2009 NEW YEAR’S DAY COLLEGE FOOTBALL BOWL GAMES

HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!

 

We’re taking the easy rout out today—a lot of these bowl games turn out to be mismatches—it’s just hard at times to settle on who / the reason why:

from outright class superiority to jittery staff(read choke in big games) to the prolonged time off from season finale affecting timing, team cohesion, even knocking out key players(physical or moral / legal reasons) to even the case of styles make fights(to borrow a boxing lexicon..irregardless of who is the actual superior contender).

Today’s outcomes depend on which team imposes itself on the other one—in most cases our perceived better contenders are either not a scoring juggernaut and/or are known for totally shutting out foes at times at least, or at least will need to score plenty of points to win… while the perceived lesser foes do tend to score a lot(or will need to in order to have a chance)—when they’re able to contend for the win that is.
SO….. we find ourselves in a situation of having a pick in each of today’s 5 bowl games, which can be protected  by taking the OVER… when our choice wins, it may still totally overwhelm and/or grind out an Over cover. IF our choice loses, it will most likely be due to not having been able to contain the opposing offense. Additionally, turnovers will likely play a big part in most of these games…and weather should not interfere…giving a potential helping  hand to the Overs.

 

11AM

OUTBACK BOWL--

Iowa—buy points or take an alternate line so as to lay less than a field goal.
Protection: South Carolina Money Line 3/2--9/5 and/or Over 42

1PM

GATOR BOWL--

Nebraska
Combo Protection & Possible Additional Profit: Over 56

 

CAP1 BOWL--

Georgia--buy points or take an alternate line so as to lay less than a touchdown.
Combo Protection & Possible Additional Profit: Over 56

 

BET STRUCTURE--

Okie dokie: let’s take 8 UNITS and do ½ unit 2-Team Round Robins, 16 in total. Let’s use Iowa(laying under 3 points), South Carolina ML & the Over 42 each hooked to Nebraska plus points, its Over 56, Georgia(laying under a td) & its Over 56…12 total bets; then criss-cross Nebraska, Georgia, and the two Overs.

 

We’ll post tonight’s other games and bets later…. tune in during the halftimes for additional bets / hedges / reverses / etc.

FULL WAGERING MENU FOR THANKSGIVING DAY 2008

RECAP: THE DENVER UNDER, DENVER SIDE, AND MIDDLE OF OVER TEASES LOOKED ALMOST GOLDEN FOR QUITE A WHILE.

THOSE OF YOU THAT HOOKED 2ND HALF TO OHIO ST. TOMORROW—YOU’VE WON THE OVER AND PUSHED WITH DENVER. EDIT: OHIO (MAC) hopefully you caught this glitch…only OHIO playing….

EDIT7: YOU SHOULD STAY PUT….YOU HAVE BOTH SIDES COVERED, WITH A CHANCE TO MIDDLE. HOWEVER, THERE’S A CHANCE TO MAKE FURTHER MONEY--

2 TEASERS:

COLL.FOOT. OHIO ST. TOMORROW w/.

DEN/NO nba SECOND HALF OVER 98

DEN –2 SECOND HALF

EDIT6: Good things come to those who wait….games looking better. The only thing dicey is the NBA under—looks like a track meet so far. We just were able to semi-cover that by taking DEN side. We may be able to see something at halftime for you…we’ll cross that bridge when we get to it.

EDIT5: EXPLANATION OF THESE SECOND HALF BETS

We’re not trying to protect the various parlays—whether yesterday’s continuations into today, or today’s new ones-- for a couple of reasons:

A. yesterday’s are themselves a reverse protection of main plays…at some point you run out of possible profit, barring middling most hedges.

B. today’s parlays were already structured / split with protection in mind—both football sides are semi-protected by OVERS.

We did see some extra profit  potential in today’s second halves(irregardless & separate of whether it looks like our original plays are losing--more on that in a second)—so we are attempting to use those to protect today’s NBA nightcap AND hopefully middle both the original bet and this Teaser Criss-Cross Reverse Hedge. Coincidentally, one of those reverses does protect one of the main games—the Texas side…so extra gravy for us.

As far as our bets not looking so hot early on:

A. NFL Ariz likely won’t come back to make a game….but the Over protection should hit.

B. Coll. Foot—we did manage to cover the reverse of Texas…albeit w/ the reverse of the nightcap.  There’s only so much you can do—sometimes you’re gonna take a loss. Although there’s still a good chance Texas will keep gradually wearing down A&M, and the latter will press & commit mistakes / give up turnover points.

All in all, we’re not sitting too bad…esp. if we can middle some things.

