Investment Moves and Advice

2009 NEW YEAR’S DAY COLLEGE FOOTBALL BOWL GAMES

2009-01-01T10:49:00.001-05:00

HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!

We’re taking the easy rout out today—a lot of these bowl games turn out to be mismatches—it’s just hard at times to settle on who / the reason why:

from outright class superiority to jittery staff(read choke in big games) to the prolonged time off from season finale affecting timing, team cohesion, even knocking out key players(physical or moral / legal reasons) to even the case of styles make fights(to borrow a boxing lexicon..irregardless of who is the actual superior contender).

Today’s outcomes depend on which team imposes itself on the other one—in most cases our perceived better contenders are either not a scoring juggernaut and/or are known for totally shutting out foes at times at least, or at least will need to score plenty of points to win… while the perceived lesser foes do tend to score a lot(or will need to in order to have a chance)—when they’re able to contend for the win that is.
SO….. we find ourselves in a situation of having a pick in each of today’s 5 bowl games, which can be protected by taking the OVER… when our choice wins, it may still totally overwhelm and/or grind out an Over cover. IF our choice loses, it will most likely be due to not having been able to contain the opposing offense. Additionally, turnovers will likely play a big part in most of these games…and weather should not interfere…giving a potential helping hand to the Overs.

11AM

OUTBACK BOWL--

Iowa—buy points or take an alternate line so as to lay less than a field goal.
Protection: South Carolina Money Line 3/2--9/5 and/or Over 42

1PM

GATOR BOWL--

Nebraska
Combo Protection & Possible Additional Profit: Over 56

CAP1 BOWL--

Georgia--buy points or take an alternate line so as to lay less than a touchdown.
Combo Protection & Possible Additional Profit: Over 56

BET STRUCTURE--

Okie dokie: let’s take 8 UNITS and do ½ unit 2-Team Round Robins, 16 in total. Let’s use Iowa(laying under 3 points), South Carolina ML & the Over 42 each hooked to Nebraska plus points, its Over 56, Georgia(laying under a td) & its Over 56…12 total bets; then criss-cross Nebraska, Georgia, and the two Overs.

We’ll post tonight’s other games and bets later…. tune in during the halftimes for additional bets / hedges / reverses / etc.

FULL WAGERING MENU FOR THANKSGIVING DAY 2008

2008-11-27T09:56:00.001-05:00

RECAP: THE DENVER UNDER, DENVER SIDE, AND MIDDLE OF OVER TEASES LOOKED ALMOST GOLDEN FOR QUITE A WHILE.

THOSE OF YOU THAT HOOKED 2ND HALF TO OHIO ST. TOMORROW—YOU’VE WON THE OVER AND PUSHED WITH DENVER. EDIT: OHIO (MAC) hopefully you caught this glitch…only OHIO playing….

EDIT7: YOU SHOULD STAY PUT….YOU HAVE BOTH SIDES COVERED, WITH A CHANCE TO MIDDLE. HOWEVER, THERE’S A CHANCE TO MAKE FURTHER MONEY--

2 TEASERS:

COLL.FOOT. OHIO ST. TOMORROW w/.

DEN/NO nba SECOND HALF OVER 98

DEN –2 SECOND HALF

EDIT6: Good things come to those who wait….games looking better. The only thing dicey is the NBA under—looks like a track meet so far. We just were able to semi-cover that by taking DEN side. We may be able to see something at halftime for you…we’ll cross that bridge when we get to it.

EDIT5: EXPLANATION OF THESE SECOND HALF BETS

We’re not trying to protect the various parlays—whether yesterday’s continuations into today, or today’s new ones-- for a couple of reasons:

A. yesterday’s are themselves a reverse protection of main plays…at some point you run out of possible profit, barring middling most hedges.

B. today’s parlays were already structured / split with protection in mind—both football sides are semi-protected by OVERS.

We did see some extra profit potential in today’s second halves(irregardless & separate of whether it looks like our original plays are losing--more on that in a second)—so we are attempting to use those to protect today’s NBA nightcap AND hopefully middle both the original bet and this Teaser Criss-Cross Reverse Hedge. Coincidentally, one of those reverses does protect one of the main games—the Texas side…so extra gravy for us.

As far as our bets not looking so hot early on:

A. NFL Ariz likely won’t come back to make a game….but the Over protection should hit.

B. Coll. Foot—we did manage to cover the reverse of Texas…albeit w/ the reverse of the nightcap. There’s only so much you can do—sometimes you’re gonna take a loss. Although there’s still a good chance Texas will keep gradually wearing down A&M, and the latter will press & commit mistakes / give up turnover points.

All in all, we’re not sitting too bad…esp. if we can middle some things.

EDIT4: 1½ UNIT TEASER: NFL SECOND HALF currently at 23½ w/ NBA OVER of Den/NO

EDIT3: TWO 1½ UNIT TEASERS: OVER of Den/NO w/:

SECOND HALF….TEXAS A&M currently at +17 / OVER of SAME GAME currently at 30

EDIT2: THOSE OF YOU WITH TWO OPEN SERIES, DO THIS:

1½ UNITS EACH…Key UNDER of Den/NO in two-team parlays with:

College Texas / Coll. Foot.OVER of Texas / AM

EDIT: ADDING SPORTS

Those of you with open series from last night hooked with Arizona NFL do the following:

2 units Teaser: Ariz OVER w/ Coll. Foot.OVER of Texas / AM

1 Unit Parlay: Texas w/ NBA UNDER of Den/NO

All others:

Key UNDER of Den/NO in two-team parlays with:

Ariz NFL / Ariz OVER / College Texas / Coll. Foot.OVER of Texas / AM

Ensure you peek in during halves—we will look to protect games, esp. the NBA. FYI the overs above semi-protect / hedge the individual sides.

Wake up early—we start the day off @ 11am w/ Calder’s first race. We’ll have horses & sports for you.

CRC Calder Race Course

RACE 1

WIN CONTENDERS

5[6-1]---- May have a lone lead…

7[8-5]---- If healthy, fit, and ready would decimate this field…as its ML odds suggest.

2[4-1]---- Best closer—chance for top prize if frontrunner tires and 7 is not ready or suffers a trip mishap.

The rest are overmatched.

BTW #1 is best of the rest, but is a career maiden…and even though it will be advantageously placed inside, we recommend LAYING it(betting it to LOSE at an exchange).

EDIT: The way the post time odds go—7 is 1/5, 2 & 5 are 5 & 8 to 1 respectively….the play becomes a Dutch of: 2 & 5 WIN & EXACTAS: 7 OVER 2 & 5 & 1

RACE 5

WIN CONTENDERS

2[3-1]----Has improving numbers & the fastest closing time… projects to sit just off the lead.

3[6-1]----Small chance of winding up alone on an early lead… a danger at this short distance. Now, that is not very likely—but couple that with a decent price—& it becomes a must play.

7[5-1]----With continued improvement AND a clean break, ditto # 3. We actually prefer it over 3…but price rules(projected).

Just to clear up: the distance of this race, coupled with the young age of these horses, makes this a tough race to key on any one.
It’s very likely that 3 & 7 would duel each other into exhaustion, thus setting things up for 2.
And it’s actually even a bit more likely that 7 will win the early lead.
But….. if watch head on shots of the start of races consistently, you’ll notice how this type of horse is not very good at at clean / straight break—it often is a wonder how many of these don’t fall down / are left behind at the break. As well, there are no others in here fast enough to keep up early w/ either of these…couple that with the short distance of this race… the small price of our leading contender(2nd ML fave)…and it’s tough to bet that the break will be uneventful for all.

LAY(bet to lose) CONTENDERS

IF you have access to an exchange, these are the candidates:

1- Cheap speed. Even when able to make lone lead, it falters late…at shorter distances to boot. This horse is only suited to bullring ovals where 4½ F distances are regularly carded. The coup de grace here is that its fastest early speed still places it some 10 lengths back of the quickest ones here.

4- Slow early and slow late…. should finish among the back of the pack.

6- Looks like a declining horse based on figs--- kinda confirmed by the rather quick & repeated willingness of its connections to lower the asking price. NOW, we could be wrong…maybe it just bounced off the wet track effort…BUT as the ‘clear projected favorite’ makes no sense to back w/ our money. This horse only makes it into the win contender group with multiple scratches in the main contender group.

EDIT: KINDA LIKE WE SCRIPTED IT, NO?

AQU AQUEDUCT

RACE 2

WIN CONTENDERS

Looks like only one possiblity==

2[3-1]— projects to have the lead all to itself.
2B[3-1]-entrymate has the fastest closing time.

BTW re ML favorite 6—looks like a career maiden…we will put it in LAY group.

LAY(bet to lose) CONTENDERS

everyone else looks overmatched… we will look to lay 8[safer] before 6(ml fave).

EDIT: THIS ONE THE OPPOSITE OF PREVIOUS…. TRANSPIRED BASS ACKWARDS OF HOW WE PREDICTED.

ALL IN ALL, THE PONIES THREW A NET PROFIT FOR THE DAY FOR BOTH YOU AND US—WHETHER PARIMUTUELLLY OR EXCHANGE-WISE.

WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 26

2008-11-26T20:26:00.001-05:00

PEN PENN NATIONAL RACE 5

Real quick..no time to post analysis… #7 is a false favorite…we will lay it…and the proceeds will go on NBA later..stay tuned….

EDIT: this Morning Line second fave drifted from 9/5 fave all the way to closing 8-1.

NBA

DENVER NUGGETS –4 TO -4½

The winnings will kick off tomorrow, Thanksgiving….we have plenty of plays on tap….

we may be around at halftime here for second half betting…

EDIT:

HEDGE-- 3 TEAM TEASER

[½ your DENV bet) LA CLIPS 2nd HALF +2½ WITH:

TENN OVER 44(NFL) WITH:

ARIZ +3

so, depending on your books’ teaser types and rules, you should be getting +5 to 7 points with clips, over 36 to 38, and ariz + 9-11 points… There is a slight chance to middle / win both the regular nba bet and its second half hedge BTW.

EDIT 2:

IIFFF you’re offered 4th quarter betting, pull out another ½ bet--

tease clips WITH arizona over 46 WITH tennesee -11

Monday November 24 Sports Picks

2008-11-24T19:28:00.001-05:00

EDIT2: PRACTICALLY IN A NO-LOSE SITUATION TONIGHT: CHAR PULLING AAAWAY LATE…LED MOST OF THE GAME….MEM WE HAVE BOTH SIDES COVERED W/ A MIDDLE POSSIBILITY…NFL LOOKS LIKE WILL FULLFILL OUR THINKING: HIGH-SCORING GAME WITH ONE SIDE PULLING AWAY LATE—3 TD’S IN FIRST QUARTER, WITH ANOTHER SCORE ON THE WAY.

EDIT: ADDING FOOTBALL + CHANGING MEMPHIS BETS: ½ unit 2-team parlays: MEM + points with:

GREEN BAY –3½ +170 to +180

GB-NO OVER 57 to 58 +180 to +190

NO –2 +112

We’re a little late for the first leg..7pm. Our choices are:

7pm Char +4½ to +6

8pm Mem + 3 to +4½

10½pm Clips +5½ to +7

The original plan was to round robin them. Plan B now is to find alternate lines / + odds, to avoid going 2-1(including missed first game) and still winding up in the minus column for the night.

~~Let’s do 1 UNIT on MEM Money Line +135 to +150.~~

~~IF we win, we’ll pull back original unit + ½ the net, and ride the rest on: LA Clips + points.~~

IF we lose first bet, then: second UNIT on LA Clips Money Line +180 to +240

Odds range will vary depending on book…BTW

We will be present for any hedging opportunities re second half / later quarter lines…..

EDIT: THOSE OF YOU ON CHAR CAN NOW TAKE 2ND HALF PHI –2½..YOU’LL HAVE A CHANCE AT A MIDDLE WHILE PROTECTING YOUR INITIAL BET….WE WILL MANUALLY HOOK PROCEEDS LATER TONITE INTO SOMETHING ELSE…LIKELY TO PROTECT LATER GAMES AS WELL…
IDEALLY, IF THE BOOK ALLOWS, WOULD BE TO TEASE PHI 2ND HALF W/ LA CLIPS LATER ON BTW.

SAME APPLIES TO MEM GAME ABOUT TO HIT HALFTIME, NOW REVERSE & TAKE SA 2ND HALF(PK TO –1). TEASE THAT W/ LA CLIPS.

LET’S COVER THE MIDDLE SCORE WE LEFT OPEN IN MNF…GB IS BEING OFFERED –½ +120…. LET’S TEASE THAT W/: LA CLIPS + POINTS(RIGHT NOW @ +7)

THE TOTAL WE’LL LEAVE UNPROTECTED—IT’S LESS THAN TWO TD’S AWAY FROM CLICKING.

NOW COME TAKE SOME OF THE NET FOR TONITE(CALCULATE WHAT YOU HAVE IN HAND FROM CHAR GAME + THE PAYOFFS OF EVERYTHING RIDING ON LA CLIPS TEASERS) AND BET SOME ON NO -6½….OR BETTER YET iffff YOUR BOOK ALLOWS: AN OPEN-ENDED TEASER OF NO & THE OTHER SIDE TO BE DECIDED TOMORROW.

MAKE IT SO THAT YOU PROFIT 2 PARTS IF CLIPS WIN, 1 PART IF NO WINS…..AND OF COURSE, YOU HAVE A GREAT CHANCE TO MIDDLE EVERYTHING.

WE MISSED CHAR GAME, SO WE WILL PROCEED A BIT DIFFERENTLY.

EPILOGUE

LET’S DO IT AHEAD OF TIME—MNF JUST WENT OVER IN THE THIRD QUARTER…AND WE HAVE OURSELVES GUARANTEED PROFIT NO MATTER WHO WINS BOTH FOOTBALL AND BASKETBALL GAMES.

THINK ABOUT IT:

WE’VE MADE MONEY IN SPITE OF MISSING FIRST GAME WINNER TODAY, LOSING THE NEXT BB GAME…THE FOOTBALL GAME WASN’T EVEN A ONE SIDED BET, BUT MORE OF A LEAN, AS WE BET BOTH SIDES(TOWARDS NO btw), AND WE CAN LOSE THE NIGHTCAP BB GAME AND STILL MAKE MONEY!!! WHAT A COUNTRY….A LICENSE TO PRINT MONEY!!!

THE ONLY REGRET TODAY, APART FROM MISSING FIRST GAME, IS NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND AN ALTERNATE MNF LINE WITH NO GIVING MORE POINTS.

SEE YOU NEXT TIME, TX FOR TUNING IN.

PS ONE MORE:

2ndHalf NO HORNETS -3½-110 over 93-110

LET’S DO EITHER OF TWO THINGS:

1. PROTECT(& POSSIBLY MIDDLE) SOME OF THE LARGER PROFIT RIDING ON LA CLIPS BY: TEASING NO(OPEN-ENDED)…

2. WIN MORE PROFIT WITH AN OPEN-ENDED PARLAY OF OVER 93…

Monday November 24 Simulcast Musings

2008-11-24T12:15:00.001-05:00

EDIT: KEEP CHECKING, AS WE ADD LATER RACES TOWARDS THE BOTTOM… AS WELL WE’LL HAVE SOME SPORTS ACTION IN AN IMMINENT SUBSEQUENT THREAD

Some races we’ve come across in our handicapping:

PHA PHILADELPHIA PARK

RACE 4--

This is a subpar group of horses at a demanding distance to boot—ergo no lock / surprise possible / demand odds value. We ourselves will pass the race—cannot eliminate for certain any of the top three contenders. If you insist on betting this race, we would recommend only Exactas or serial Pik bets.

