SAR SARATOGA RACE 10 GRADE 1 HOPEFUL STAKES
WIN CANDIDATES
#8 CRIBNOTE----------------- Race shapes up for him to mow them all down late; may be the best two year old this year. And at larger odds than main foe, just might be the best bet of the season.
#4 MUNNINGS---------------- Talented speedster eligible to take them all the way.
SAVERS / LOWER SPOTS
#6 MEDAGLIA D'ONORE---- Offers fantastic value, bbuuttttt...MUST fulfill the following three:
clean start, clean trip, continue fig improvement.
#1 BREAK WATER EDISON-- Small though unlikely chance at the win IFFF several things fall into place:
it continues improvement of both pace and final figs, it's able to stalk pace closest of all from the rail, speedsters tire each other out, and #8 encounters trip trouble.
It won't offer much value though, as third ML fave.
BOTTOM SLOTS EXOTICS
#3 COGNITO------------------ MUST rate / not get involved in pace duel to have a chance...as well as get a trouble-free ride.
#2 DESERT PARTY----------- MUST continue improvement to have a chance at the bottom slot of Tri / Super. Won't offer much value either, as fourth ML fave.
#5 VINEYARD HAVEN------- Not a whale lot to recommend, but could surprise a bit back on dry footing-- and don't often get the chance at double digit odds with Trainer Frankel.
LAY(lose / tossout) CANDIDATES
#7 NOTONTHESAMEPAGE-- You can safely eliminate this underlayed horse from Win consideration. It won't get a clear open lead here, has to race an extra furlong, and its other pace competitor, #4, has faster Pace & Final numbers despite hitting the gate in its debut; as well factor in its foe's expected improvement in second career race.
#7 will be more cut out for routes with easier early paces next year.
Its only chance to even pick up a minor award here is if it can rate just off #7 @ a slower early pace-- it's removing blinkers in preparation for that...it will also need #7 to 'cooperate' w/ either a bad break or by not sending too fast early in this long sprint.
THE WAY TO BET THIS RACE FOR A POSSIBLY LARGE PAYOFF
1. Go to a Betting Exchange / Trade and LAY #7-- should pay somewhere between $2.25 - 2.45. Use that projected payoff to:
2. Play Supers, but structure tickets to avoid more than two single-digit entrants in any one combo. Possible examples:
Firstly, bet 1K Lay 7...this will give you a coupla hundred. Secondly, with our main choice, let's make an exception & cover most possible combos underneath it, irregardless of odds.
8 with
4/6/1 with
3/5///4/6/1 with
2///3/5///4/6/1
48 combos @ triple per combo than the bottom 2 tickets
4 with
8 with
1/2/3/5/6 with
1/2/3/5/6
20 combos @ double per combo than the bottom 2
1 with
8 with
3/4/5/6 with
2///3/4/5/6
16 combos
6 with
8 with
1/2/3/4/5 with
1/2/3/4/5///7
25 combos
Field size makes this bet kinda low in value-- if any longshot gets scratched, then a better bet might be:
3. Doubles / Pick Whatevers using 8 & 4...6 as small Bud Longshot or Saver.
THE WAY TO BET THIS RACE FOR A SURE PAYOFF
Check back near post time-- there are several options, depending on odds & pool sizes:
1. LAY 7 No decent price offered. We almost posted a substitute choice for LAY: #1... but that post position is awfully dangerous to LAY.
2. 8 to Show or Place...maybe even a dutch one of those pools and Win. This is what made the most sense: 2 Units Show & 1 Unit Win @ Exchange slightly over 9/2 odds. Horse didn't win, but you still got an equivalent payoff on your total investment of almost $2.47.
3. Win Dutch 4 & 8...that's best done at an Exchange-- where there's enough odds to also cover savers on 6 & 1. Not enough profit to cover everything.
4. 8 win Dutched to Reverse Exacta 4/8. Quiniella would be ideal...but stupid NYRA offers that only on some races. Woulda lost...and didn't compare safety-wise with option 2.
EDIT: So Frankel jumps all the way up beyond our 3rd & 4th place slots. To add insult to injury, @ a paltry 9-1. Tell us that the vet wasn't juicing today and that the inner circle wasn't tipped off. What a crock. As for our heroes, another couple of crocks:
#5 was making a winning move, but blew the turn to wind up in the parking lot...still recomposed itself to re-pass all others again-- except for the winner.
#4 repeated gate problem...was unhurried early, then gradually closed while very wide to finish third.
And, #'s 1/2/3 played bumper cars at the start...par for the course at this racing age.
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LAD LOUISIANA DOWNS RACE 8
#3-- Lays over this field.
#4-- Second Best.
#'s 6, 5, 1-- Fight it out for lesser spoils.
#7-- Would have to improve immensely to contend here...on the other hand, should offer a good price.
#'s 2 & 8-- can not only be tossed out, but are as well severely underlayed.