EDIT4: 1½ UNIT TEASER: NFL SECOND HALF currently at 23½ w/  NBA OVER of Den/NO 

EDIT3: TWO 1½ UNIT TEASERS: OVER of Den/NO  w/:

SECOND HALF….TEXAS A&M currently at +17 / OVER of SAME GAME currently at 30

EDIT2: THOSE OF YOU WITH TWO OPEN SERIES, DO THIS:

1½ UNITS EACH…Key UNDER of Den/NO in two-team parlays with:

College Texas / Coll. Foot.OVER of Texas / AM

EDIT: ADDING SPORTS

Those of you with open series from last night hooked with Arizona NFL do the following:

2 units Teaser: Ariz OVER w/ Coll. Foot.OVER of Texas / AM

1 Unit Parlay: Texas w/ NBA UNDER of Den/NO

All others:

Key UNDER of Den/NO in two-team parlays with:

Ariz NFL / Ariz OVER / College Texas / Coll. Foot.OVER of Texas / AM

Ensure you peek in during halves—we will look to protect games, esp. the NBA. FYI the overs above semi-protect / hedge the individual sides.

 

Wake up early—we start the day off @ 11am w/ Calder’s first race. We’ll have horses & sports for you.

CRC Calder Race Course

RACE 1

WIN CONTENDERS

5[6-1]---- May have a lone lead…

7[8-5]---- If healthy, fit, and ready would decimate this field…as its ML odds suggest.

2[4-1]---- Best closer—chance for top prize if frontrunner tires and 7 is not ready or suffers a trip mishap.

The rest are overmatched.

BTW #1 is best of the rest, but is a career maiden…and even though it will be advantageously placed inside, we recommend LAYING it(betting it to LOSE at an exchange).

EDIT: The way the post time odds go—7 is 1/5, 2 & 5 are 5 & 8 to 1 respectively….the play becomes a Dutch of: 2 & 5 WIN & EXACTAS:  7 OVER 2 & 5 & 1

 

RACE 5

WIN CONTENDERS

2[3-1]----Has improving numbers & the fastest closing time… projects to sit just off the lead.

3[6-1]----Small chance of winding up alone on an early lead… a danger at this short distance. Now, that is not very likely—but couple that with a decent price—& it becomes a must play.

7[5-1]----With continued improvement AND a clean break, ditto # 3. We actually prefer it over 3…but price rules(projected).

Just to clear up: the distance of this race, coupled with the young age of these horses, makes this a tough race to key on any one.
It’s very likely that 3 & 7 would duel each other into exhaustion, thus setting things up for 2.
And it’s actually even a bit more likely that 7 will win the early lead. 
But….. if watch head on shots of the start of races consistently, you’ll notice how this type of horse is not very good at at clean / straight break—it often is a wonder how many of these don’t fall down / are left behind at the break. As well, there are no others in here fast enough to keep up early w/ either of these…couple that with the short distance of this race… the small price of our leading contender(2nd ML fave)…and it’s tough to bet that the break will be uneventful for all.

LAY(bet to lose) CONTENDERS

IF you have access to an exchange, these are the candidates:

1- Cheap speed. Even when able to make lone lead, it falters late…at shorter distances to boot. This horse is only suited to bullring ovals where 4½ F distances are regularly carded. The coup de grace here is that its fastest early speed still places it some 10 lengths back of the quickest ones here.

4- Slow early and slow late…. should finish among the back of the pack.

6- Looks like a declining horse based on figs--- kinda confirmed by the rather quick & repeated willingness of its connections to  lower the asking price. NOW, we could be wrong…maybe it just bounced off the wet track effort…BUT as the ‘clear projected favorite’ makes no sense to back w/ our money. This horse only makes it into the win contender group with multiple scratches in the main contender group.

EDIT: KINDA LIKE WE SCRIPTED IT, NO? 

 

AQU AQUEDUCT

RACE 2

WIN CONTENDERS

Looks like only one possiblity==

2[3-1]— projects to have the lead all to itself.
2B[3-1]-entrymate has the fastest closing time.

BTW re ML favorite 6—looks like a career maiden…we will put it in LAY group.

LAY(bet to lose) CONTENDERS

everyone else looks overmatched… we will look to lay 8[safer] before 6(ml fave).

EDIT: THIS ONE THE OPPOSITE OF PREVIOUS…. TRANSPIRED BASS ACKWARDS OF HOW WE PREDICTED.

ALL IN ALL, THE PONIES THREW A NET PROFIT FOR THE DAY FOR BOTH YOU AND US—WHETHER PARIMUTUELLLY OR EXCHANGE-WISE.

WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 26

PEN PENN NATIONAL RACE 5

Real quick..no time to post analysis… #7 is a false favorite…we will lay it…and the proceeds will go on NBA later..stay tuned….

EDIT: this Morning Line second fave drifted from 9/5 fave all the way to closing 8-1.

NBA

DENVER NUGGETS –4 TO -4½

The winnings will kick off tomorrow, Thanksgiving….we have plenty of plays on tap….

we may be around at halftime here for second half betting…

EDIT:

HEDGE-- 3 TEAM TEASER

[½ your DENV bet) LA CLIPS 2nd HALF +2½ WITH:

TENN OVER 44(NFL) WITH:

ARIZ +3

so, depending on your books’ teaser types and rules, you should be getting +5 to 7 points with clips, over 36 to 38, and ariz + 9-11 points… There is a slight chance to middle / win both the regular nba bet and its second half hedge BTW.