5[4-1]—is doing well form cycle-wise, but may just end up repeating last race—clear on the lead but fading late. It’s dangerous to blithely dismiss a horse alone on the lead early though…but depending on posttime odds(low), the only way to play this horse may be hooked in exotics with others.

7[8-1]—the rider change to Cotto signals a well-meant try, and more importantly—a likely attempt at the front early. It may be able to duel #5 to exhaustion, or lay in close attendance to try and inherit the lead upon #5’s expected late fade. It’s not a likely win candidate, but more of a lower in the money slot…but is still dangerous for the top spot as the one laying in closest attendance to the projected pacesetter.

4[8-5]—AND..

8[5-2]—are both obvious win contenders—both evenly matched…all depends on which one gets the better trip. Expect very poor odds from both though.

1[10-1]-if the layoff helped, it can take it all with its top career number.

3[20-1]-contender for lower slot only…needs a fast pace up front, and doesn’t look like that will occur today. Odds will not hurt though….

The rest look outmatched:

6[15-1]-just looking at its naked pp’s, w/o adjusted figs—makes this entrant intriguing. However, even on the races where it raced forwardly early, the pace was abysmally slow. This horse projects 20-30 lengths back early

2[30-1]- please….

EDIT: winner 5 shortened stride(and bore out) late, but today, NO ONE ELSE was doing any significant running…even the second place finisher 4, who was dead last early, NEVER threatened(btw offered atrocious value, along with 8). Hopefully you audibled based on the odds—the winner, as third ML fave, projected to pay $7-9…and instead was let go at 6½-1.
7 was softened up enough early to allow 6 to sneak into third…the only surprise.

CRC CALDER RACE COURSE

RACE 6--

Don’t get married to the obvious contenders here—NONE of these have run to par—some longshots have an outstanding chance here:

8[10-1]---actually has top number—extracted internal sprint figure from route…IF it can get a good trip from that outside post AND not lag far back early, it has a great chance at a price.

12[10-1]--second best number….same potential negatives as 8.

9[12-1]—-another live horse at a price—with expected improvement second off the layoff AND a trouble-free trip…

3[20-1]—-this is a type of horse that when it clicks will offer a monster mutuel: has endured racing trouble often AND is usually not perservered w/ late—a trouble-free trip combined w/ finding itself within striking range…

10[6-1]—-third best number…MUST get a trouble-free trip.

2[4-1]----needs to top career best fig to compete here…odds will offer poor value…hook it with price contenders if you must play it.

4[6-1]----we would LOVE to see this horse SENT EARLY…has the ability to clear everyone early….

7[20-1]---hasn’t shown anything, BUT—that has been in two races only…gets a positive jock switch..worth including in exotics at a juicy price.

5 & 6---- don’t have anything to recommend them….at least the former has better value @ 15-1 vs 6-1 Morning Line…

11[3-1]---mediocre fig, bad post and POOR value…ELIMINATE it from consideration…We will LAY this pig at an exchange.

EDIT:

Finishing order: 12-9-2-10-6-1… #’s 8,7,6,5 had poor starts.

$2 Trifecta
12-9-2
$3782.80

Enuff said.

RACE 9--

The problem with backing someone to win here strongly is that the early pace looks uncertain / chaotic…at this short distance, anyone lucky enough to find itself on the front will likely stay there all the way.

1[3-1]----Our top choice…could decimate this field. Only two negatives abound—the unsettled early pace dilemma, and haveing entrymate guarantees low odds…

11[12-1]--improving horse at a very nice price…must NOT be left out of your exotics.

10[30-1]-VERY, VERY dangerous horse to discard at monster odds!!! Its 2 career races, although dismal-looking, could’ve been only public workouts. This horse has the second-fastest finishing time…any kind of a decent start + early push may put it within striking range—notice how last start it broke well BUT was taken back…

9[6-1]----capable of taking them wire to wire ‘on its best day’…and that’s just the issue: we can’t tell for sure if its form cycle is on the way down OR it just needs a lone / unpressured lead…

6[10-1]---we think its form cycle may be on the way down…on the other hand will offer decent value…

4[15-1]---can get a LOWER slot at a price…

~~7[8-1]----horse with some gate issues getting a positive switch to an alert gate jock…~~ scratched

5[5-2]----chance at a piece of the purse….poor value as ML fave…may be an absolute tossout depending on (low)posttime odds

2-Entry- not much to recommend it, BUT it’s not bad to get two horses for 1 at a monster price…there are much worse bets in horseracing…

EDIT: 1 proved us correct…5 hung on better than we thought…4 garnered third despite poor start…6 & 9(esp. the latter) confirmed their poor form…10 broke poorly and always trailed…11 faded while strung out wide…2 entry did nothing as expected….

MNR MOUNTAQUEER…err… MOUNTAINEER

RACE 2--

1[6-5]----is legitimate. The ONLY possible fly in the ointment is that its early pace figure is a bit subpar(much superior to its experienced foes here though)—so that a first timer(three here today) with average talent could feasibly outgun it for the lead. That, however, doesn’t seem likely—as for the most part the debuters have route pedigrees..and to boot are handled by mediocre connections.
Its main pacesetting competitor:

9[8-1]----has substantially inferior internal and final numbers. Although…its final number is second best…better than second ML fave:

6[7-2]----why this horse is so highly-rated beats us…it’s a tossout in our book—esp. w/ that poor projected value.

So, the question becomes: can 9 not get too burned up by dueling 1…and give us a cold exacta? Otherwise it becomes The Charge of the Light Brigade for Place Money….an exacta wheel should then consist of all others except for any with poor value: 6 and maybe 5….though you never can predict the odds for sure until post time.

You could also do a Tri Key leaving 6 out completely(assuming it becomes second choice…if not, use it) AND 9 ONLY in the third slot(assuming it becomes third fave…otherwise include in place slot). Your ticket would look like so:

1
with
2/3/4/5/7/9/10
with
2/3/4/5/7/8/9/10
49 combos.

We lean towards the exacta….can’t see the tri paying so much with a bridgejumper fave on top…but you never know…maybe it’ll vie for favoritism with 6…

NOTHING TO BET HERE.. 1 @ 1/5 - 2/5 THE WHOLE WAY…..

RACE 8--

Not much here…race looks to be a pace duel between 5 & 7…. the former edged out the latter two back…but the tables(press on outside flank) should be turned here. They will both not offer any odds value.

The only other thing of note is that 1 is overrated…we will see if we can LAY it at our horse exchange.

BTW Minimum $2.20 payoffs may make a bridgejumper bet on 7 worthwhile…stay tuned.

HAWTHORNE SURVIVOR 2nd DAY SAT. NOV. 14

2008-11-14T21:07:00.001-05:00

Eliminated….lousy card…esp. on a weekend.

PLAYERS STILL IN: ~~984~~985(one added early second day) of ~~2827~~2828(one added halfway thru first day card)

Top 10 Contest Favorites

22.81% selected #06 Smoke N Magic in race 1 took win photo

11.29% selected #03 Michael's Dreamin' in race 1 lost win photo

10.42% selected #02 Supply Guy in race 4

9.98% selected #01 Miss Ann H in race 3

7.57% selected #07 Boots Are Walking in race 4

6.47% selected #01 Let's Go Sid in race 9

5.59% selected #05 Rose Fever in race 3

3.18% selected #05 Wild Expectations in race 10

~~2.63% selected #05 Big Vic in race 1~~ eliminated, never threatened

2.52% selected #10 Flirtin' With Fire in race 5

2.41% selected #08 Schleprock in race 2

Almost 100 didn’t sign in / eliminated before racing even starts today. Over 80% of selections ride on first half of the card. It’s not bad to see individual races with 2/3/4 entries among the most popular…hard to get ALL of them to finish in the money…only takes one other contender to hit the board…. Today will be a day where most pass OR get eliminated…. we think the latter may occur.
Our selectee, in the second race, did not garner much attention today. Opens up as 9/2 lukewarm second fave. First race running is kind of encouraging though: two duelers drew away and won by country mile, the outside one winning the photo…although the fractions could’ve been a bit faster.

RACE 1

fyi This likely won’t be a contest race for us—in spite of the small field size.

WIN CONTENDERS

6—the likeliest to finish in the money…it’s not the ML fave for nothing: versatile running style combined with outside post will allow placing in strategic running position. We dislike selecting ML fave though, unless it’s a real slam dunk.

1—can take it all IIFFF three things occur: A. equals highest fig showing in the pp’s B. gets a favorable inside trip C. the drying out strip does not develp a negative rail bias.

3-- by virtue of being able to attend the early pace, could speed pop this bunch of closers.

The rest are fairly evenly-matched fig-wise:

4—may be the best of the rest.

RACE 2

Tossup / chaos race—no one can run to par, the fave takes a suspicious drop off a layoff, the debuters look very underwhelming.

1— Lineage leans toward route distances and barn sports subpar record—even worse, they do NOT win with debuters.

1a- Drop from straight maiden, new connections & blinkers on seems encouraging…although barn does NOT win off the layoff.

5— Decent works…although connections records underwhelming & pedigree runs to route distances. Will offer price value though….

9— Some good works. Don’t get the short ML price though: breeding says route & the connections have poor records…as well this barn does NOT win with debuters.

8— Lays over this field on paper…BUT…very, very suspicious layoff + drop into claiming ranks.

2— 2nd ML fave off such a horrendous last race collapse…accompanied by such mediocre jockey & trainer? Please…….

3— Can get a lower share…price not bad…

4— Win contender with a prompt start, better trip & expected improvement. Wish a better rider hopped aboard though…

7— Poor debut effort along with poor works… Asmussen could have this horse properly spotted though….could win or finish last….at least will offer decent odds..

6— Lays over this field early numbers wise…contender for contest selection.

RACE 7

None of the experienced runners can run to par, but unlike the 2nd race, the debuters look promising…and if none come through, there are some live longshots among the others. As well any of the trio of horses with only one race under their belt cannot be summarily dismissed.

Entry— Mixed signals. 1 could always surprise, off that outrun debut effort. 1a looks like a promising debuter & the trainer historically does very well at this oval—however, his record with debuters is not that overwhelming… & none of his past wins have been accomplished utilizing this jock…who sports a horrible record.

3— Looks a bit underwhelming….could surprise at a price….

4— Looks very live… surprised ML is so high…do NOT overlook.

9— Very, very live debuter running for very able connections.

5, 6, 10— This trio of second-time starters cannot be dismissed just off that fact alone. 6 offers poor value, though, as ML fave…while 10 should offer a great price….

11— Sports top number….although not by a lot. Should offer a wonderful price.

7— Looks best of rest….won’t offer a bad price either..

We’re going with #6 in second race….not sure by any means: debuters have a chance…if one or two fires + if one or two of those with only one start + if the suspicious dropper airs we could wind up out of the money. We figure though, that today the track wil favor speed + possibly the middle of the course…exactly the attributes of our selection; as long as this doesn’t turn into a surprise multi-horse pace duel. We’ll see….

HAWTHORNE SURVIVOR FIRST DAY FRIDAY NOVEMBER 14

2008-11-13T22:43:00.001-05:00

Many, many kudos for updating leaderboard right after the last race.

PLAYERS STILL IN: 984 of ~~2827~~2828…one added to total halfway thru the card

Top 10 Contest Favorites

11.72% selected #01 Prairie Cruiser in race 1 2nd by a neck

~~10.73% selected #07 Sassy Shore Breeze in race 2~~ eliminated

~~10.30% selected #02 Roaring Scout in race 1~~ eliminated

8.93% selected #06 Sure Start in race 1 very distant third

8.21% selected #09 Cape Adare in race 9 1st by a mile-from dead last, circled field

~~6.96% selected #07 Lemonade Kid in race 6~~ eliminated

6.41% selected #02 Bad Bandit in race 4 distant 2nd

5.26% selected #04 Takedown in race 8 2nd, 3-way win photo

~~4.71% selected #04 Booboo Bee in race 3~~ eliminated

~~3.61% selected #06 Light Sleeper in race 2~~ eliminated

2.41% selected #01 Ms Manipulator in race 5 1st by ½

Over ¼ gone already after just the first DDouble…1/3 after the initial Pk3..

…2/3 total eliminated first day!!!

Dang…how it must suck to be gone before the very first running leaderboard is put up—it must feel like getting eliminated “before the start even”….
The eliminee’s punk associates will prolly ask later on: “Yo, slim… don’t see you in the leaderboard….how ya doin’ in the contest?”
At first the eliminee will pretend he didn’t even hear the question…if the punk persists, he’ll give him a hard stare followed by: “STFU!!!”…. or conversely, a combo 1/3 embarassed, 1/3 nervous, 1/3 defensive bad actor lie: “Which contest?” “Nah… i changed my mind…had something else to do around the first race…” “Yeah, that’s right…i was just too busy then…”

ROTFL

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Area getting lots of rain—scheduled to continue on / off until just before racetime. Figuring they’re used to this up there—and with the dark days to prepare—they’ll have the oval in decent condition: meaning no boggy mess, but rather sealed, extra front speed-favoring.

EDIT: With about 1/¼ hours of signup remaining, there are just under 2,800 entries….so about 3K should be final number. Look for over half to as high as 3/4 being eliminated today right off the bat.

One semi-favorable feature: allowed to change choice until the 30 min. before first post deadline.

As far as our choice: with a bit over 1½ hours until first post: 8-5 to 3/2 to 7-5 fave over second choice #6 @ 2-1…everyone else offered 5-1 or greater. More telling is that our choice , actually the second Morning Line choice, has dominated the lower place/show pools to a much greater extent….therefore it may well end up going off odds-on.

EDIT 2: Not many more contest registrations—2827 grand total…which suits us…only first place gets money.

Even better news from the odds board: other horses taking money…hopefully likewise as far as contest selections.

Okie dokie—choice is a go, repeat: choice is… a…. GO...

The biggest worry today is whether the prolonged & abundant rain creates a swamp, perhaps with a quicksand inside, favorable to closers & wide posts.
Workout times this morning were expectedly very slow, however—there are few announced scratches for today’s racing.

If that occurs, our choice should be easy to maneuver to the best possible part of the track….and hopefully be able to slow down the early pace sufficiently.
Otherwise, any other surface bias scenario should immensely advantage our choice.

RACE 1

Look for the rail horse to have its way alone on the lead all the way.

There are no other frontrunners in this race… it can run 10 lengths slower early than last race and still be clear on the lead by 5+ lengths. Assuming, by its breeding, that it doesn’t dislike wet going….it should romp home. This is only its third career race & second at the route—so it has room for further improvement….in contrast to its foes who have combined for a grand total one place & two show finishes from over 20 races.

Think about it: it’s got the rail on a sealed track at the shortest two-turn route possible, w/ ZERO competition up front—no duelers, stalkers or pressers…no other foe comes in with ascending figs(in fact just the opposite—they’re all exhausting every possibility: blinkers on, blinkers off, lasix, sprint, route, layoff, class drop, rider switch, etc.)….if it doesn’t win today…

Seems like a great contest candidate—we’ll know for sure after looking at the rest of the card.

