Simulcast Picks of the Day Saturday September 20, 2008

PHA PHILADELPHIA PARK RACE 5

#5-- Should go wire to wire. It will be tough extracting value from exactas though-- it's hard to separate the other experienced runners 2, 3, 8...and they won't offer much odds value. If you have to play exactas, set the combo with the likely favorite, 8, as a hedge(breakeven)...and as well add the debuter #7 PLUS any other debuter whose odds are longer than #7.

A better option might be DD(w/ 4th race) or Pik3... although we won't be handicapping those other relevant races.

 

EDIT: We weren't around during racing, but the odds gods hopefully shone on you... esp. if you followed betting advice of next race-- which should be de rigeur ALWAYS... favor larger odds and eliminate or downgrade or use only as saver underlayed odds.
These are the odds of the entrants we mentioned: 11, 8, 6, 3, 8/5
The candidates turned out to not be as underlayed as we figured.

So, however you bet this race, you should've made money: exacta paid $155, TRI paid $1,210

 

BEL BELMONT PARK RACE 9 "GRADE II GALLANT BLOOM HANDICAP"

Severely underlayed & vulnerable bridgejumper-type favorite here:

Indian Blessing-- three reasons:

1. Figs have not improved this year(going by our numbers), while those of all its foes are currently ascending. This is a classic example of a precocious horse that early on beats up on foes that take longer to mature... to boot vs small & perhaps mediocre fields, usually while having its way on early uncontested leads. This type usually gets its comeuppance the second half of the year, when meeting foes that are catching up & passing in terms of growth... and its own growth(vertical) has topped out.

2. Race shape tilts toward chaos-- most of these can set the pace or rate...so maybe nobody wants the lead, someone steals it, most burn each other out in a duel...who knows....

3. There is very little incentive both race purse and future breeding value wise in a Grade II race for a multiple Grade I(& Breeders Cup) winner... having already achieved that status @ both routes and sprints.

Who to bet then? Just invert the Morning Line:

Porte Bonheur-- should offer outstanding value @ 12-1... with ascending numbers in spite of trip problems. Want another reason, hidden at that? Our figs rate her tops in here.

Zada Belle-- mini-me version of above @ 6-1

Elope / Sugar Swirl-- one of these could steal a lone lead...former holds much better value @ 8-1(as well is so lightly-raced that it could be anything / has the most upside potential)... latter is underlayed second ML fave.

In conclusion, we rate them in this order:

Porte Bonheur & Elope equally.

then

Zada Belle

then the two underlayed faves.

 

EDIT:  4 horse field and two encounter trip problems...

One scratch...one contender became underlayed...blah race to bet. Although if you did, the previous race should've put you firmly in the black for the day.