EDIT 2:

IIFFF you’re offered 4th quarter betting, pull out another ½ bet--

tease clips WITH arizona over 46 WITH  tennesee -11

 

Monday November 24 Sports Picks

EDIT2: PRACTICALLY IN A NO-LOSE SITUATION TONIGHT: CHAR PULLING AAAWAY LATE…LED MOST OF THE GAME….MEM WE  HAVE BOTH SIDES COVERED W/ A MIDDLE POSSIBILITY…NFL LOOKS LIKE WILL FULLFILL OUR THINKING: HIGH-SCORING GAME WITH ONE SIDE PULLING AWAY LATE—3 TD’S IN FIRST QUARTER, WITH ANOTHER SCORE ON THE WAY.

EDIT: ADDING FOOTBALL + CHANGING MEMPHIS BETS:  ½ unit 2-team parlays: MEM + points with:

GREEN BAY –3½ +170 to +180

GB-NO OVER 57 to 58 +180 to +190

NO –2 +112

 

We’re a little late for the first leg..7pm. Our choices are:

7pm Char +4½ to +6

8pm Mem + 3 to +4½

10½pm Clips +5½ to +7

The original plan was to round robin them. Plan B now is to find alternate lines / + odds, to avoid going 2-1(including missed first game) and still winding up in the minus column for the night.

Let’s do 1 UNIT on MEM Money Line +135 to +150.

IF we win, we’ll pull back original unit + ½ the net, and ride the rest on: LA Clips + points.

IF we lose first bet, then: second UNIT on LA Clips Money Line +180 to +240

Odds range will vary depending on book…BTW

We will be present for any hedging opportunities re second half / later quarter lines…..

EDIT: THOSE OF YOU ON CHAR CAN NOW TAKE 2ND HALF PHI –2½..YOU’LL HAVE A CHANCE AT A MIDDLE WHILE PROTECTING YOUR INITIAL BET….WE WILL MANUALLY HOOK PROCEEDS LATER TONITE INTO SOMETHING ELSE…LIKELY TO PROTECT LATER GAMES AS WELL…
IDEALLY, IF THE BOOK ALLOWS, WOULD BE TO TEASE PHI 2ND HALF W/ LA CLIPS LATER ON BTW.

SAME APPLIES TO MEM GAME ABOUT TO HIT HALFTIME, NOW REVERSE & TAKE SA 2ND HALF(PK TO –1). TEASE THAT W/ LA CLIPS.

LET’S COVER THE MIDDLE SCORE WE LEFT OPEN IN MNF…GB IS BEING OFFERED –½ +120…. LET’S TEASE THAT W/: LA CLIPS + POINTS(RIGHT NOW @ +7)

THE TOTAL WE’LL LEAVE UNPROTECTED—IT’S LESS THAN TWO TD’S AWAY FROM CLICKING.

NOW COME TAKE SOME OF THE NET FOR TONITE(CALCULATE WHAT YOU HAVE IN HAND FROM CHAR GAME + THE PAYOFFS OF EVERYTHING RIDING ON LA CLIPS TEASERS) AND BET SOME ON NO -6½….OR BETTER YET iffff YOUR BOOK ALLOWS: AN OPEN-ENDED TEASER OF NO & THE OTHER SIDE TO BE DECIDED TOMORROW.

MAKE IT SO THAT YOU PROFIT 2 PARTS IF CLIPS WIN, 1 PART IF NO WINS…..AND OF COURSE, YOU HAVE A GREAT CHANCE TO MIDDLE EVERYTHING.

WE MISSED CHAR GAME, SO WE WILL PROCEED A BIT DIFFERENTLY.

EPILOGUE

LET’S DO IT AHEAD OF TIME—MNF JUST WENT OVER IN THE THIRD QUARTER…AND WE HAVE OURSELVES GUARANTEED PROFIT NO MATTER WHO WINS BOTH FOOTBALL AND BASKETBALL GAMES.

THINK ABOUT IT:

WE’VE MADE MONEY IN SPITE OF MISSING FIRST GAME WINNER TODAY, LOSING THE NEXT BB GAME…THE FOOTBALL GAME WASN’T EVEN A ONE SIDED BET, BUT MORE OF A LEAN, AS WE BET BOTH SIDES(TOWARDS NO btw), AND WE CAN LOSE THE NIGHTCAP BB GAME AND STILL MAKE MONEY!!! WHAT A COUNTRY….A LICENSE TO PRINT MONEY!!!

THE ONLY REGRET TODAY, APART FROM MISSING FIRST GAME, IS NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND AN ALTERNATE MNF LINE WITH NO GIVING MORE POINTS.

SEE YOU NEXT TIME, TX FOR TUNING IN.