As for the rest:

#5 could grab a piece—lost a lot of ground early last race, but could improve big with blinkers on for the first time.

#3 Should better debut effort by facing a much less demanding early pace today.

#6 & #2 should duke it out for a lower share. Who knows if the former threw in a clinker last time due to first time blinkers(which come off for this race) or the wet going. Who beats who? Depends on the trip & what part of the track will be better—inside or outside.

#4 Seems up against it, yet has always received a lot of money…at higher levels too.

We wouldn’t take anyone else besides #1 here—any of the rest would be no surprise either in the money or dead last.

More races coming up…and other tracks after that as well……

OK…….. nothing else jumps out…. let’s leave it as our interim / pending choice— prior to scratches / track maintenance report / how the weather transpires….

EPILOGUE

5 nails 1 at the wire…@ a great price. It actually took a LOT of money early on…dipping to 9-2 & looking like it could contend for 3rd favorite…before fading steadily.
Hopefully ML fave 2 took a good amount of contestants down with it.

Weirdly-run race though….anxious moments early for 1: got pinned on the rail and didn’t even make the lead; although a bit later on you could tell its jock wasn’t pushing it at all. As well the riders didn’t steer their mounts out into the middle of the track—just the opposite—two or three skimmed the rail.

Track surface appears very well sealed… and HARD.

See you later with tomorrow’s card.

ANOTHER VALUE LESSON

2008-11-13T15:14:00.001-05:00

THIS ONE COMES FROM HORSERACING, although it applies universally.

THERE IS NOTHING WRONG WITH PASSING UP A BET…ESP. WHEN THE CONDITIONS ARE NOT IDEAL.

Do NOT fall into the trap that you MUST dope out and bet an inscrutable event—esp. one that does not offer a high rate hit and/or value.
There are many reasons or excuses for this—none valid:

1. It’s the first / only / feature event of the day—how can one start / endure the day like that?

2. My punk friends are betting it—and will surely be crowing afterwards(those that do win that is).

Say you’re gonna watch TV with some of your punk friends…and they’re in the mood for steak--so you all head to the supermarket. Once there, you go to the meat section; but on this day all the meat looks kinda old—perhaps spoiled…and to make matters worse, they’re not running any of their usual price specials.
Do you think if you offer to buy something else or even leave empty-handed you’re friends will berate you with something like: “Aww, don’t be cheap--we should buy some anyway…we have cast iron stomachs!”? Maybe, if they’re morons—but in such a case you wouldn’t have any misgiving with getting something else(race / game / sport) or even going to another market(track / channel)… even not eating(betting) would be a very viable alternative.

So why should wagering & protecting your hard-earned money be any different? Anyway, the moron who pressured you into eating that spoiled steak(bad bet) is likely not going to offer to pickup your hospital bill(refund your lost bet).

Another way to look at it—when you look back on your wagering records***—even if you’re in the black overall(although that misses the point)…dollars to doughnuts you have won less than half of your total bets or sessions / days. Try this this three-part exercise:

A. Draw a line through ‘all large / on tilt ‘ losses and recalculate bottom line.

B. Repeat above, only do so for all large wins instead.

C. Re-calculate with both previous steps “combined”.

Therefore, we can conclude & see how eliminating losses & bets that were not going to pay a high return anyway is so crucial.

*** If you don’t keep records you are a total Mickey Mouse who doesn’t deserve to hold on to his money—at least, that what you’d think of your personal broker or say acquaintance who just opened a new business… if they told you they don’t keep records…but they think they’re: up a little bit / about even / losing / whatever….. why should betting your hard-earned money be any different?

The more you treat your wagering like a legitimate business, the more successfull you will be at it.
The very players / trainers /teams you wager on live or die by stats—you likely base your betting decisions on such—yet you don’t “stat yourself”???

What’s that, you say? You win way more than half your bets? Well then, you’re a pro…and already keeping records….thus, this advice doesn’t apply to you. What? You still insist you are up yet don’t keep records? Would you accept such a statement from the trainer of your horse / manager of your investments /team / business???

This is an analysis for Aqueduct’s First Race on Thursday November 13, 2008…that we neglected to post in time. BTW the race ran to a tee per our analysis, but that is not the point.

Morning Lines listed with saddlecloth #

LIKELY WINNER:

#6[3-1] Used to a Pace of Race many lengths faster than any of his foes. Could take them wire to wire—although that’s not a slam dunk—the long sprint distance & wet weather may play a negative role; as well, a couple of foes were compromised at the start of their debuts and ran with a closing style—meaning we can’t tell for sure that they’re not frontrunners in reality.

#4[2-1] Most eligible to win if above one tires late.

POSSIBLE WINNER / IN THE MONEY CONTENDER:

#5[8-1] Although it’s the contender seemingly offering the best value, it’s not a highly probable win candidate—the top two would BOTH have to falter. It’s running style though, gives it a chance to get a lower slot, as it’s the one most eligibile to keep the top one in close attendance. It’s Achilles Heel though, is that its final time suffers the faster it runs early.

#2[[9/5] Has a chance IF it can post an effort similar to its debut—however, it’s dead-closing style puts it at a disadvantage here(vs a possible lukewarm pace). As well, it will likely offer ZERO VALUE as ML fave.

TOSSOUTS

The rest don’t even stand a reasonable chance for the show spot, let alone….

RECOMMENDATION

If post time odds follow the Morning Line, this race would be a perfect candidate for passing. The ONLY reason for betting would be if one had live $$ contenders in the next leg of the Daily Double to hook with the top 2/3 here:

1. Favorites are the main contenders, “no longshot is a contender”….to boot, it’s only a 7 horse field, so even the higher-ML contender will likely be offered at much lesser odds.

2. No choice is a slam dunk for two main reasons: questions re handling wet surface, questions re pace duel / running position for a couple of these.

3. Small projected payoff.

VALUE LESSON

2008-11-10T01:32:00.001-05:00

We repeatedly harp on here how you can blindly bet an entire card—be it boxing, ufc, horse matchup, etc.(w/o handicapping)—and turn ‘in the long run’ a profit by betting ‘any and all the plus prices only’. This past Saturday’s boxing was one example:

7 matches only threw one winner(shoulda been two—judges atrociously blew one match)—yet that was enough to yield over one unit profit for the day.

Here’s another one from today:

EHorse Xchange offers Head to Head 2-Horse Matchups during the weekends. Today there were 7 or 8 from three tracks. We missed the first couple—but got to the last six.

Here are the ‘approximate’ odds of the contenders “when we looked at them”:

Aq 8th: 3/5 vs 8/5

CD 8th: 4/5 vs 6/5

CD 9th: 3/5 vs 7/5

Hol 5th: 1/2 vs 8/5

Hol 7th: 4/5 vs E

Hol 8th: 4/5 vs 6/5

It just so happens that all 6 entrants with + odds won—but that is not the point. The average odds of the winners were 6½/5 or +131. At those odds you only need to hit at a 43½% rate to break even(covers exchange commissions too)… if you go 4-6 from 10 races played, you almost break even… if you’d only gone 2-4 from today’s 6 races, you’d be fairly close to break even. If you broke even @ 3-3, you clear almost 1 Unit profit. A barely above break even 4-2 would net 3¼ Units—almost 54% profit for the day on total amount risked! Today’s actual net was almost 8 units / 133%.

Now, let’s take the other side—let’s say you spend a coupla hours handicapping the card and decide that all the faves are superior. Their avg. odds are 3½/5 or 7/10…requiring you win @ 59% clip to break even. Of every 10 races, you have to average 6-4 record to break even. In today’s example, if you went 3-3, you’d lose 1 Unit(commissions factored in)…. 4-2 would’ve allowed you to clear 3/4 of 1 Unit….5-1 would net 2¼…6-0 a big 4.

SECONDARY LESSON RE HORSE MATCHUPS

Doesn’t pay to spend too much time handicapping them—an odds-on horse in a head to head matchup could be just the lesser of two longshots… or a contender that winds up surely beaten for the top spot during the race… In either case it likely won’t be persevered with late…ditto for his rival—in effect a coin toss.

MORON OF THE DAY, STRONZO DEL GIORNO

2008-11-08T14:47:00.001-05:00

QUALIFIER

It’s not the greatest sin in the world to be a moron—we all are or have been in some area—after all, we’re human. But the saying “a little knowledge can be dangerous” holds very true; this saying we believe arose due to a “plethora of arrogant imbeciles / sacco di cretini imbecili”. Someone who fancies his/herself and expert AND thus won’t improve can be very, very dangerous—whether in Nascar, politics, bj tourney, etc…besides annoying, of course.

Please keep in mind that we have a genteel disposition, kind nature and secure psyche: we go out of our way to help others , make them feel comfortable around us, respect their privacy & space, etc.; as well we optimistically assume the best from others. We are among the least predisposed to for instance—argue with someone on the street who crosses our path, or take something someone says the wrong way. We believe in serving others—both thru volunteer and paid work: we help charities out and for years worked in the hospitality industry: the customer(& by extension all strangers we run into) is always right… or at the very least deserves the benefit of the doubt.

So, the rare times when we cross swords with someone, it’s usually over the straw the broke the camel’s back—someone is either purposefully bullying someone or incoveniencing others thru unchecked, irresponsible behavior.

1. BLACKJACK DONKS—especially in tournament play….they should be banned. You know the kind—they base their hand decisions by what card ‘they feel is coming and/or due’.
They’ll usually stand a 13 vs dealer 7-ace showing while doubling down 15 vs a 5 showing. The advanced ones will take it further and split 6-6, 8-8 vs ace or ten showing, double down their bj w/ a ten showing, stand with a sub-10 total vs a high card, hit their 19 or 20 vs a soft card, etc.

Yes, there are special situations where strategy dictates unorthodox moves…but not from the start, on every hand…and with a full or half bankroll bet; to boot during an initial round when half the table(or more) advances anyway.

You might think this sounds harsh, but such an animal not only loses, but takes others down with him / her—either by taking the bust card of the dealer or of a rival player with a big bet / bankroll.

Somebody who bets money on blackjack while utilizing poor strategy is the worst kind of jerk loser one can run into. Think about it:

A. Basic strategy is not rocket science…as its basic moniker implies, it only requires a fairly elemental level of math knowledge and reasoning skill. Not possessing this eliminates one from most professions, certifications, skilled jobs and positions. It likely means that one didn’t do squat in high school or went to college.

B. However, #1 by itself does not necessarily brand “every such person” a loser: maybe a congenital deficiency or accident is the reason, maybe such a person is a genius overly skilled in one area(artistically for example) to the detriment of others…to some degree this is probably true for the rest of us—we are all very inept / stupid at something in particular.
BBBUUUTTTT……one usually can still acquire / improve the data / skills one lacks…w/o even having to spend any money to boot!!! In the case of blackjack, for instance--- practically everything one needs is readily available on the internet…and for free!!!!!!!!
All one needs to do is Google for it!!!

C. So, someone who still remains a blackjack donk is the worst kind of inept, unmotivated loser…especially with money involved. It’s one thing to suck at say poker—now that requires a doctorate-type level of expertise; and unlike blackjack, the worst damage that bad hold em poker(the most predominant type) play can inflict on others is the occasional missed pot—but the cards and hands dealt are not altered in any way.
It’s also ok to suck for instance, at Monopoly, while still liking to play it frequently—one can excuse that away due to having a life / no spare time to devote to acquiring expertise at it…and most importantly, the money lost is only “play” money. But whoever loses money at 21 with incorrect play really, really deserves to not only be separated from their money, but also to be banned.

D. We may appear cruel in calling for the banning of such donks, but let’s use Nascar racing as an analogy: why not allow any / all to sign up and race—you, me, our grandparents, etc. regardless of skill level? Because we would cause all manner of accidents—and a resultant race winner might not be the most skilled driver, but rather the luckiest one who avoided the pileups…maybe even someone who caused some of them.
Same in a 21 tournament: say you’re playing at a table during a round where 2 or 3 advance…you’re utilizing correct strategy, but unfortunately find yourself facing a handful of morons who double down busting hands vs a small dealer upcard—usually @ max bets— yes, some will bust, but those that don’t will usually win and eliminate you.
Oftentimes that type of play can’t even be countered by sticking to minimum-sized bets because often, several at a table employ a strategy of minimum bets on every hand, then an all-in prayer @ the elimination hand(or just before it). So at best, the tourney becomes a coin flip.

2. EASTSIDE BOXING FORUMS--qualify as the most annoying, incompetent & arrogant entity we’ve encountered on the internet over the years. We stumbled upon a thread analyzing the upcoming Jones-Calzaghe fight, so we decided to register and post our analysis… that process took over 3 hours, after which we were unceremoniously & w/o any warning deleted from the forums.

They seem to be full of themselves--- like it’s a privilege to join them, and as well they’re paranoid.

The signup process demands way more information than that of other forums—birthdate, full name, location, email address, etc… and there’s a triple-guard security process in place: one has to answer a boxing question, fill in a captcha dialog prompt, and after passing all that—must wait for a moderator to approve the account.

All that wouldn’t be so bad if:

A. the forum software wasn’t buggy
B. there was a mod around to approve the account on the spot, and not hours later.
C. the folks running the place weren’t incompetent as well:

1. To start the negative ball rolling, they’ve attempted to look hip by picking a dark background w/ a font combination that makes the dialog inputs easy to miss / not see and the fonts hard to read / easy to misspell.
2. Then we got prompted to answer who won the so and so fight—except, they picked a pair that had fought more than once, each winning at least once… causing a predictable error to bounce the registration.
3. The same occurred with the captcha dialog—nowadays those are hard to answer correctly on the first try.
4. As well we missed a dialog box situated outside the main column / in an easy to miss location.
Now is where the process reaches Three Stooges levels:
5. As expected, the registration is bounced & one is forced to correct errors—but the software for this process behaves very badly:
6. Some of the fields—like desired PW, comfirm PW, etc.—get cleared…forcing a lot of unnecessary re-filling.
7. Even worse, the process ONLY prompts to correct one error at at time…resulting for us in 4-5 times having to bounce back & refill cleared fields & each of: missed form field, non-matching pw & email fields, “wrong” answer to question, wrong captcha dialog, etc.

Finally the registration was accepted and we were fed a message to monitor our inbox, as a mod would soon look over and approve our registration and send us a link to complete the validation process. The minutes stretched into hours as we constantly checked our Trash, Spam, & Inbox folders. In the intervening time we troubleshooted to ensure our mail server & their server were not having problems:

we logged into another email account and sent a successful test message… then we used the lost password link at their site—which is another convoluted, inept, and confusing multi-step process:

8. wait for a link to change pw to arrive in Inbox(it’s not immediate)
9. click link, arrive at site, be told to wait for a link with new PW to arrive in Inbox…again not immediately
10. sign in with new pw, go to settings, change pw to one of your choice.
11. receive erroneous message that PW is incorrect(even though the process actually accepted the new PW and succesfully logged you in)…this causes panic and prompts one to:
12. re-start process of new PW….which takes so long to respond, that one:
13. re-starts process again for new pw…fearing one either didn’t perform it correctly last time or whatever..
14. new pw for previous process arrives…one goes to forums and arrives just as new pw for last process request arrives--- which should we use?
15. during this whole time the date changed—we requested PW before midnite, but now it’s morning of new day…and guess what?
16. the pw is rejected for having expired “at least one day ago”
17. repeat pw process until successfully accepted.

