Simulcast Picks of the Day Tuesday September 2, 2008

 

PHA PHILADELPHIA PARK RACE 9

The winner will be one of the following three:

#5 The most likely... & to boot not undervalued. Possesses Early Pace(2½ lengths), Turn Time(2 lengths), Closing Fraction(1½ lengths) & Final Time(7 lengths) superior to all here.

#2 Could be anything / won with plenty of reserves left... but will get an acid test vs #5 here. Still, a bet should carry value-- judging by 6-1 Morning Line.

#1 Another one that should move forward from impressive debut, overcoming traffic problems to post decent time, nonwithstanding claming class rank. Although it is the most likely to pick up the pieces should the early pace collapse, it may yet again encounter traffic problems while stuck down on the fence... and will likely by underlayed...as ML fave.

The rest are really up against it here:

#6 Second career race, first time lasix & the troubled debut-- broke sluggishly, then rushed to set the pace while wide-- signal a possible impending fig improvement...or maybe not: could be strung out 4-wide in a 5-horse pace duel while will not getting a clear lead, & to boot having to run a longer distance of ground. And don't expect a great odds premium, as Morning Line fourth fave. At best you could do a reverse Exacta Saver on top of main contenders, but even then, only if the prices are large enough.

#4 Yes, it's a closer in a race chock full of early speed...and it sports improving pace and final numbers...but all that still leaves it 15 lengths behind the projected final time here. And will offer poor value as the ML third fave.

#3 Won despite a not so smooth start, but that bottom maiden claiming rank is very telling: Early Pace was some 10 lengths slower than what it could face here... Final Time almost 20 lengths slower than the projected final time here.

#7 Even worse than above...can't even win yet at bottom maiden claiming level.

 

Depending on how the earlier races run, scratches, etc. we will decide on either # 6 or 4 for a LAY bet... as well as any possible exotics bets.

 

EDIT: no one unduly favored... exacta box of win contenders returns almost a $5- equivalent payoff on total investment.