PS ONE MORE:

2ndHalf NO HORNETS -3½-110 over 93-110

LET’S DO EITHER OF TWO THINGS:

1. PROTECT(& POSSIBLY MIDDLE) SOME OF THE LARGER PROFIT RIDING ON LA CLIPS BY: TEASING NO(OPEN-ENDED)…

2. WIN MORE PROFIT WITH AN OPEN-ENDED PARLAY OF OVER 93…

Monday November 24 Simulcast Musings

EDIT: KEEP CHECKING, AS WE ADD LATER RACES TOWARDS THE BOTTOM… AS WELL WE’LL HAVE SOME SPORTS ACTION IN AN IMMINENT SUBSEQUENT THREAD

 

Some races we’ve come across in our handicapping:

PHA PHILADELPHIA PARK

RACE 4--

This is a subpar group of horses at a demanding distance to boot—ergo no lock / surprise possible / demand odds value. We ourselves will pass the race—cannot eliminate for certain any of the top three contenders. If you insist on betting this race, we would recommend only Exactas or serial Pik bets.

 

5[4-1]—is doing well form cycle-wise, but may just end up repeating last race—clear on the lead but fading late. It’s dangerous to blithely dismiss a horse alone on the lead early though…but depending on posttime odds(low), the only way to play this horse may be hooked in exotics with others.

 

7[8-1]—the rider change to Cotto signals a well-meant try, and more importantly—a  likely attempt at the front early. It may be able to duel #5 to exhaustion, or lay in close attendance to try and inherit the lead upon #5’s expected late fade. It’s not a likely win candidate, but more of a lower in the money slot…but is still dangerous for the top spot as the one laying in closest attendance to the projected pacesetter.

4[8-5]—AND..

8[5-2]—are both obvious win contenders—both evenly matched…all depends on which one gets the better trip. Expect very poor odds from both though.

1[10-1]-if the layoff helped, it can take it all with its top career number.

 

3[20-1]-contender for lower slot only…needs a fast pace up front, and doesn’t look like that will occur today. Odds will not hurt though….

 

The rest look outmatched:

6[15-1]-just looking at its naked pp’s, w/o adjusted figs—makes this entrant intriguing. However, even on the races where it raced forwardly early, the pace was abysmally slow. This horse projects 20-30 lengths back early

2[30-1]- please….

EDIT: winner 5 shortened stride(and bore out) late, but today, NO ONE ELSE was doing any significant running…even the second place finisher 4, who was dead last early, NEVER threatened(btw offered atrocious value, along with 8). Hopefully you audibled based on the odds—the winner, as third ML fave, projected to pay $7-9…and instead was let go at 6½-1.
7 was softened up enough early to allow 6 to sneak into third…the only surprise.

CRC CALDER RACE COURSE

RACE 6--

Don’t get married to the obvious contenders here—NONE of these have run to par—some longshots have an outstanding chance here:

8[10-1]---actually has top number—extracted internal sprint figure from route…IF it can get a good trip from that outside post AND not lag far back early, it has a great chance at a price.

12[10-1]--second best number….same potential negatives as 8.

9[12-1]—-another live horse at a price—with expected improvement second off the layoff AND a trouble-free trip…

3[20-1]—-this is a type of horse that when it clicks will offer a monster mutuel: has endured racing trouble often AND is usually not perservered w/ late—a trouble-free trip combined w/ finding itself within striking range…

 

10[6-1]—-third best number…MUST get a trouble-free trip.

2[4-1]----needs to top career best fig to compete here…odds will offer poor value…hook it with price contenders if you must play it.

 

4[6-1]----we would LOVE to see this horse SENT EARLY…has the ability to clear everyone early….

7[20-1]---hasn’t shown anything, BUT—that has been in two races only…gets a positive jock switch..worth including in exotics at a juicy price.

 

5 & 6---- don’t have anything to recommend them….at least the former has better value @ 15-1 vs 6-1 Morning Line…

11[3-1]---mediocre fig, bad post and POOR value…ELIMINATE it from consideration…We will LAY this pig at an exchange.

EDIT:

Finishing order: 12-9-2-10-6-1… #’s 8,7,6,5 had poor starts.

$2 Trifecta
12-9-2
$3782.80

Enuff said.

 

RACE 9--

The problem with backing someone to win here strongly is that the early pace looks uncertain / chaotic…at this short distance, anyone lucky enough to find itself on the front will likely stay there all the way.

1[3-1]----Our top choice…could decimate this field. Only two negatives abound—the unsettled early pace dilemma, and haveing entrymate guarantees low odds…

11[12-1]--improving horse at a very nice price…must NOT be left out of your exotics.