So now, we’ve established that both servers can & have communicated with each other…& likely we now have to wait for a mod to deign to approve our app…which confers on us forum posting privileges.

3 hours after we initially commenced the registration process, we finally receive a validation message.

Before posting our analysis, we penned an initial satyrical, humoristic complaint—we began it and ended it with a courteous greeting, and labeled it Joe Pesci.

18. We then proceeded to post our thoughts on all the fights that day—a long and detailed posting….and as we click the Send button, the message is bounced back…and guess what—all the text had disappeared.
19. Now we have to recompose everything from memory….subsequent to that we get a prompt to log in….gee did we err when changing PW?
20. This triggers a whole new round of trying all the pw’s—the ones the forum sent, the ones we created ourselves… none work.
21. Finally we resign ourselves to request a new pw sent(along with the expected interminable wait)…whereupon we receive the message that our address is not in their database……

THE SATANIC MOD HAD, W/O ANY WARNING WHATSOEVER, DELETED EVERYTHING POSTED ALONG WITH OUR ENTIRE ACCOUNT!!!

Should we complain or request an explanation? We had tried to do already in order to hurry along the initial validation process…bbbuutttt the website will not accept correspondence until one registers and gets account validated!!!!!!!

They must think half the world is clamoring to join them—and will jump thru any hoops + wait as long as it takes—just for the privilege of posting in their community.

It takes a lot to get our goat up….if we EVER physically run into anybody involved in ownership or management of EAST SIDE BOXING FORUMS-- they will wish they weren’t born.

BOXING SATURDAY NOVEMBER 08, 2008

2008-11-08T03:20:00.001-05:00

Excluding the two title bouts, these fights were setups / positioning for future title fights for highly-regarded prospects or name veterans. They were fed opponents physically smaller(a couple moving up in weight in fact), slower & with very limited skills.

This fight day again demonstrated why boxing is so in trouble vis a vis MMA: in order to watch all these fights, a boxing fan—depending on geographic location—paid two or three times to watch them(if he/she was even lucky enough to have them offered in his/her location)…only to receive a bunch of very obvious mismatches & questionable judges’s decisions.
But again, apart from crappy internet feeds, most worldwide fans were not able to watch one of these cards, let alone all of them.
Promoters and broadcast networks complain of poor ratings for some of these cards—but how do they expect to build fan base and individual boxers’ names if folks can’t watch them?
Boxing promoters & network executives need to put themselves in a fan’s shoes: pay an exorbitant price, then pray that none of the outcomes are fixed/predetermined, all the bouts are not boring mismatches, all the combatants have taken their opponent seriously & trained properly.

On a separate note—we’ve always been impressed by how orderly & well-behaved German society is usually—and yesterday was a perfect example almost to the point of boredom:
the audience was very well-mannered and outdone by the fighters themselves, who respectfully acknowledged referee instructions, admonitions and commands. Contrast that to some of the boorish excesses we’ve been subjected to in this side of the pond: fans throwing full beer bottles into the ring, ring melees, referees attacked by fans & fighters… Just the way a referee is in total control of a fight overseas contrasts so greatly to our fights—where the fighters usually do as they please anyway—despite repeated referee admonition.

3:00PM (EST) Cruiserweight 12 rounds - Jako-Arena, Bamberg, Bayern, Germany - ARD
Otis Griffin +755 Over 9½ -130
Enad Licina -1175 Under 9½ +110
Griffin valiantly tried early, but he was really outclassed— & had suffered two KO’s in previous three fights.

4:00PM (EST) Heavyweight 10 rounds - York Hall, Bethnal Green, London, United Kingdom
Albert Sosnowski +575   Over 6½ +105
Danny Williams      -850   Under 6½ –125
Overhyped Williams needs to retire—age has brought on diminished reflexes, speed & chin.

4:00PM (EST) Middleweight 12 rounds - Jako-Arena, Bamberg, Bayern, Germany - PPV
Raul Marquez +850 Over 8½ -130
Arthur Abraham -1250 Under 8½ +110
Marquez totally overmatched here—much smaller & now pushing 40…. time to hang ‘em up(title contention-wise).

9:10~~10:30~~PM (EST) Light Welterweight 12 rounds - Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York - HBO PPV
Derrick Campos +2000 Over 8½ -130
Dmitriy Salita -4000 Under 8½ +110
Salita qualifies as the least-skilled undefeated boxer today—a must fade against any opponent of quality. He was lucky to escape with a win today against a club fighter of limited size, speed and technical skills. Salita’s defense is absolutely porous, his footwork & body movement are horrendous, and he does not utilize height advantage—in fact, just the opposite, often winding up crouched lower than his considerably shorter opponent… as well he leaves his head exposed a lot and does not keep his hands up high and together.
It’s not that he doesn’t possess the requisite physical attributes—he has very good balance, natural speed, coordination and flexibility—he just chooses to only fight in spurts and only move around at times—in between those times he’s a stationary statue that can be easily steered & trapped.
Questionable judges’ decision scores ran the gamut from giving every single round to Salita to giving Campos the nod in almost half the rounds.

9:45~~9:10~~PM (EST) Light Welterweight 10 rounds - Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York - HBO PPV
Emanuel Augustus +325 Over 9½ -440
Francisco Figueroa -400 Under 9½ +350
Figueroa is supposedly a hot prospect @20-2, being fed a veteran sparring partner to many, in order to pad his record and set up a contending fight down the road. But he didn’t impress much / show the requisite initiative. At best he won 2 of the 8 rounds, yet got the nod from 2 of the judges, who scored him winning 5 & 6 of the rounds.

10:30~~9:45~~PM (EST) Welterweight 10 rounds - Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York - HBO PPV
Ernest Johnson +1250
Zab Judah -2750
Actually fell asleep during this fight—Judah won easily…but against a very overmatched & inexperienced foe. Irregardless of inane commentator hype, we believe his best days are behind him…. he should retire. Never known for punching power, age will not suit him like a fine wine.

11:00PM (EST) Light Heavyweight 12 rounds - Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York - HBO PPV
Roy Jones Jr. +240 Over 9½ -340
Joe Calzaghe -280 Under 9½ +280
Jones’ downfall has been his ego—doing it his way w/o a top trainer or conditioner… all obviously crystalized for this fight: his corner looked totally inept & overwhelmed, the fight strategy was wrong…let Calzaghe punch himself out to exhaustion…that has yet to occur(when have we seen Calzaghe slow down late in a fight?)…and only served to facilitate the cut eye & an insurmountable points lead. As well, training-wise Jones should emulate Calzaghe & become a cardio punching machine—a must to counteract the forces of aging. To expect to be awarded rounds by judges on a counterpunching + lesser punch output style—basically on name & past accomplishments—defies logic.
An ominous sign was an interview a couple of days before the fight—where the subject of still needing to lose a bit of weight came up.

We don’t have any lock-type of selection today….only a “LEAN”—the nightcap…instead, it’s more of a value-flyer-fun / watch along with your punk friends kind of day.

Firstly, notice there’re ZERO evenly-regarded matchups out of the seven scheduled above.

Second—we have no clue who most of these fighters are.

Thirdly—bbbuuutttt…… we cannot go wrong blindly betting all underdogs:

A. Take the LEAST underlayed fight—Jones/Calzaghe… even if you fancy Calzaghe a lot, those odds are STILL “way too low to realistically make money in the long run”. You would need to correctly select 8 out of every 10 such matches to break into the black…and 9 out of 10 to make the beginnings of a good profit!!! Conversely—if you dutch and hedge, you can make a profit EVEN “if only one selection wins”… and will likely double your money at least! We recommend round robins of two…if just two selections win, you make a killing.

A. It’s unlikely that ALL 7 heavy favorites win AND/OR that NONE suffer a freak injury AND/OR that NONE get jobbed by the judges.

B. Notice how all but one of the faves are from other continents…where the local talent is supposedly / historically inferior….

C. We don’t know most of these scheduled fighters—but at those generous odds, who cares?

Here’s a suggested course of action:

1. Reserve 9 bet units, one for each fight, plus two spare.
2. Bet 1 on first fight.
3. IF you win, put away your starting 9 units + 1 of guaranteed profit and continue with the remaining 6½ plus onto step 5.
4. In case of loss, bet 1 unit each on the next two fights starting almost simultaneously.
5. If you won, same as step 4.
6. Once the two 4pm fights are over, you should have at least 6 units in hand worst case scenario. Whatever it is, divide into 6 amounts; and bet one portion on the fourth fight listed here.
7. If you won, redistribute winnings in hand among the unbet 5 portions; and bet one of them on the fifth fight.
8. If you lost, continue with one portion on the fifth fight.
9. Notice how, along the way, we have two more portions than the number of fights remaining—this is by design: we want to ensure of having a good amount to bet on the nightcap, where we have a ‘leaning’ opinion.
10. If you won, re-distribute among remaining 4 portions, and bet one on sixth.
11. If you lost, repeat step 8 for the sixth fight.
12. Now bet HALF of everything left on the nightcap: Roy Jones. EXCEPT IN THE CASE OF:
13. You haven’t booked a guaranteed profit + the starting units YET because: you “ lost the very first fight” BUT have won along the way…”book a guaranteed profit” before proceeding to the nightcap.

14. By now, even in worst-case scenario all six prior fights lost, you should have at least 3 units riding @ +240, resulting in a minimum profit of @ 1¼ units.

IIIIFFFFF Roy Jones is in shape & does not fade late, he may be able to control the entire fight—dancing circles around Calzaghe / making him look like a rank amateur… possibly even knocking him out. Conversely, he could also lose convincingly.

IN CONCLUSION

This is a night where we don’t have a strong opinion on anything—and are totally clueless on most—but WILL ‘make a profit’ / have fun watching this with our punk associates. The ONLY way we lose is if ALL the favorites cover / NONE of the underdogs win…and how likely is that?

NOW….this is the first ‘flyer’ bet we have EVER posted here… but still, we feel the probabilities are on our side.

UPDATE INTERMEZZO

One of the first three fights hit….you should now be @ step 6, with @ 12-3/4 units in hand. Keep in mind that 9 of those are your own money—so a little reassessing is in order:

How about putting away your 9 units AND BANK 1 UNIT GUARANTEED PROFIT FOR THE DAY?

The PRO argument for us is because of lack of expert knowledge / sure opinion of the latter 4 fights.

The CON argument would be the chance at a large score, since the odds on our remaining choices are extremely generous.

The MIDDLE ROAD works for us though—there is nothing wrong with hedging. As well, reality dictates banking profits along the way—this is true no matter what the investment vehicle: from art to securities to real estate to whatever….

SO….. we recommend you proceed on to step 6 with your remaining almost 3 units in hand.

You will be able to enjoy watching the remaining fights smug in the knowledge that you have a guaranteed profit even by going 1-6 for the day…. and can make much more with even just one more win.

See you in 3-4 hours… we can continue this constant reassessing after each fight…. as well we can(should) allow the expected highlights + late analysis for each upcoming fight to influence that process.

EPILOGUE

Not bad: we made money even though we lost the rest of the fights, including our Lean. We made money even though we had very little info to go on… and in spite of getting robbed in one of them—the 9:45 fight is a candidate for fix/setup of the year(look for post-commentary on each fight underneath its original listing above).

Now, what facilitated this? Two things:

1. The large odds—as we’ve stated before—blindly betting all +200 and above underdogs in boxing, ufc, horse matchups, etc. throws a profit.

2. Overhyped / underwhelming prospects in three of the bouts(counting the one bad decision and another one lucky enough to escape with the win).

ELECTION EVE

2008-11-03T23:08:00.001-05:00

We just took the Democratic Party To Win the US Presidential Election @ a rather paltry 9% projected return. It goes against our value mantra, but it’s pretty much a done deal… even the projected losing side has conceded in so many words.
Could’ve gotten as high as 60% a month or two ago… but we’re not fans of futures(unless they can be re-traded during the intervening time)—we lose a lot more by not being able to work that amount for such a long time… and then there’d’ve been other potential bet killers to deal with—say an unfortunate & unspeakable tragedy…

Besides the obvious money-making element, we feel our country needs this particular result very badly, as little by little we have become the USSR:

the Republicans have broken the trust of the American people, have made a shambles of the Constitution, and to top it all—have been generally inept. Of course, the Dumbocrats have not been blameless either—why they lost the past two general elections—neither side holds the exclusive patent on extremism & absurdity.

We’ll succintly leave it at that—we could expound for pages and pages on end, and this is not a political blog…although as wagerers we all have been particularly wronged by most politicians—particularly those on the Far Right.
We have nothing against core values and personal accountability—but not the trashing of Libertarianism and most of the principles our great country was founded on.

We’ll put up some horse plays tomorrow…. if any stand out that is….we’ll at least take a simulcast look in any case.
We’ll also soon start putting up some of our Forex & Options moves.

UFC 90 Wagering opportunities

2008-10-25T19:33:00.001-05:00

First of all:

whatever opponent we pick….and whether you take our advice and/or bet on your own--

“you will not go wrong if you blindly bet the + odds”. For, even though you may pick the better fighter, the judges may confound you, the ref can err, a fluke injury or ko can occur, etc. If you take too much prohibitive chalk, you will find yourself needing to win 2/3 to 3/4 of your decisions just to break into the black.

For tonight, we are keying on two fights:

1. Anderson Silva

Yes, the odds are prohibitive…and he’ll eventually lose one day… but not to this opponent. And with Silva, you won’t get any overconfidence or lack of training issues.

The odds are currently –675…. @ 14.82% profit.

2. Thiago Alves over Koschek +120, down from +130

We have no idea why Alves is rated underdog—his opponent cannot carry his jockstrap. However, Koscheck does have to style to muddle through the fight, keep it on the ground… and then who knows what the judges will decide….

SO….. we suggest the following betting plan:

1. Bet 2 Units on Silva AND

2. Bet most of the projected profit of above on Alves.

So, say your unit = 1K…. bet 2K on Silva and $300 on Alves. You may want to lower this last bet to say $250 to have a guaranteed profit / cover cost of sending bet funds to book, etc.

Other options:

Add Silva to all your parlays for the day.

IFFFF you like Silva opponent Cote, fight won’t go distance odds are –700.. a good way to have both fighters covered.

If you need some action bets at good value, Tyson Griffin @ +215 could be a possibility.

NOW, we are not touting him or betting this match…. but the value is obviously there.

EDIT: We neglected to specifically mention him, but the win by Junior Dos Santos @ +450 is a poster child / perfect example of our value mantra. Say you bet 5 fights @ 1K each… the payoff for this fight, @ 5.5K guarantees you a profit for the night! It won’t matter whether you lose all the rest / any other wins will just be gravy.

Boxing Mosley-Mayorga

2008-09-27T21:07:00.001-05:00

Add to your parlays:

Fight won’t go the distance –150 (67% profit).

IF you don’t have any parlays and wish to do standalone betting, then take:

UNDER 9½ ROUNDS +105

For those of you advanced bettors that will need to reverse / hedge / dutch, the reverse play is:

Mosley Wins by Unanimous Decision(split decision win will lose your bet!!!) +170

OR:

Fight GOES the Distance +130

EDIT: Almost got middled out--

the fight almost went the distance…. and one dweeb judge had Mayorga leading.