#8 scratched...pace scenario a bit cloudy-- #2 has very inferior pace fig, but is only confirmed pacesetter. #3 @ 1/5. PASSSSSSS
EDIT: wasn't expecting to see #'s 3 & 4 duel for the early lead.
And actually, there was money to be made with this triple-- esp. since 5/6/1 were longshots-- coulda done something like this:
main ticket-- 3 with 4 with 6/5/1, then reverse for a lesser amount the place and show positions.
saver ticket-- 4 with 3 with 6/5/1. Only 9 combos total.
DMR DEL MAR RACE 5 I'M SMOKIN 100k STAKES
Wide open race...a lot will depend on riding tactics and who gets a good trip.
WIN CONTENDERS
#7--- eligible to take it all...decent price too. Lordgivemealift could turn out to be a nice horse...could also get cooked in a pace duel here.
#9--- very dangerous at a price. Negatives: needs a fast pace of race to do the most damage, & may not get it here.
#2--- ditto above, except as an underlayed ML favorite.
LOWER SLOTS & WIN SAVERS
These are a notch below above, but since none of those are cinch, then the value odds among these, if any, can be bet in the top slot:
#8--- a revert to closing style makes it dangerous, to say nothing of top jock Bejarano jumping aboard. Won't offer exceptional value though.
#11-- won debut despite traffic problems, expect a much improved fig for its second career race.
#1--- can get a piece stalking from the rail. Today's Pace of Race may be too quick to its liking though...and won't offer much value.
BOTTOM SLOTS EXOTICS
#3--- won wide-trip debut. May get a nice(or horrible) trip today from that inside post. Expect an improved fig in second career race, and at a better price than:
#10-- won wide-trip debut, but the trip today may wind up even wider. Nevertheless, expect an improved fig today.
EDIT: Charge of the Light Brigade finish--two underlays had to take first two spots: 2/1/10/11
DMR DEL MAR RACE 9 GRADE 1 DEBUTANTE STAKES
There doesn't seem to be a dominant & able pacesetter here. As such, the race can be stolen by someone alert, or can descend into chaos.
TOP 5 CONTENDERS:
11/8/5/7/3
EXOTICS LOWER SLOTS
10/2/6/4
longshots in red
Okie dokie-- Exactas:
Box 11/8/5/7 for 4 times as much per combo as the LAST sequence.
Key Wheel 11/8/5/7 OVER 10/6/4 for 2 times as much per combo(half of above sequence)
Reverse Key Wheel 10/6/4 OVER 11/8/5/7 for half again as much(quarter of first sequence) plus one time 5 over 2.
37 total combos.
Hold off on above exactas for a bit....
EDIT: We left and got back too late. Good thing, as two of our main contenders, 7 & 8, went up to contest/press early lead. We need to hold a seminar for jockeys out there: 7 furlongs on synthetic, you hold back and move late...especially if your horse is not a pacesetter by nature. Crappy, crappy meet with artificially high purses & subpar racing.
EVD EVANGELINE DOWNS RACE 9 LAFAYETTE 100k STAKES
#'s 4 & 3 tower over this field-- two horse-race.
The rest, in order of preference: #'s 7, 8, 2
Racing canceled.
MTH MONMOUTH PARK RACE 9
Look for a pace meltdown here. Toss out #'s 1/5/2. Exacta Box #'s 3/6/4
2 Scratched... now things get dicey early-pace wise: 6 will likely elect to stalk/press, but 1 & 5 are inconsistent pacesetters. We don't wanna chance a lone frontrunner beating us. Anyhow, there's no value here with our main contenders-- 3 & 6...nor with anyone else for that matter. We're tempted to LAY 1...very undervalued...but: PASS
EDIT 2: actually, let's hook #3 back and forth in exactas with ALL...put a bit more on combos with #6, less with #1.
EDIT 3: and those of you who followed our original advice quadrupled your exacta investment... had the triple too.
They made the garbage #1 favored...but those odds weren't reflected in Exchanges-- a very underwhelming $2.90 LAY price offered(should be more like $3.40-3.80)
RP REMINGTON PARK RACE 7
#3 Looks strong here-- hook it in exactas with 4 & 1. 7/2 all way down to 3/5... no value-- PASS.
#2 Is a tossout and LAY candidate.
EDIT: #'s 4 & 1 unexpectedly cooked each other in an early duel.
RP REMINGTON PARK RACE 9 CLEVER TREVOR 50k STAKES
#3 Looks very strong here.
#2 ML fave looks very underlayed.
#1 We like it better than #2, and carries a lot more value.
#5 Has a chance if pace melts down.
#'s 4 & 6-- Projected Pace of Race looks to hot for them-- they'll likely bring up the rear.
SUGGESTED EXACTA TICKETS:
#'s 3 & 5 hooked back and forth with each other and over 1 & 2.
EDIT: Exacta 5/3(4-1 & Even Money) pays whopping $34
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