10[30-1]-VERY, VERY dangerous horse to discard at monster odds!!! Its 2 career races, although dismal-looking, could’ve been only public workouts. This horse has the second-fastest finishing time…any kind of a decent start + early push may put it within striking range—notice how last start it broke well BUT was taken back…

9[6-1]----capable of taking them wire to wire ‘on its best day’…and that’s just the issue: we can’t tell for sure if its form cycle is on the way down OR it just needs a lone / unpressured lead…

6[10-1]---we think its form cycle may be on the way down…on the other hand will offer decent value…

4[15-1]---can get a LOWER slot at a price…

7[8-1]----horse with some gate issues getting a positive switch to an alert gate jock… scratched

5[5-2]----chance at a piece of the purse….poor value as ML fave…may be an absolute tossout depending on (low)posttime odds

2-Entry- not much to recommend it, BUT it’s not bad to get two horses for 1 at a monster price…there are much worse bets in horseracing…

EDIT: 1 proved us correct…5 hung on better than we thought…4 garnered third despite poor start…6 & 9(esp. the latter) confirmed their poor form…10 broke poorly and always trailed…11 faded while strung out wide…2 entry did nothing as expected….

 

 

MNR MOUNTAQUEER…err… MOUNTAINEER

RACE 2--

1[6-5]----is legitimate. The ONLY possible fly in the ointment is that its early pace figure is a bit subpar(much superior to its experienced foes here though)—so that a first timer(three here today) with average talent could feasibly outgun it for the lead. That, however, doesn’t seem likely—as for the most part the debuters have route pedigrees..and to boot are handled by mediocre connections.
Its main pacesetting competitor:

9[8-1]----has substantially inferior internal and final numbers. Although…its final number is second best…better than second ML fave:

6[7-2]----why this horse is so highly-rated beats us…it’s a tossout in our book—esp. w/ that poor projected value.

So, the question becomes: can 9 not get too burned up by dueling 1…and give us a cold exacta? Otherwise it becomes The Charge of the Light Brigade for Place Money….an exacta wheel should then consist of all others except for any with poor value: 6 and maybe 5….though you never can predict the odds for sure until post time.

You could also do a Tri Key leaving 6 out completely(assuming it becomes second choice…if not, use it) AND 9 ONLY in the third slot(assuming it becomes third fave…otherwise include in place slot). Your ticket would look like so:

1
with
2/3/4/5/7/9/10
with
2/3/4/5/7/8/9/10
49 combos.

We lean towards the exacta….can’t see the tri paying so much with a bridgejumper fave on top…but you never know…maybe it’ll vie for favoritism with 6…

NOTHING TO BET HERE.. 1 @ 1/5 - 2/5 THE WHOLE WAY…..

 

RACE 8--

Not much here…race looks to be a pace duel between 5 & 7…. the former edged out the latter two back…but the tables(press on outside flank) should be turned here. They will both not offer any odds value.

The only other thing of note is that 1 is overrated…we will see if we can LAY it at our horse exchange.

BTW Minimum $2.20 payoffs may make a bridgejumper bet on 7 worthwhile…stay tuned.

HAWTHORNE SURVIVOR 2nd DAY SAT. NOV. 14

Eliminated….lousy card…esp. on a weekend.

PLAYERS STILL IN:  984985(one added early second day) of 28272828(one added halfway thru first day card)

Top 10 Contest Favorites

22.81% selected #06 Smoke N Magic in race 1 took win photo

11.29% selected #03 Michael's Dreamin' in race 1 lost win photo

10.42% selected #02 Supply Guy in race 4

9.98% selected #01 Miss Ann H in race 3

7.57% selected #07 Boots Are Walking in race 4

6.47% selected #01 Let's Go Sid in race 9

5.59% selected #05 Rose Fever in race 3

3.18% selected #05 Wild Expectations in race 10

2.63% selected #05 Big Vic in race 1 eliminated, never threatened

2.52% selected #10 Flirtin' With Fire in race 5

2.41% selected #08 Schleprock in race 2

Almost 100 didn’t sign in /  eliminated before racing even starts today. Over 80% of selections ride on first half of the card. It’s not bad to see individual races with 2/3/4 entries among the most popular…hard to get ALL of them to finish in the money…only takes one other contender to hit the board….  Today will be a day where most pass OR get eliminated…. we think the latter may occur.
Our selectee, in the second race, did not garner much attention today. Opens up as 9/2 lukewarm second fave. First race running is kind of encouraging though: two duelers drew away and won by country mile, the outside one winning the photo…although the fractions could’ve  been a bit faster.

RACE 1

fyi  This likely won’t be a contest race for us—in spite of the small field size.

WIN CONTENDERS

6—the likeliest to finish in the money…it’s not the ML fave for nothing: versatile running style  combined with outside post will allow placing in strategic running position. We dislike selecting ML fave though, unless it’s a real slam dunk.

1—can take it all IIFFF three things occur: A. equals highest fig showing in the pp’s B. gets a favorable inside trip C. the drying out strip does not develp a negative rail bias.

3-- by virtue of being able to attend the early pace, could speed pop this bunch of closers.

The rest are fairly evenly-matched fig-wise:

4—may be the best of the rest.