Actually, we don’t agree with the decision to rule the fight ended @ 2:59(one second before the end): the fight ended and Mayorga knockout was not saved by final bell… the fight WENT the distance AND Mayorga was knocked out.
So, some bettors should’ve been able to collect on both sides, depending on what exact props they chose:

Fight ends in KO

Fight goes the Distance

should both be winners.

Simulcast Picks of the Day Saturday September 20, 2008

2008-09-19T17:41:00.001-05:00

PHA PHILADELPHIA PARK RACE 5

#5-- Should go wire to wire. It will be tough extracting value from exactas though-- it's hard to separate the other experienced runners 2, 3, 8...and they won't offer much odds value. If you have to play exactas, set the combo with the likely favorite, 8, as a hedge(breakeven)...and as well add the debuter #7 PLUS any other debuter whose odds are longer than #7.

A better option might be DD(w/ 4th race) or Pik3... although we won't be handicapping those other relevant races.

EDIT: We weren't around during racing, but the odds gods hopefully shone on you... esp. if you followed betting advice of next race-- which should be de rigeur ALWAYS... favor larger odds and eliminate or downgrade or use only as saver underlayed odds.
These are the odds of the entrants we mentioned: 11, 8, 6, 3, 8/5
The candidates turned out to not be as underlayed as we figured.

So, however you bet this race, you should've made money: exacta paid $155, TRI paid $1,210

BEL BELMONT PARK RACE 9 "GRADE II GALLANT BLOOM HANDICAP"

Severely underlayed & vulnerable bridgejumper-type favorite here:

Indian Blessing-- three reasons:

1. Figs have not improved this year(going by our numbers), while those of all its foes are currently ascending. This is a classic example of a precocious horse that early on beats up on foes that take longer to mature... to boot vs small & perhaps mediocre fields, usually while having its way on early uncontested leads. This type usually gets its comeuppance the second half of the year, when meeting foes that are catching up & passing in terms of growth... and its own growth(vertical) has topped out.

2. Race shape tilts toward chaos-- most of these can set the pace or rate...so maybe nobody wants the lead, someone steals it, most burn each other out in a duel...who knows....

3. There is very little incentive both race purse and future breeding value wise in a Grade II race for a multiple Grade I(& Breeders Cup) winner... having already achieved that status @ both routes and sprints.

Who to bet then? Just invert the Morning Line:

Porte Bonheur-- should offer outstanding value @ 12-1... with ascending numbers in spite of trip problems. Want another reason, hidden at that? Our figs rate her tops in here.

Zada Belle-- mini-me version of above @ 6-1

Elope / Sugar Swirl-- one of these could steal a lone lead...former holds much better value @ 8-1(as well is so lightly-raced that it could be anything / has the most upside potential)... latter is underlayed second ML fave.

In conclusion, we rate them in this order:

Porte Bonheur & Elope equally.

then

Zada Belle

then the two underlayed faves.

EDIT: 4 horse field and two encounter trip problems...

One scratch...one contender became underlayed...blah race to bet. Although if you did, the previous race should've put you firmly in the black for the day.

Simulcast Picks of the Day Tuesday September 2, 2008

2008-09-02T09:45:00.001-05:00

PHA PHILADELPHIA PARK RACE 9

The winner will be one of the following three:

#5 The most likely... & to boot not undervalued. Possesses Early Pace(2½ lengths), Turn Time(2 lengths), Closing Fraction(1½ lengths) & Final Time(7 lengths) superior to all here.

#2 Could be anything / won with plenty of reserves left... but will get an acid test vs #5 here. Still, a bet should carry value-- judging by 6-1 Morning Line.

#1 Another one that should move forward from impressive debut, overcoming traffic problems to post decent time, nonwithstanding claming class rank. Although it is the most likely to pick up the pieces should the early pace collapse, it may yet again encounter traffic problems while stuck down on the fence... and will likely by underlayed...as ML fave.

The rest are really up against it here:

#6 Second career race, first time lasix & the troubled debut-- broke sluggishly, then rushed to set the pace while wide-- signal a possible impending fig improvement...or maybe not: could be strung out 4-wide in a 5-horse pace duel while will not getting a clear lead, & to boot having to run a longer distance of ground. And don't expect a great odds premium, as Morning Line fourth fave. At best you could do a reverse Exacta Saver on top of main contenders, but even then, only if the prices are large enough.

#4 Yes, it's a closer in a race chock full of early speed...and it sports improving pace and final numbers...but all that still leaves it 15 lengths behind the projected final time here. And will offer poor value as the ML third fave.

#3 Won despite a not so smooth start, but that bottom maiden claiming rank is very telling: Early Pace was some 10 lengths slower than what it could face here... Final Time almost 20 lengths slower than the projected final time here.

#7 Even worse than above...can't even win yet at bottom maiden claiming level.

Depending on how the earlier races run, scratches, etc. we will decide on either # 6 or 4 for a LAY bet... as well as any possible exotics bets.

EDIT: no one unduly favored... exacta box of win contenders returns almost a $5- equivalent payoff on total investment.

2008 Del Mar Handicapping Challenge Forty-second & Labor Day

2008-09-01T19:53:00.001-05:00

Next to last day.

#7 second pick.

#8 first pick.

Not our day though-- #8 drops from 30 to 14.... #7 goes from 20 to 40

And both numbnuts go up to contest the pace...@ 7 furlongs on synthetic surface... unbefriggin' lievable.

Simulcast Picks of the Day Monday September 1, Labor Day 2008

2008-09-01T10:04:00.001-05:00

SAR SARATOGA RACE 10 GRADE 1 HOPEFUL STAKES

WIN CANDIDATES

#8 CRIBNOTE----------------- Race shapes up for him to mow them all down late; may be the best two year old this year. And at larger odds than main foe, just might be the best bet of the season.

#4 MUNNINGS---------------- Talented speedster eligible to take them all the way.

SAVERS / LOWER SPOTS

#6 MEDAGLIA D'ONORE---- Offers fantastic value, bbuuttttt...MUST fulfill the following three:
clean start, clean trip, continue fig improvement.

#1 BREAK WATER EDISON-- Small though unlikely chance at the win IFFF several things fall into place:
it continues improvement of both pace and final figs, it's able to stalk pace closest of all from the rail, speedsters tire each other out, and #8 encounters trip trouble.
It won't offer much value though, as third ML fave.

BOTTOM SLOTS EXOTICS

#3 COGNITO------------------ MUST rate / not get involved in pace duel to have a chance...as well as get a trouble-free ride.

#2 DESERT PARTY----------- MUST continue improvement to have a chance at the bottom slot of Tri / Super. Won't offer much value either, as fourth ML fave.

#5 VINEYARD HAVEN------- Not a whale lot to recommend, but could surprise a bit back on dry footing-- and don't often get the chance at double digit odds with Trainer Frankel.

LAY(lose / tossout) CANDIDATES

#7 NOTONTHESAMEPAGE-- You can safely eliminate this underlayed horse from Win consideration. It won't get a clear open lead here, has to race an extra furlong, and its other pace competitor, #4, has faster Pace & Final numbers despite hitting the gate in its debut; as well factor in its foe's expected improvement in second career race.
#7 will be more cut out for routes with easier early paces next year.
Its only chance to even pick up a minor award here is if it can rate just off #7 @ a slower early pace-- it's removing blinkers in preparation for that...it will also need #7 to 'cooperate' w/ either a bad break or by not sending too fast early in this long sprint.

THE WAY TO BET THIS RACE FOR A POSSIBLY LARGE PAYOFF

1. Go to a Betting Exchange / Trade and LAY #7-- should pay somewhere between $2.25 - 2.45. Use that projected payoff to:

2. Play Supers, but structure tickets to avoid more than two single-digit entrants in any one combo. Possible examples:

Firstly, bet 1K Lay 7...this will give you a coupla hundred. Secondly, with our main choice, let's make an exception & cover most possible combos underneath it, irregardless of odds.

8 with
4/6/1 with
3/5///4/6/1 with
2///3/5///4/6/1
48 combos @ triple per combo than the bottom 2 tickets

4 with
8 with
1/2/3/5/6 with
1/2/3/5/6
20 combos @ double per combo than the bottom 2

1 with
8 with
3/4/5/6 with
2///3/4/5/6
16 combos

6 with
8 with
1/2/3/4/5 with
1/2/3/4/5///7
25 combos

Field size makes this bet kinda low in value-- if any longshot gets scratched, then a better bet might be:

3. Doubles / Pick Whatevers using 8 & 4...6 as small Bud Longshot or Saver.

THE WAY TO BET THIS RACE FOR A SURE PAYOFF

Check back near post time-- there are several options, depending on odds & pool sizes:

1. ~~LAY 7~~ No decent price offered. We almost posted a substitute choice for LAY: #1... but that post position is awfully dangerous to LAY.

2. 8 to Show or Place...maybe even a dutch one of those pools and Win. This is what made the most sense: 2 Units Show & 1 Unit Win @ Exchange slightly over 9/2 odds. Horse didn't win, but you still got an equivalent payoff on your total investment of almost $2.47.

3. ~~Win Dutch 4 & 8...that's best done at an Exchange-- where there's enough odds to also cover savers on 6 & 1.~~ Not enough profit to cover everything.

4. 8 win Dutched to Reverse Exacta 4/8. Quiniella would be ideal...but stupid NYRA offers that only on some races. Woulda lost...and didn't compare safety-wise with option 2.

EDIT: So Frankel jumps all the way up beyond our 3rd & 4th place slots. To add insult to injury, @ a paltry 9-1. Tell us that the vet wasn't juicing today and that the inner circle wasn't tipped off. What a crock. As for our heroes, another couple of crocks:

#5 was making a winning move, but blew the turn to wind up in the parking lot...still recomposed itself to re-pass all others again-- except for the winner.
#4 repeated gate problem...was unhurried early, then gradually closed while very wide to finish third.
And, #'s 1/2/3 played bumper cars at the start...par for the course at this racing age.

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

LAD LOUISIANA DOWNS RACE 8

#3-- Lays over this field.

#4-- Second Best.

#'s 6, 5, 1-- Fight it out for lesser spoils.

#7-- Would have to improve immensely to contend here...on the other hand, should offer a good price.

#'s 2 ~~& 8--~~ ~~can not only be tossed out, but are as well severely underlayed~~.

#8 scratched...pace scenario a bit cloudy-- #2 has very inferior pace fig, but is only confirmed pacesetter. #3 @ 1/5. PASSSSSSS

EDIT: wasn't expecting to see #'s 3 & 4 duel for the early lead.

And actually, there was money to be made with this triple-- esp. since 5/6/1 were longshots-- coulda done something like this:

main ticket-- 3 with 4 with 6/5/1, then reverse for a lesser amount the place and show positions.
saver ticket-- 4 with 3 with 6/5/1. Only 9 combos total.

DMR DEL MAR RACE 5 I'M SMOKIN 100k STAKES

Wide open race...a lot will depend on riding tactics and who gets a good trip.

WIN CONTENDERS

#7--- eligible to take it all...decent price too. Lordgivemealift could turn out to be a nice horse...could also get cooked in a pace duel here.

#9--- very dangerous at a price. Negatives: needs a fast pace of race to do the most damage, & may not get it here.

#2--- ditto above, except as an underlayed ML favorite.

LOWER SLOTS & WIN SAVERS

These are a notch below above, but since none of those are cinch, then the value odds among these, if any, can be bet in the top slot:

#8--- a revert to closing style makes it dangerous, to say nothing of top jock Bejarano jumping aboard. Won't offer exceptional value though.

#11-- won debut despite traffic problems, expect a much improved fig for its second career race.

#1--- can get a piece stalking from the rail. Today's Pace of Race may be too quick to its liking though...and won't offer much value.

BOTTOM SLOTS EXOTICS

#3--- won wide-trip debut. May get a nice(or horrible) trip today from that inside post. Expect an improved fig in second career race, and at a better price than:

#10-- won wide-trip debut, but the trip today may wind up even wider. Nevertheless, expect an improved fig today.

EDIT: Charge of the Light Brigade finish--two underlays had to take first two spots: 2/1/10/11

DMR DEL MAR RACE 9 GRADE 1 DEBUTANTE STAKES

There doesn't seem to be a dominant & able pacesetter here. As such, the race can be stolen by someone alert, or can descend into chaos.

TOP 5 CONTENDERS:

11/8/5/7/3

EXOTICS LOWER SLOTS

10/2/6/4

longshots in red

~~Okie dokie-- Exactas:~~

~~Box 11/8/5/7 for 4 times as much per combo as the LAST sequence.~~

~~Key Wheel 11/8/5/7 OVER 10/6/4 for 2 times as much per combo(half of above sequence)~~

Reverse Key Wheel 10/6/4 OVER 11/8/5/7 for half again as much(quarter of first sequence) plus one time 5 over 2.
37 total combos.

Hold off on above exactas for a bit....

EDIT: We left and got back too late. Good thing, as two of our main contenders, 7 & 8, went up to contest/press early lead. We need to hold a seminar for jockeys out there: 7 furlongs on synthetic, you hold back and move late...especially if your horse is not a pacesetter by nature. Crappy, crappy meet with artificially high purses & subpar racing.

~~EVD EVANGELINE DOWNS RACE 9 LAFAYETTE 100k STAKES~~

~~#'s 4 & 3 tower over this field-- two horse-race.~~

~~The rest, in order of preference: #'s 7, 8, 2~~

Racing canceled.

MTH MONMOUTH PARK RACE 9

~~Look for a pace meltdown here. Toss out #'s 1/5/2. Exacta Box #'s 3/6/4~~

2 Scratched... now things get dicey early-pace wise: 6 will likely elect to stalk/press, but 1 & 5 are inconsistent pacesetters. We don't wanna chance a lone frontrunner beating us. Anyhow, there's no value here with our main contenders-- 3 & 6...nor with anyone else for that matter. We're tempted to LAY 1...very undervalued...but: PASS

EDIT 2: actually, let's hook #3 back and forth in exactas with ALL...put a bit more on combos with #6, less with #1.

EDIT 3: and those of you who followed our original advice quadrupled your exacta investment... had the triple too.
They made the garbage #1 favored...but those odds weren't reflected in Exchanges-- a very underwhelming $2.90 LAY price offered(should be more like $3.40-3.80)

RP REMINGTON PARK RACE 7

~~#3 Looks strong here-- hook it in exactas with 4 & 1~~. 7/2 all way down to 3/5... no value-- PASS.

#2 Is a tossout and LAY candidate.

EDIT: #'s 4 & 1 unexpectedly cooked each other in an early duel.

RP REMINGTON PARK RACE 9 CLEVER TREVOR 50k STAKES

#3 Looks very strong here.

#2 ML fave looks very underlayed.

#1 We like it better than #2, and carries a lot more value.

#5 Has a chance if pace melts down.

#'s 4 ~~& 6--~~ Projected Pace of Race looks to hot for them-- they'll likely bring up the rear.

SUGGESTED EXACTA TICKETS:

#'s 3 & 5 hooked back and forth with each other and over 1 & 2.

EDIT: Exacta 5/3(4-1 & Even Money) pays whopping $34

2008 Del Mar Handicapping Challenge Forty-first Day Sunday August 31

2008-08-31T20:24:00.001-05:00

The ignomity of it all: we take #1 @25-1...& a good chance of odds drifting to cap...only to watch them plummet to half that. To boot we don't get the stalking trip we figured on, but a determined effort for early lead...@ 9 furlong distance. To add further insult, someone we liked-- though not at the odds-- #4, wins @ just a couple points less: 10-1.

