyway....in effect getting a return from them much better than when betting them exclusively / singly.

 

UPDATE 4

Let's do 5 Units Halftime Nigeria ML +450 parlayed to Basketball Women USA -370

 

UPDATE 5

We'll find something to hook the last reverse to, after Basketball, to get into the black. Look for that in a new thread. As well we're planning to drop the bankroll on USA Women's Basketball final. Stay tuned.