 

RACE 2

Tossup / chaos race—no one can run to par, the fave takes a suspicious drop off a layoff, the debuters look very underwhelming.

1— Lineage leans toward route distances and barn sports subpar record—even worse, they do NOT win with debuters.

1a- Drop from straight maiden, new connections & blinkers on seems encouraging…although barn does NOT win off the layoff.

5— Decent works…although connections records underwhelming & pedigree runs to route distances. Will offer price value though….

9— Some good works. Don’t get the short ML price though: breeding says route & the connections have poor records…as well this barn does NOT win with debuters.

8— Lays over this field on paper…BUT…very, very suspicious layoff + drop into claiming ranks.

2— 2nd ML fave off such a horrendous last race collapse…accompanied by such mediocre jockey & trainer? Please…….

3— Can get a lower share…price not bad…

4— Win contender with a prompt start, better trip & expected improvement. Wish a better rider hopped aboard though…

7— Poor debut effort along with poor works… Asmussen could have this horse properly spotted though….could win or finish last….at least will offer decent odds..

6— Lays over this field early numbers wise…contender for contest selection.

RACE 7

None of the experienced runners can run to par, but unlike the 2nd race, the debuters look promising…and if none come through, there are some live longshots among the others. As well any of the trio of horses with only one race under their belt cannot be summarily dismissed.

 

Entry— Mixed signals. 1 could always surprise, off that outrun debut effort. 1a looks like a promising debuter & the trainer historically does very well at this oval—however, his record with debuters is not that overwhelming… & none of his past wins have been accomplished utilizing this jock…who sports a horrible record.

3— Looks a bit underwhelming….could surprise at a price….

4— Looks very live… surprised ML is so high…do NOT overlook.

9— Very, very live debuter running for very able connections.

5, 6, 10— This trio of second-time starters cannot be dismissed just off that fact alone. 6 offers poor value, though, as ML fave…while 10 should offer a great price….

11— Sports top number….although not by a lot. Should offer a wonderful price.

7— Looks best of rest….won’t offer a bad price either..

 

We’re going with #6 in second race….not sure by any means: debuters have a chance…if one or two fires + if one or two of those with only one start + if the suspicious dropper airs we could wind up out of the money. We figure though, that today the track wil favor speed + possibly the middle of the course…exactly the attributes of our selection; as long as this doesn’t turn into a surprise multi-horse pace duel. We’ll see….

HAWTHORNE SURVIVOR FIRST DAY FRIDAY NOVEMBER 14

Many, many kudos for updating leaderboard right after the last race.

PLAYERS STILL IN:  984 of 28272828…one added to total halfway thru the card

Top 10 Contest Favorites

11.72% selected #01 Prairie Cruiser in race 1 2nd by a neck

10.73% selected #07 Sassy Shore Breeze in race 2 eliminated

10.30% selected #02 Roaring Scout in race 1 eliminated

8.93% selected #06 Sure Start in race 1 very distant third

8.21% selected #09 Cape Adare in race 9 1st by a mile-from dead last, circled field

6.96% selected #07 Lemonade Kid in race 6 eliminated

6.41% selected #02 Bad Bandit in race 4 distant 2nd

5.26% selected #04 Takedown in race 8 2nd, 3-way win photo

4.71% selected #04 Booboo Bee in race 3 eliminated

3.61% selected #06 Light Sleeper in race 2 eliminated

2.41% selected #01 Ms Manipulator in race 5 1st by ½

Over ¼ gone already after just the first DDouble…1/3 after the initial Pk3..

…2/3 total eliminated first day!!!

Dang…how it must suck to be gone before the very first running leaderboard is put up—it must feel like getting eliminated “before the start even”….
The eliminee’s punk associates will prolly ask later on: “Yo, slim… don’t see you in the leaderboard….how ya doin’ in the contest?”
At first the eliminee will pretend he didn’t even hear the question…if the punk persists, he’ll give him a hard stare followed by: “STFU!!!”…. or conversely, a combo 1/3 embarassed, 1/3 nervous, 1/3 defensive bad actor lie: “Which contest?” “Nah… i changed my mind…had something else to do around the first race…” “Yeah, that’s right…i was just too busy then…”

ROTFL

Click here for Hawthorne Live Video from CBS & YouBet 30 minute maximum per day…open & close link for each race only. IP address tracked, so switching computers won’t bypass limit.

Area getting lots of rain—scheduled to continue on / off until just before racetime.  Figuring they’re used to this up there—and with the dark days to prepare—they’ll have the oval in decent condition: meaning no boggy mess, but rather sealed, extra front speed-favoring.

EDIT: With about 1/¼ hours of signup remaining, there are just under 2,800 entries….so about 3K should be final number. Look for over half to as high as 3/4 being eliminated today right off the bat.

One semi-favorable feature: allowed to change choice until the 30 min. before first post deadline.