What a crappy Del Mar season.

2008 Del Mar Handicapping Challenge Fortieth Day Saturday August 30

2008-08-30T20:29:00.001-05:00

Yucchhh...........

Simulcast Picks of the Day Saturday August 30, 2008

2008-08-30T10:46:00.001-05:00

PHA-- PHILADELPHIA RACE 6

Race where no one has run to par. Additionally, the odds-on favorite is vulnerable and the obvious contenders sport suspicious $$ drops and/or layoffs.

1-- Its pace figure is inferior to #8...thus will not get an open breather while having to run faster early...this is a very long sprint...you do the math.

So who is eligible to win then?

6-- Its lone 2yo race, despite slow break, is alone enough to contend-- w/o even taking into account a better break, expected improvement as a 3yo, etc. HOWEVER, the long break and steep class drop, w/o at least one more try at the MSW level-- or even a higher claiming price-- especially after attracting substantial handle in its debut-- makes it a tossout... to boot, it likely won't even command value odds.

8-- We hate to see such a long layoff after a sudden, improved effort. Still, it's an obvious contender. However, should something be wrong with it or doesn't break well, #1 could then be left alone on an open lead.

7-- Eligible to pick up the pieces of the pace duel, expect improved effort after an entire ½ year of races on the wrong surface and/or with trip mishaps.

2 and 5-- Very, very interesting debuters. Will carry tons of odds value in a race with subpar foes(ergo can still win the race with a BELOW average effort). VERY LIVE, do NOT leave out of your tickets.

3-- Debuter with supbpar connections and pedigree leaning towards late development and route racing.

4-- Not a lot to recommend numbers-wise...will carry a price though... doesn't need to improve by that much to have a chance here against these numbnuts.

EDIT: There's your $600 Triple, folks-- 7/8/2 ... 7 went off at decent 7½-1.

CRC-- CALDER RACE 5

Race boils down to two possibilities:

A. Which pacesetter imposes its will: 1 or 4...and whether a possible multi-horse duel cooks them enough for:

~~B. Whether one of these closers: 2 or 8 will have a good, clean enough trip to run them down.~~

Dang, scratches leave field down to these four: 1(Even)/3(20-1)/4(3-5)/5(8-1)

MTH-- MONMOUTH PICK THREE RACES 6/7/8

RACE 6: 2(4-1)/1(3-1)/7(6-1) ....(odds of main tossouts: 9-5, 5, 6)
RACE 7: 2(4-1)/3(9/2) ............(odds of main tossouts: 3, 7-2, 6, 6)
RACE 8: 4(3-1)/7(12-1)/2(15-1) W/ savers 1(9-5)/3(10-1)/6(4-1)/5(5-2)

TICKETS--

MAIN ONE:
2/1/7 with
2/3 with
4/7/2
18 combos

BACKUP--
btw we're gonna include #7 in the sixth...should be backup, but its odds will be ok.
2/1/7 with
2/3 with
1/3/6/5
24 combos

IFFF you wish to have more money, in this backup, on the higher-odds entrants, then create:

BACKUP2--

2/1/7 with
2/3 with
3/6
12 combos

Since we didn't pare anyone off first coupla races, the main ticket will need to have substantially more money per combo bet.

EDIT: 6th race--give bonus points to #1, none to #7.

Those of you real afraid of #4, can hedge your Pk3 tickets by keying it on top of exactas here w/ main contenders: 4 over 2/1/7 Do it Dutch style, this way you get a guaranteed return of 3-1

EDIT2: We could've also just included #4 in our Pk3's.... but this way we'd be more likely to cash something in case someone surprises in the following legs.

MTH-- MONMOUTH RACE 6

Looks like a possible pace meltdown-- although that's not a guarantee. Horses' connections can read the DRF...sometimes you get most holding back, allowing one or two to steal away early.
Who we like in order:

2-- Look for a fig jump from troubled debut. As long as it gets a clean trip / not buried inside.

1-- Whichever one of these two that gets the better trip should win here.

7-- May be able to stalk duelers, take over, and hold closers off...esp. if they encounter traffic problems.

5-- Unlikely...Actually a LAY candidate. ALTHOUGH its new connections may have something up their sleeves.

4-- Actually possesses best pace and final numbers...to boot it can rate a bit. BUT it's infected with seconditis & will be severely underlayed. At best it should be used in bottom slots only & NOT under other favored entrants. LAY candidate.

~~3-- Still more unlikely. Loses rider Cotto to boot.~~

In conclusion, we would only use 2/1/7 on top. Bet a little extra on 2...maybe on 7 as well if odds are generous...bet even less on 1 if odds wind up very low.

EDIT: #'s 1 & 2 bumped each other at the start, trailed the field early.

MTH-- MONMOUTH RACE 7

Two possible winners-- either 2 holds them all off OR 3 does it from behind.

The other two highly-regarded contenders, 1 & 7 are only lower slots contenders.... and will be severely underlayed if vying for favoritism.

EDIT: #'s 2 & 3 went off @ 5/2 & 7/2. However, at an exchange you got 9/2 & 5. So, if you did a Win Dutch-- at the track your return would be just over Double, while @ exchange you'd almost Triple your starting bet.

EDIT2: #'s 3 & 4 bothered each other at the start, 3 trailed the field early, finished a fairly close fourth..

MTH-- MONMOUTH RACE 8

4-- Might coast all the way on an unchallenged early lead.

7-- Has been saddled all of 2008 with races that don't demonstrate its true capabilities: from initial two off a long layoff to wrong surface / distance to troubled and/or vs bias trips. Great value.

5-- An enigma inside a riddle wrapped in a question-- at times looks like a future star, at times throws up mediocre figs without a seeming excuse. Low ML odds & Bravo aboard guarantee little value. Let's leave this one for underneath slots .... possibly savers on top, but only hooked w/ longshots. NOW....if the public lets this horse get off 4-1 or over, then it's another story.

1-- Capable of taking it all, but as ML fave, let's relegate to underneath slots & on top of longshots....just like 5.

6-- Has been crying for a race with a fast early pace in order to do the most damage. Will offer better value than 5 & 1...although not too much more.

2-- Ditto above, EXCEPT it will sport very, very juicy odds. Deserves inclusion in top slot just on that alone.

3-- Mini-me version of above 2. Among the closers, it will all depend on who gets best trip.

EDIT: #4 stumbled at the start, rushed to the lead, then faded to just lose the show photo.
#6 much the best despite 4 wide trip.
#1 had perfect stalking trip on the fence, which opened up for it to scoot thru... still couldn't get the job done.

MTH-- MONMOUTH PICK THREE RACES 6/7/8

TICKETS--

MAIN ONE:
2/1/7 with
2/3 with
4/7/2
18 combos

BACKUP--
btw we're gonna include #7 in the sixth...should be backup, but its odds will be ok.
2/1/7 with
2/3 with
1/3/6/5
24 combos

IFFF you wish to have more money, in this backup, on the higher-odds entrants, then create:

BACKUP2--

2/1/7 with
2/3 with
3/6
12 combos

Since we didn't pare anyone off first coupla races, the main ticket will need to have substantially more money per combo bet.

EDIT: 6th race-- give bonus points to #1, none to #7.

Those of you real afraid of #4, can hedge your Pk3 tickets by keying it on top of exactas here w/ main contenders: 4 over 2/1/7 Do it Dutch style, this way you get a guaranteed triple return

EDIT2: We could've also just included #4 in our Pk3's.... but this way we'd be more likely to cash something in case someone surprises in the following legs.

DMR-- DELMAR RACE 7

Of the non-debuting horses, we rate them in the following order:

12-- stands out over the rest: has the best fig by 3 lengths... and as well early pace fig by 5 lengths.

8-- barely edges out 7, and at much better odds
7-- then there's a 4 length gap to the next two, who also sport worse early pace numbers.

6-- edges out 5 but lags way farther back early.
5-- be advised, though, that:

NONE of the experienced runners can run to race pars, so.... inspect very minutiously (don't know why the spellchecker is flagging this word) the debuters!!!

EDIT: Annnddd bingo! Firster #4 wins, and coming in second-- #5...the best value of the five entrants with a race under their belt. #12 was done in by the post, being unusually close to early pace and strange, meandering trip... none of the debuters went for the lead, forcing horses more accustomed to closing to take over that chore.

EVD-- EVANGELINE DOWNS RACE 9

6-- Stands out. The rest fight it out for second, they are--- in order:

1-- Poor value, as its entrymate has no chance, although looks second best.

Tossouts: 1A & 2 The latter is a LAY candidate.

EDIT: Pretty much went as prognosticated. Of note, #2 seemed to be making a threatening move but shuffled back in the stretch....although it's debatable whether it was going to reach the leader. Paid $2.40 Lay price btw.

2008 Del Mar Handicapping Challenge Thirty-ninth Day Friday August 29

2008-08-29T20:43:00.001-05:00

No choice(mathematically-speaking re the contest) but to stick to #'s 2 & 3... at this juncture we have to disregard likely winner for highest price, no matter how hopelessly outclassed-- the first four finishers just towered over the rest figs-wise.

2008 Del Mar Handicapping Challenge Thirty-eighth Day Thursday August 28

2008-08-29T20:39:00.001-05:00

We went down in flames with the only cap horse here, #10. We actually liked as well the win & place horses, but at this stage of the contest their odds would not do it for us. We did NOT like our choice...but really have no choice this late in the contest: we need cap winners.

#7, the winner, was let go off much higher than its 6-1 Morning Line, but at odds in the teens, would really not help us.

The place horse, #4, was a longshot that we felt had a much better chance than #10... but at odds in the low 20's....

Simulcast Picks of the Day Thursday August 28, 2008

2008-08-28T07:51:00.001-05:00

CRC CALDER RACE 1

This race does not have a reliable, committed AND dominant pacesetter...could wind up as a fast multi-horse early duel, the opposite-- tentative, slow early bunchup, or even possibly a stolen, lone lead by anyone.

It does not seemingly offer much single-race Exotics value... maybe DD / Pk3 is doable depending on the contender odds in those later races.

Possible Winners:

6-- Looks like a righteous favorite: is lightly-raced w/ ascending pace & final figs, something you rarely see in low claiming ranks. To boot, it's coming off a not so great trip and gets a rider switch to the Jerry Bailey of Calder. Top Contender. Don't be too enthused, though: it's ML fave & there are other contenders.

8-- Similar profile to above, only to a lesser extent. It's coming off two brutal trips & getting a rider switch to an experienced journeyman. The only chink in its armor is that it hasn't YET posted a decent turn time...this could be a function of bad trips & rides so far-- or a permanent defect. The pp draw is not great BUT it affords it a chance to track & sit just off its main rival. Win contender if some misfortune befalls #6, although note it's listed as ML second fave / possible race co-fave.

2-- Faced a much superior Pace of Race last time, than any of these are used to...possible...maybe at a price.

4-- Could wind up as lone pacesetter in the clear, HOWEVER-- early pace number is inferior. Not likely, but if offered at sufficiently high odds, could merit a Win slot saver in your exotics.

1-- Rail horses with a closing or pressing style always pose a dilemma-- either they get perfect or brutal trip...esp. depending on whether you didn't bet them, LOL.
Last out it posted a decent number in spite of practically losing all chance at the start, then being rushed to the lead. However, it will offer very poor value as ML third fave while being piloted by inferior jock.

The following horse, although NOT a win candidate, is very reliable, and usually posts its usual fig no matter how fast / slow the Pace of Race:

~~3-- Merits inclusion in the lower slots of your exotics.~~

Tossouts:

7-- inferior figs and seemingly poor form to boot. Although, any large longshot, as this horse projects to be-- is excusable to insert in bottom of exotics slots. Anyone can clunk up in the money, after the main contenders get done beating each other up... it doesn't hurt to include large longshots in the lower slots for $1.

LAYS:

for those of you with access to Betting Exchanges-- we will look to lay either 1 ~~or 3...preferrably 3 IFFFFF offered @ playable odds.~~

EDIT: 1 offered @ $2.37....we passed...mainly because it was not our first choice(for throwout), & the more others get scratched, the less the chances of losing(the opposite of when Backing: betting a horse to win). As well post position 1 is very dangerous to Lay, no matter how bad the contender-- esp. one not part of the early pace. In fact, we only like to Lay someone on the rail that we can safely toss out as a projected disadvantaged frontrunner.

And one more reason: the very first race of the day is good to watch in case of any unexpected bias.. weather patterns can greatly influence track maintenance.

Of course, if there was plenty of betting value, we might've been tempted to make an exception-- but this race just screamed PASS.

IN MONEY BETS:

6 could be a candidate, depending on whether race betting develops into multiple horses vying for favorite-- as opposed to one heavy favorite. Win odds and lower pool handles will decide this come post time.

EDIT: 1/5

We were getting ready to suggest Win Dutching 6 & 2... then the odds plunged to the bottom on the fave.

Race unfolded(& ended) pretty much as thought. Don't know what the rider of #1 was doing attending such a multi-horse pace duel.

CRC CALDER RACE 4

Quick, concise analysis-- we're passing this race.

1-- Looks like top contender. MUST get clean trip...not crazy about the jock.

6-- May be able to clear early... a better alternative than getting hung outside its main two early rivals.

4-- May be the best pacesetter...has faced much better while getting outrun late...may also finish up the track.

5-- Looks like a tossout: vulnerable to today's Pace of Race...very underlayed.

Other possibles, should 1 encounter trouble & speedsters get cooked by speed duel:

8 & 3

The riders of #'s 6 & 5 must've been intimidated & overly impressed by the odds of the favorite: #6, who can set the fastest fractions of any here, backed off fairly slow fractions, allowing the fave a clear early lead...while #5 took way back to oblivion. ANNNddddd, for the second time today we notice Segundo Caballero too close to the early pace while on a closer drawn on the rail-- only this time his mount fell back a bit & re-rallied.

CRC CALDER RACE 7

Race looks like a tossup. Here's two you might throw OUT:

4-- which is also a prime LAY candidate.

8-- we're not crazy about...although it's hard to get odds like those on Lopez.

We backed off Laying #4 because #3, the only other pace rival, sometimes does not race on the lead-- exactly what happened today, allowing #4 to set a lone lead and just last at the wire.

CRC CALDER RACE 8

3 looks strongest here: superior turn time & early pace...dropping from higher level.... Pascacio Lopez aboard.

1 looks like a LAY candidate.

The winner, #6, took a ton of money in debut for 50K tag-- 9/5...and again took a ton on the drop here to 12½K-- 5/2...and aired. Our choice, #3, needs to learn to relax: stumbled out of the gate and then rushed up to the lead-- only to have to be snatched up to prevent running up on the heels of the frontrunners...effectively dooming its chances.

DMR DELMAR RACE 4

This is who we like, in order...notice the gaps / groupings(ML in parentheses to ensure odds / value guide our betting here):

#11(6-1)

#4(30-1)

#10(5-2)

_______

#3(3-1)

_______

#2(5-1)

#6(6-1)

_________

#9(20-1)

#1(12-1)

#8(15-1)

You can base your Super ticket on those... for example:

#11(6-1) / #4(30-1) / #10(5-2)

with

#3(3-1) / #11(6-1) / #4(30-1) / #10(5-2)

with

#2(5-1) / #6(6-1) / #3(3-1) / #11(6-1) / #4(30-1) / #10(5-2)

with

#9(20-1) / #1(12-1) / #8(15-1) / #2(5-1) / #6(6-1) / #3(3-1) / #11(6-1) / #4(30-1) / #10(5-2)

= 216 Combos.