As far as our choice: with a bit over 1½ hours until first post: 8-5 to 3/2 to 7-5 fave over second choice #6 @ 2-1…everyone else offered 5-1 or greater. More telling is that our choice , actually the second Morning Line choice, has dominated the lower place/show pools to a much greater extent….therefore it may well end up going off odds-on.

EDIT 2: Not many more contest registrations—2827 grand total…which suits us…only first place gets money.

Even better news from the odds board:  other horses taking money…hopefully likewise as far as contest selections.

Okie dokie—choice is a go, repeat: choice is… a…. GO...

The biggest worry today is whether the prolonged & abundant rain creates a swamp, perhaps with a quicksand inside, favorable to closers & wide posts.
Workout times this morning were expectedly very slow, however—there are few announced scratches for today’s racing.

If that occurs, our choice should be easy to maneuver to the best possible part of the track….and hopefully be able to slow down the early pace sufficiently.
Otherwise, any other surface bias scenario should immensely advantage our choice.

RACE 1

Look for the rail horse to have its way alone on the lead all the way.

There are no other frontrunners in this race… it can run 10 lengths slower early than last race and still be clear on the lead by 5+ lengths. Assuming, by its breeding, that it doesn’t dislike wet going….it should romp home. This is only its third career race & second at the route—so it has room for further improvement….in contrast to its foes who have combined for a grand total one place & two show finishes from over 20 races.

Think about it: it’s got the rail on a sealed track at the shortest two-turn route possible, w/ ZERO competition up front—no duelers, stalkers or pressers…no other foe comes in with ascending figs(in fact just the opposite—they’re all exhausting every possibility: blinkers on, blinkers off, lasix, sprint, route, layoff, class drop, rider switch, etc.)….if it doesn’t win today…

Seems like a great contest candidate—we’ll know for sure after looking at the rest of the card.

As for the rest:

#5 could grab a piece—lost a lot of ground early last race, but could improve big with blinkers on for the first time.

#3 Should better debut effort by facing a much less demanding early pace today.

#6 & #2 should duke it out for a lower share. Who knows if the former threw in a clinker last time due to first time blinkers(which come off for this race) or the wet going. Who beats who? Depends on the trip & what part of the track will be better—inside or outside.

#4 Seems up against it, yet has always received a lot of money…at higher levels too.

 

We wouldn’t take anyone else besides #1 here—any of the rest would be no surprise either in the money or dead last.

 

More races coming up…and other tracks after that as well……

 

OK…….. nothing else jumps out…. let’s leave it as our interim / pending choice— prior to scratches / track maintenance report / how the weather transpires….

EPILOGUE

5 nails 1 at the wire…@ a great price. It actually took a LOT of money early on…dipping to 9-2 & looking like it could contend for 3rd favorite…before fading steadily.
Hopefully ML fave 2 took a good amount of contestants down with it.

Weirdly-run race though….anxious moments early for 1: got pinned on the rail and didn’t even make the lead; although a bit later on you could tell its jock wasn’t pushing it at all. As well the riders didn’t steer their mounts out into the middle of the track—just the opposite—two or three skimmed the rail.

Track surface appears very well sealed… and HARD.

See you later with tomorrow’s card.

 

ANOTHER VALUE LESSON

THIS ONE COMES FROM HORSERACING, although it applies universally.

THERE IS NOTHING WRONG WITH PASSING UP A BET…ESP. WHEN THE CONDITIONS ARE NOT IDEAL.

Do NOT fall into the trap that you MUST dope out and bet an inscrutable event—esp. one that does not offer a high rate hit and/or value.
There are many reasons or excuses for this—none valid:

1. It’s the first / only / feature event of the day—how can one start / endure the day like that?

2. My punk friends are betting it—and will surely be crowing afterwards(those that do win that is).

Say you’re gonna watch TV with some of your punk friends…and they’re in the mood for steak--so you all head to the supermarket. Once there, you go to the meat section; but on this day all the meat looks kinda old—perhaps spoiled…and to make matters worse, they’re not running any of their usual price specials.
Do you think if you offer to buy something else or even leave empty-handed you’re friends will berate you with something like: “Aww, don’t be cheap--we should buy some anyway…we have cast iron stomachs!”? Maybe, if they’re morons—but in such a case you wouldn’t have any misgiving with getting something else(race / game / sport) or even going to another market(track / channel)… even not eating(betting) would be a very viable alternative.

So why should wagering & protecting your hard-earned money be any different? Anyway, the moron who pressured you into eating that spoiled steak(bad bet) is likely not going to offer to pickup your hospital bill(refund your lost bet).

Another way to look at it—when you look back on your wagering records***—even if you’re in the black overall(although that misses the point)…dollars to doughnuts you have won less than half of your total bets or sessions / days. Try this this three-part exercise:

A. Draw a line through ‘all large / on tilt ‘ losses and recalculate bottom line.

B. Repeat above, only do so for all large wins instead.

C. Re-calculate with both previous steps “combined”.

Therefore, we can conclude & see how eliminating losses & bets that were not going to pay a high return anyway is so crucial.