Get into the habit of writing ML & actual odds next to saddlecloth number... and as the actual odds diverge, you can move up or down a notch or two(or even eliminate) the affected selectees, as appropriate.
That helps you save money / pare down a ticket when necessary, as well as catch / reward higher payoffs.

2008 Del Mar Handicapping Challenge Thirty-seventh Day Wednesday August 27

2008-08-27T22:05:00.001-05:00

Only short odds today....pass.

Simulcast Picks of the Day Wednesday August 27, 2008

2008-08-27T14:54:00.001-05:00

SARATOGA RACE 2

The only thing to report here is that #7 looks like very poor value(2nd ML) & will likely be overwhelmed by a faster than accustomed to Pace of Race. We recommend that you leave it out of your exotics tickets, and those of you with access to an Exchange, should LAY(bet that it will NOT Win) it.

Edit: paid a bit over $2.60... a very decent Lay price.

MONMOUTH RACE 3

Win Candidates:

Race looks like a 'possible' race meltdown, favoring a closer.

Who we like, in order:

3-- Will likely lay closest to frontrunners, and be able to take over late.

1-- This pacesetter has the early numbers to wire the field. It is NOT a likely winner though, in light of negative class drops. HOWEVER, one must respect a possible loose frontrunner at Monmouth...to boot at a price. You just never know-- the jocks on the other frontrunners may decide to allow it to scamper alone, figuring it is physically compromised. This will be a win or finish last type, so what you can do is hook it up in Exotics exclusively in the win slot.

2-- the best pacesetter...improving and rateable...again, speed always dangerous at this oval.

4-- backup closer, in case #3 suffers some trip misfortune(bottled up inside for one) or physical ailment(headache? lol) today. We don't like it that much, as it seems to be infected with seconditis, but should be played because the early pace will likely collapse.

5-- second best pacesetter. Yes, it's a bit down the contender line, but a case can be made for a win: firstly-- it's improving, second-- there's a good chance #1 won't run a lick today, and should #2 suffer some start mishap(look at the head-on start video-- these animals often break like bumper cars), it would leave it on a lone lead.

Eliminations:

#6 is a false favorite-- will have to run faster early than accustomed to AND will not get the luxury of an open lead like in the past. We recommend you toss it. Lay it in Exchanges.

So, let odds be your guide in how you bet this race. For example, make exacta tickets thusly:

1 over 3 & 4. IF it wins, it will have run the other speedsters into the ground, so toss them.

3 over 4, 2 & 5.

4 over 3, 2 & 5.

5 over 3 & 4.

You can play a little more on the lesser-paying combos AND/OR less on tickets including 1 & 5, as those are more saver / backup AND will be longshots anyhow.

Edit: Exacta paid $47+

Lay paid a whopping $3. If you parlayed the first two lays, you've almost doubled your money

MONMOUTH RACE 5

# 3 offers the best value here....#1 can be totally tossed out.
Who can finish second? Who knows-- #5 is wildly inconsistent not only in final times, but in the type of early pace it sets...world-class one race, very slow the next. #6 will be facing a much tougher pace today AND W/O being clear on the lead.

Edit: #1 late scratched. Too bad, we were thinking of a Place bet, with the Lay Parlay money, on the winner #3.
BTW we rarely bet Win: we stick to extremes-- either Show / Place or Exactas / Tris / Supers.

MONMOUTH RACE 8

Not a lot of value here.

#5-- can wire these... is it ready off such a long layoff?

#6-- has back numbers to win here...however, seems to be infected with seconditis... BUT attracts Lezcano aboard...hhmmmm let odds be your final judge.

#3-- can win or finish last. Seems to be going down the class ladder...Lezcano jumps off.

#7-- has a chance, esp. because NONE of the above can be blindly relied upon.

The next one has a chance at the bottom slots ONLY:

The others are hopelessly outclassed:

#'s 2 & 1.

Blech.... odds too low on everyone here.....

ELLIS PARK RACE 6

Nothing too detailed to report, except that #9(3rd ML) is a very poor value: sports lousy figs and that running style is a kiss of death at this track / distance. LAY it.
It MIGHT clunk up in the money, but NOT Win: there are just too many others that can beat it:

#'s 10, 2 & 3 are itching to make up for tardy starts last out & sport various changes like jock, blinkers, lasix... & don't forget to calculate the possibilty of a marked improvement in second lifetime race for two of them.
As well, all three debuters look live in here, to boot, only one horse in here has topped the race pars for pace or final time: #10

Edit: NO money to be made here...to boot a large field to deal with. We were offered just under $2.32 payoff on #9 and decided it was too measly. However, if YOU took it and kept the LAY PARLAY going, you're now @ 230%. Once you hit 300%, pull back original unit + 1 unit profit, and restart a new progression.

ELLIS PARK RACE 9

We won't be betting this race, but: #8 offers very, very good value...while #3 is the totally underlayed opposite.

Edit: Looks like we were on the same wavelength as everyone else, as our choice became very undervalued-- drifting between 8/5 & 2-1, and the projected undervaluee went off at a smidgen under 3-1...and actually won.

ARLINGTON PARK RACE 7

We're going to be LAYING #8(co-second ML)... it looks like it won't be able to handle today's expected Pace of Race.

Edit: wound up being favored... don't know why: Bill Mott doesn't use cobra venom(squeaky clean trainer) & Rene Douglas(the Jerry Bailey of Chicago tracks) wouldn't've been allowed to carry the horse during the race anyhow. Got a sliver under $2.60 payoff.

SACRAMENTO FAIR RACE 4

Heavy ML fave #1 obviously looks strong... although it will likely be pushed by the live debuter... no money to be made, and no certainty either. However, since four of these area closely bunched odds-wise behind the fave, we may be able to find playable LAY odds:

we will look first at #5, then at #3.

Edit: First choice 5 offered @ $2.29 - 2.32, second choice 3 offered @ $2.10....guess which we took?
If YOU've been matching our LAY Parlay, you should be @ ~~294%, almost triple your starting unit~~.340%...time to pull back & re-start. We passed once, are @ ~~269%~~.296%

We recommend you pull back now, since only one more betting race remains today, we'll post amounts under that race.

DEL MAR RACE 7

Win Candidates:

#5-- the one to beat...projects to be alone on the lead AND to boot is improving both pace and final time from race to race. The fly in the ointment is already-beaten #8, who may go on a kamikaze dueling mission with blinkers added. If so:

~~#7-- can take it all...what with getting an extra ½ furlong + a possible huge fig leap in its second career race~~. SCR

~~These next are more saver / bottom exotics slots candidates. Their win chance depends on the top pacesetter getting cooked AND the top closer suffering a bad trip.~~

Let's move both the following to the scratchee's slot... as they're both double-digit odds.

#'s 6 & 3 ~~The former should be offered at generous odds... for that reason alone it could even deserve a Win Slot Saver bet.~~

And let's relegate the following two(2 & 9) to bottom of exotics slots ONLY....AND not together or directly underneath #5(in other words, ONLY one fave/co-fave per ticket.

A further notch below those is:

#2-- MUST break cleanly AND get a clear trip(not get bottled up inside or forced to loop everyone)... will likely be UNDERLAYED.

An even further notch below above ~~BUT offering great value~~:

#9-- is improving numbers-wise, but needs a fast, contested pace to have the best chance.

If you're playing Super / Tri, #8 has a small chance at the ~~third / fourth / fifth slots~~. We will look to LAY it.

Let's Lay 8, and use that projected win money for exotics-- and leave #8 "completely out" of all exotics... or only underneath two longshots. BTW that price will likely be $2.45

EDIT 1: ~~We recommend you pull back the same amount as us: 215%, and bet the remaining 69%...44% for us~~. You can now bank TWO units profit, as well as the original starting unit...leaving a bet for this race of 40% Unit.

We have a goal of a minimum 125% daily profit. So, we will bank that & original unit....then bet the remaining 71% Unit.

EDIT 2: WOW.... almost everyone went for the lead-- setting a fast 21.8 first fraction-- #'s 2 & 6 were up with the expected 5 & 8...as well, #'s 3 & 4 were stalking right on the heels of those first four battlers. What the??? The jocks must've found Valenzuela's secret cocaine stash just before the race...

And as for #8-- looks like the blinkers allowed it to relax early...instead of the expected......

We actually got shut out of a bet here--- the last two minutes to post nothing was offered on #8.

We'll next take a peek at a couple of Penn National & Evangeline Downs races...

Edit: found nothing there... will get a head start on tomorrow.

2008 Del Mar Handicapping Challenge Thirty-sixth Day Monday August 25

2008-08-25T19:14:00.001-05:00

Dodged a bullet here.

We selected #'s 4 & 10... gave a long look at 3 & 8. 9, the eventual place horse, was our least-liked longshot... part of uncoupled Gallagher entry.

The jock on #4 is what eventually broke the longshot quandary for us-- but his riding tactics leave us perplexed: we were expecting a closeup, rating ride, not a duel for the lead...the wrong tactic to employ on that surface and distance.

2008 Del Mar Handicapping Challenge Thirty-fifth Day Sunday August 24

2008-08-24T20:59:00.001-05:00

The Pacific Classic is not normally conducive to longshots-- esp. this year's version... another $100 saved.

2008 Del Mar Handicapping Challenge Thirty-fourth Day Saturday August 23

2008-08-24T20:58:00.001-05:00

Blecchhh...

2008 Del Mar Handicapping Challenge Thirty-third Day Friday August 22

2008-08-22T20:28:00.001-05:00

#3 has a very good chance.... over cap odds to boot... go baby go!

2008 Del Mar Handicapping Challenge Thirty-second Day Thursday August 21

2008-08-21T18:43:00.001-05:00

We had #2. Would've won if commited to threading horses.... but not with that drop back to last and loop the field 10-wide despite breaking from pp2 ride. To boot it blew the turn-- if at least it had leaned inwards and cut the corner it probably would've still won in spite of the trip... but noooo.... it had to give everyone else a real wide berth.
What it looked like was that mid-backstretch the jock thought about looking for some hole thru the pack, then just before the turn changed mind and very sharply / needlessly swung out(instead of just easing wide-- there was no one else to outside or behind to contend with) only it did this too close to the turn and that momentum took the horse back and sideways as the pack kept rounding the opposite way.

We needed a good jock here.

Even More Olympic Wagering Opportunities Late Thursday & Early Friday Aug. 21-22

2008-08-21T15:57:00.001-05:00

Okie, dokie. We have 5 events, thus we need 5 betting units...hook them each / all with your base of Soccer ARG-NIG Over 2½ +115 thusly:

Parlay 1 (2-teamer) 1½ Units: Water Polo Men-- USA over Serbia +248

Parlay 2 (3-teamer) 1½ Units: Volleyball Men-- USA over Russia +134 AND Water Polo Men-- HUN over MNE -163

Parlay 3 (3-teamer) 2 Units: Beach Volleyball-- US pair over Brazil pair -223 AND Water Polo Men-- HUN over MNE -163

Now, for those of you not allowed to parlay these...or just wishing better payoffs by manually parlaying-- here's the order of the events(DOUBLE-CHECK TO ENSURE WE OR THE NBC WEBSITE HAVEN'T ERRED OR THE SCHEDULES GET ALTERED):

First: Beach Volleyball followed by Volleyball USA-Russia...might get shut out if attempting to hook sequentially

Second: both Water Polo matches-- they're back to back, but like above pair, would also be dicey to handle them individually

Third: Soccer

So, you could do the following:

Of your 5 betting units, bet:

A. 1-1/3 on Beach Volleyball

B. 1 on the regular Volleyball

After those events are in, add together your payoffs to the unused 2-2/3 units.

Bet 31% of everything on HUNGARY Water Polo and...
19% on USA Water Polo

After that, add your payoffs to the unused 50%, pull back your betting units + enough to guarantee a profit for the Olympics(this is the third session we bet together these Olympics-- you have profit from the first and loss from the second) and bet the remaining on the Soccer final.
If that math does not work out, then we'll assess our options before the Soccer match. We'll either bet extra on it and/or the riskier Over 3½ goals.

Those of you who like Round Robins can do this:

Toss out the Beach Volleyball, and with 3 Units do Two-Team Round Robins using the regular Volleyball & the two Water Polo Matches. Afterwards, if say only two out three won-- thus cashing once only-- add your payoff to a fourth unit and ride all that on the Soccer. But if you cash all three, then follow above parlay step that guarantees profit.

UPDATE

Now that the first two events have won, it's time to protect our parlays. This MUST be done, irregardless of how UNLIKELY an opposing side's chances, in order to GUARANTEE profit no matter who wins the latter events.

Let's bet TWO units on MNE +175 in the first Water Polo match.

UPDATE 2

Okie dokie, we're killing them today Hannibal Lecter style. BTW The way the manner in which the Hungary match transpired early made us very glad for having reverse-hedged it. Here are suggestions for your next wagers depending on which of the three methods you're using:

1. Original fixed parlays-- You're waiting on a possible payoff of almost 33½ units. Subtracting the original 5 + 2 used to reverse hedge leaves just under 26½ net that must be protected-- we'll post some ideas on that shortly.

2. Manual sequence-- You should now have just over 14-3/4 units - original 5 = 9-3/4 net. Seems skimpy in comparison to the other methods, no? It always will "when zero games lose". In a similar manner, folks who bet those smaller parlays make a lot less than with one giant parlay instead--they would be sitting on payoff of over 192½ units. But it's just unrealistic to expect such a near-perfect total day's outcome.
You need to be content in the knowledge that you always had money in pocket to continue betting "even if both concurrent(or almost) games lost each of the two times".

A riskier alternative could've been to assume that at worst one game would fall but you would cash the other one-- thus risking the entire cash in hand each time. BUT.... you'd have to be prepared to come up with:

A. another 5 units as many as two additional times in worst case scenario.

B. 2-3 units in case of 1-1 result of first series... if only the -223 game won. BTW replacing those partial units would be mandatory in order to avoid having subsequent wins w/ lower bet amounts. Otherwise, the next series also ends up 1-1 and you may not even have a chance to break even in the end.

The safe way you bet just gave you many additional options re guaranteed profits. At the end of the very first series you stood with almost 9 total units. You could do many things then: like pulling back original 5 units + say 1 of guaranteed profit... then gone for the jugular with the remaining 3 units on the remaining 3 games... 'with their money only'.

3. Round Robins-- You should now be sitting with over 17½ units, over 12½ net. Now here we could've included the soccer as well in our original advice, but we didn't want to overcomplicate things. You did 3 two-teamers-- you could've added the soccer to each and wound up with 3 three-teamers.

We'll post some ideas later on how to get additional, almost guaranteed profit from the soccer final for those on steps 2 & 3. And for those on step 1 some ways to not only guarantee profit but maybe even collect on both sides-- both the main bet and the hedge.

Stay tuned.

UPDATE 3

Some ideas for those in steps 2 & 3:

A. Risk only a little / bank most of your profit while still taking a shot at another nice payoff:

MLB Baseball Milwaukee(vs Pit) -265 parlayed to MLB Baseball TB-Chi UNDER 9½ -110 Parlayed to Soccer Over 4½ +615 parlayed to Basketball Women USA -370 parlayed to Basketball USA Men - whatever

Each unit bet should pay over 26 units.