*** If you don’t keep records you are a total Mickey Mouse who doesn’t deserve to hold on to his money—at least, that what you’d think of your personal broker or say acquaintance who just opened a new business… if they told you they don’t keep records…but they think they’re: up a little bit / about even / losing / whatever….. why should betting your hard-earned money be any different?

The more you treat your wagering like a legitimate business, the more successfull you will be at it.
The very players / trainers /teams you wager on live or die by stats—you likely base your betting decisions on such—yet you don’t “stat yourself”???

 

What’s that, you say? You win way more than half your bets? Well then, you’re a pro…and already keeping records….thus, this advice doesn’t apply to you. What? You still insist you are up yet don’t keep records? Would you accept such a statement from the trainer of your horse / manager of your investments /team / business???

 

This is an analysis for Aqueduct’s First Race on Thursday November 13, 2008…that we neglected to post in time. BTW the race ran to a tee per our analysis, but that is not the point.

Morning Lines listed with saddlecloth #

LIKELY WINNER:

#6[3-1] Used to a Pace of Race many lengths faster than any of his foes. Could take them wire to wire—although that’s not a slam dunk—the long sprint distance & wet weather may play a negative role; as well, a couple of foes were compromised at the start of their debuts and ran with a closing style—meaning we can’t tell for sure that they’re not frontrunners in reality.

#4[2-1] Most eligible to win if above one tires late.

 

POSSIBLE WINNER / IN THE MONEY CONTENDER:

#5[8-1] Although it’s the contender seemingly offering the best value, it’s not a highly probable win candidate—the top two would BOTH have to falter. It’s running style though, gives it a chance to get a lower slot, as it’s the one most eligibile to keep the top one in close attendance. It’s Achilles Heel though, is that its final time suffers the faster it runs early.

#2[[9/5] Has a chance IF it can post an effort similar to its debut—however, it’s dead-closing style puts it at a disadvantage here(vs a possible lukewarm pace). As well, it will likely offer ZERO VALUE as ML fave.

 

TOSSOUTS

The rest don’t even stand a reasonable chance for the show spot, let alone….

 

RECOMMENDATION

If post time odds follow the Morning Line, this race would be a perfect candidate for passing. The ONLY reason for betting would be if one had live $$ contenders in the next leg of the Daily Double to hook with the top 2/3 here:

1. Favorites are the main contenders, “no longshot is a contender”….to boot, it’s only a 7 horse field, so even the higher-ML contender will likely be offered at much lesser odds.

2. No choice is a slam dunk for two main reasons: questions re handling wet surface, questions re pace duel / running position for a couple of these.

3.  Small projected payoff.

VALUE LESSON

We repeatedly harp on here how you can blindly bet an entire card—be it boxing, ufc, horse matchup, etc.(w/o handicapping)—and turn ‘in the long run’ a profit by betting ‘any and all the plus prices only’. This past Saturday’s boxing was one example:

7 matches only threw one winner(shoulda been two—judges atrociously blew one match)—yet that was enough to yield over one unit profit for the day.

Here’s another one from today:

EHorse Xchange offers Head to Head 2-Horse Matchups during the weekends. Today there were 7 or 8 from three tracks. We missed the first couple—but got to the last six.

Here are the ‘approximate’ odds of the contenders “when we looked at them”:

Aq 8th:  3/5 vs 8/5

CD 8th:  4/5 vs 6/5

CD 9th:  3/5 vs 7/5

Hol 5th: 1/2 vs 8/5

Hol 7th: 4/5 vs E

Hol 8th: 4/5 vs 6/5

It just so happens that all 6 entrants with + odds won—but that is not the point. The average odds of the winners were 6½/5 or +131. At those odds you only need to hit at a 43½% rate to break even(covers exchange commissions too)… if you go 4-6 from 10 races played, you almost break even… if you’d only gone 2-4 from today’s 6 races, you’d be fairly close to break even. If you broke even @ 3-3, you clear almost 1 Unit profit.  A barely above break even 4-2 would net 3¼ Units—almost 54% profit for the day on total amount risked! Today’s actual net was almost 8 units / 133%.

Now, let’s take the other side—let’s say you spend a coupla hours handicapping the card and decide that all the faves are superior. Their avg. odds are 3½/5 or 7/10…requiring you win @ 59% clip to break even. Of every 10 races, you have to average 6-4 record to break even. In today’s example, if you went 3-3, you’d lose 1 Unit(commissions factored in)…. 4-2 would’ve allowed you to clear 3/4 of 1 Unit….5-1 would net 2¼…6-0 a big 4.

 

SECONDARY LESSON RE HORSE MATCHUPS

 

Doesn’t pay to spend too much time handicapping them—an odds-on horse in a head to head matchup could be just the lesser of two longshots… or a contender that winds up surely beaten for the top spot during the race… In either case it likely won’t be persevered with late…ditto for his rival—in effect a coin toss.