B. Safely win an adequate amount of money with a larger bet:

Soccer Over 2½ +115 parlayed to Basketball Women USA -370 parlayed to Basketball USA Men - whatever

Each unit bet should pay just over 3 units.

Now for those in step 1:

A little bit of a dilemma-- ideal would be a way to have a decent chance of middling the hedge. The problem is that we foresee a high-scoring game and/or one side dominating the other. If someone offered an Even Goal Amount Prop, it would suit us to a tee: covering 0-0, 1-1, 2-0(only leaving 1-0 exposed) & just under half the possible high goal outcomes.

So, let's try for two things--

1. try to make the hedging amount elsewhere(thus a free bet). So let's FIRST do a two-team parlay w/ 1/3 of your planned hedge bet tonight: MLB Baseball Milwaukee(vs Pit) -265 parlayed to MLB Baseball TB-Chi UNDER 9½ -110

2. at least a slim chance of middling AND collecting big payoff in the process-- in return for having to hedge out such a large portion of the expected profit. Now take your payoff, add it to the unused 2/3 and

Hook Soccer UNDER 3½ -327 to: Basketball Women USA -370 parlayed to Basketball USA Men - whatever

Example: say you wish to use, from your expected 26½ NET Unit Win, @10½ units to hedge, leaving a potential NET of 16 won at the least(assuming soccer game goes over).
Use 3½ on the Baseball Parlay, which should return just under 8-3/4 Units + unused 7 = just over 15-2/3 in hand.
These you can parlay thusly: Soccer UNDER 4½ -930 parlayed to Basketball Women USA -370 parlayed to Basketball USA Men - whatever...
The payoff should be @25 Units, which has a chance to w/ middle the other potential payoff 33½ Units.
Your total initial + first & second hedge investments will be 5 + 2 + 10½ = 17½ Units....subtract this from whatever you collect for your NET, which should be either of these 3 amounts:

A. ONLY main bet hits: 16 Units

B. ONLY hedge hits: 7-8 Units

C. MIDDLE: 41 Units

3. Now, what if the baseball parlay loses, you ask? Well, you had 7 unused units--
Parlay them either of these two ways:

A. Soccer UNDER 3½ -131 parlayed to Basketball Women USA -370 parlayed to Basketball USA Men - whatever... Payoff will be 17½ Units...Perfect Breakeven IF you DON"T middle main bet. Profit of 17½ if you do.

B. Soccer UNDER 2 +105 parlayed to Basketball Women USA -370 parlayed to Basketball USA Men - whatever... Payoff will be @20½ units, for a NET of 3. IFF you push first leg here, payoff is 10 units, for total loss of @7 Units(the original + first hedge amount).

However, keep in mind these results are after losing main bet, having had multiple opps to cash big... can't always expect to cash large in spite of a loss can you? Well, we would still have one last ace in the hole(assuming a disaster push in that last example: a baseball play(s) for that night, to bring us into the black anyway!).

What's that, Virginia? What if US women & men lose? Are you kidding me? So what if they do? They can only hurt us IF our main bet loses. Another way to look at it-- US odds are prohibitively low, so for the Hedge part, they allow us to collect fairly substantially over their odds by winning. If they lose, we were going to lose something anyway....in effect getting a return from them much better than when betting them exclusively / singly.

UPDATE 4

Let's do 5 Units Halftime Nigeria ML +450 parlayed to Basketball Women USA -370

UPDATE 5

We'll find something to hook the last reverse to, after Basketball, to get into the black. Look for that in a new thread. As well we're planning to drop the bankroll on USA Women's Basketball final. Stay tuned.

Some More Olympic Wagering Opportunities

2008-08-21T06:21:00.001-05:00

Re the Beach Volleyball Women's Final....can't believe that Chinese team was seeded first-- esp. w/ their relative lack of experience. The US pair seeded second... defending World Champions who hadn't even lost a set ever?? Gimme a break.

If you have access to In-Running wagering, take USA women in softball(vs Japan).

Some soccer bets coming shortly...

Okie, dokie...as Hannibal Lecter uttered before murdering his victim(in our case the book)....Take FOUR betting units and make three equal bets(so 1-1/3 units each):

Parlay 1:

USA-Brazil OVER 2½ +120 WITH Argentina-Brazil OVER 2½ +115

Parlay 2:

Brazil(Women) ML +107 WITH Argentina-Brazil OVER 2½ +115

Parlay 3:

USA-Brazil OVER 3½ +284 WITH Argentina-Brazil OVER 2½ +115

Be ready with an extra 4-8 betting units during BOTH in-game / Halftime of the women's final(find yourself a book that offers either / both) AND right afterward: we're going to protect the bets & guarantee profit.

Once in a while a loss not only occurs, but it transpires in such a way as to not allow some kind of protection or reverse... that occurred twice today.

In the softball game, a bet on the US after game start was the only way to get decent odds. Alas, they pretty much gave the game away-- they never even took the lead so that we could then scalp the outcome(bet both sides for guaranteed profit)...Actually, those of you that had In-Running betting may have had a fleeting chance to do so when the US was at bat with the bases loaded. But lots of credit has to go to the Japanese & their pitcher UENO(28 innings / 400+ pitches in two days, unbelievable)... they seemed like the team of destiny the last three games.

The soccer game also transpired in a manner that did not allow any way to protect the original bet: just one goal anytime before halftime would've given us some options.

We'll have some more wagers for today and tomorrow-- stay tuned for a subsequent post.

PS Are we the only ones that regard Bob Neumeier as a candidate for the Biggest Horse's Arse in Sports Broadcasting(he's been doing the Track & Field interviews... and does the KY Derby annually)?

2008 Del Mar Handicapping Challenge Thirty-first Day Wednesday August 20

2008-08-20T21:49:00.001-05:00

#'s 5 & 10(third and fourth place finishers were our choices.

We got shut out(Olympics) though-- just as well.

DelMar Race 6 Wednesday August 20

2008-08-20T17:57:00.001-05:00

One of our clients is running here, so we'll post some handicapping thoughts on this race...which seems fairly susceptible to a longshot winner:

PP# (ML odds)

1: Scratched

2 (12-1) Doesn't compete well on numbers...UNLESS if you factor in lengths lost due to traffic issues in its debut-- speaking off-- second career race makes it eligible for a big fig jump. As well it could be the recipient of a perfect rail trip... or the total opposite. This horse could win as likely as finish up the track. Nevertheless, longshot odds demand inclusion. Contender.

3 (4-1) Offers very poor value & will draw too much attention with Gomez aboard. Yes, anyone attracting Gomez aboard for the first time merits a long look; but according to our numbers, it rates poorly on both pace & final time. Even if say, Gomez attempted a change to a closing style, the final number would have to improve by many lengths to contend here. Toss-Out. (PS now, if the ML odds situation was reversed, it would merit a bet on the hope of a turnaround w/ Gomez.)

4 (5/2) Speedster merits respect-- esp. w/ Bejarano aboard for the first time. However, #8 may make it run faster early than it likes. Otherwise, should #8 not get to the front, it could wind up controlling the pace. Coin toss either way...won't offer value. Marginal Contender. IF you must use, relegate to bottom slots of exotics and don't combine with other short odds candidates.

5 (12-1) So-so number two back. However, should get a ground-saving stalking trip...could inherit the lead and hold off the come from behinders. And longshot odds definitely make it a... Contender.

6 (10-1) Very, very, very live longshot. Has faced much tougher AND actually has the best numbers if you extract internal sprint from its route races. As well its last sprint long ago yields a number better than any in here. Prime Contender.

7 (9/5) Has a lot to recommend it. Because of likely favorite status it becomes one of those cases where you include it in all your tickets while hoping it bounces or some trip calamity befalls it.. Prime Contender.

8 (10-1) We're not too crazy about this horse, BUT it has enough speed to clear the field; and at those odds we wouldn't want to chance not having a loose on the lead longshot. Contender...but it's a Win or finish up the track type.

9 (20-1) This speedster seems very up against it-- its early numbers aren't great, it's prone to tardy departures, it's used to being on a lone lead...Today could find itself hung out to the parking lot battling a much faster pace. Its only chance would be rating ability-- but it hasn't demonstrated that ability yet. Toss-Out...although we will never, ever chide you for betting the longest shot on the board.

If you're playing exotics, #7 is the only fave we would play on top...although not on top of any other fave. Of the other two faves, we would completely eliminate #3(in fact, if you have access to a betting exchange, LAY it)... and #4 we would toss from top slot + we would only use underneath longshots.

Who we like in order:

6/7/ then

5/2/ then

8/4

We don't like 3 & 9...would only use in third or fourth slots of exotics, and then ONLY underneath longshots.

Cash a big one.

#3's disaster was bad for others as well in here-- firstly, it knocked #2 to dead last...secondly, it allowed #4 to control the pace & finish in the money. That's horseracing for you.

BTW re #4-- it hovered @ 10-1 odds for quite a while-- we almost, almost posted an upgrade to prime status along with 6 & 7.

Some Olympic Wagering Opportunities

2008-08-19T06:48:00.001-05:00

Add together THREE of your usual betting units and bet TWO parlays:

56% on Argentina-Brazil OVER 2 -120

the remaining 44% Argentina Money Line +157

EACH hooked to Will the 200m World Record be Broken? YES-- +180

IF you're NOT allowed to parlay, then just take TWO units and:

38% on Argentina-Brazil OVER 3½ +358

62% Will the 200m World Record be Broken? YES-- +180

IF you don't have access to those type of bets AND / OR you need a safe / drop the bankroll / bet the mortgage type bet:

then just do a straight Argentina-Brazil OVER 2 -120

Some thoughts midstream:

We based our recommendations 'widespread' offerings seen on the web.
The ideal lines would / should have been: Over 2½ & Over 3 in the above examples... we didn't see those offered. Heck, it was hard enough to find any lines offered at all.

2½ would've been ideal in order to bump the payoff into the plus side(100+). And 3 obviously is a lot safer than 3½.

And getting a higher than EVEN payoff is key for us-- we rarely accept a lower payoff unless we really like a side.

As far as the game itself--if you watched it-- the total goals should've been a lot higher-- between an unjustly disallowed goal, to a crossbar hit, to a few open misses(vs solitary goalkeeper). All that in spite of both team's defensive game plans....

BTW It's very important to perform parlays manually as much as possible. Of course, a lot of that depends on whether your book is prone to slow grading and/or unexplained early bet closing times.

The benefits are:

1. Almost all the time the payoff is larger.

2. After initial win, one can pull back and guarantee some profit.

Of course, one MUST be disciplined, in case of initial loss, to manually continue the progression with the required amounts.

PS Always check during a game we tout-- we are always looking to dutch or hedge with In Game or Halftime bets.

Re 200 Metre FInal:

Don't be surprised if Bolt breaks 19 second barrier-- he's that freakingly good.

Told you so. He needs to take up 400m though-- not for serious racing, but that will seriously focus his training & perfect his 200M performance.

We have another selection for tomorrow, stay tuned.

2008 Del Mar Handicapping Challenge Thirtieth Day Monday August 18

2008-08-18T23:06:00.001-05:00

#'s 10 & 5 were our choices today-- the former: dominant speedster who projected to be alone at the second call...the latter: a closer / grinder who figured to benefit from a multi-horse speed duel.

But, as often occurs in horseracing-- the best laid plans of mice and men.... the connections of #10 chose to have it close instead-- and it sulked itself right out of the race. Meantime, the remaining speedsters set a considerably slower pace of 22.5 & 46...allowing two of them to finish in front.

2008 Del Mar Handicapping Challenge Twenty-ninth Day Sunday August 17

2008-08-17T19:13:00.001-05:00

Played #2 in one entry, & #7(the eventual place horse) in another.

2008 Del Mar Handicapping Challenge Twenty-eighth Day Saturday August 16

2008-08-16T20:29:00.001-05:00

First three finishers were our actual choices.

The longest shot of them, & actual show finisher, was not offered at such high odds pre-race...and as well we liked the other two better.

So we decided to win dutch the 10 & 11(the winner was offered at much higher odds then)... but we got distracted elsewhere and got shut out... would've cleared @ $175..... ehhhh.....

2008 Del Mar Handicapping Challenge Twenty-seventh Day Friday August 15

2008-08-16T20:24:00.001-05:00

Porto Marmay was our hapless choice...no value today.

2008 Del Mar Handicapping Challenge Twenty-sixth Day Thursday August 14

2008-08-15T02:45:00.001-05:00

Totally did NOT miss this race-- judging by the mutuels, we wish we had.

2008 Del Mar Handicapping Challenge Twenty-fifth Day Wednesday August 13

2008-08-13T20:55:00.001-05:00

Totally missed this race-- judging by the mutuels, good thing we did.

2008 Del Mar Handicapping Challenge Twenty-fourth Day Monday August 11

2008-08-12T02:50:00.001-05:00

Nothing of great value offered...This is a race we would've normally passed during the first half of the contest. But, since we've already banked the necessary amount of skipped races, we may as well play something...

we took #7, hoping for a wire job...pretty lame choice @ pretty lame odds.

2008 Del Mar Handicapping Challenge Twenty-third Day Sunday August 10

2008-08-10T17:12:00.001-05:00

Best Pal Stakes is a wide open race here-- the longshot winner will go a long way in deciding this contest.

Only question is which of the handful of probable cap horses does one back?

Stupid DelMar saved us $100-- w/ minutes remaining until post would not allow a contest bet.

As well nice to see a DQ put up the favorite-- when we don't win.

A domani ragazzi.

2008 Del Mar Handicapping Challenge Twenty-second Day Saturday August 9

2008-08-09T18:48:00.001-05:00

We took #'s 1 & 3.... nice to see faves come in when our choices don't.....

2008 Del Mar Handicapping Challenge Twenty-first Day Friday August 8

2008-08-08T20:44:00.001-05:00

Again we erred today, missing the contest race-- good thing too: we liked #2(finished second)-- we save another $100... and bank the necessary 11 unplayed races.

We now can play every single race left w/o running into the max. allowed races limit.

We will be very mindful of needing to cash in when longshots are not an alternative-- in other words:

the next longshot winner we hit, will likely also have been picked by others ahead of us...so in that interim, we need to pass as many of them as possible.

And we will need to repeat that cycle afterward-- wash / rinse / repeat in order to get to the top of the leaderboard.

See you tomorrow.

2008 Del Mar Handicapping Challenge Twentieth Day Thursday August 7

2008-08-08T09:32:00.001-05:00

We actually missed this-- were too involved with our bread and butter handicapping.

Everything's good though-- no longshot won / we saved $100. Speaking of, we now have 10 unplayed races banked, out of a total of 11 needed.

For all intents and purposes that fulfillment's met & we can play every single remaining race... it will be pretty hard during the contest's next 23 races to not find one single 'safe & undamaging' race to skip: with neither a viable longshot or standout in the money candidate..

This will should put us in good stead for the contest stretch run-- notice how almost all the top contestants have played almost every race-- eventually(within the next 10-12 contest days or so)-- most will not be allowed to play anymore races, while we get to still play @ another extra 10-12.

To boot, as we've already stated, we're not impressed with just about anyone significantly in the plus column:

let's see, there's almost 7 thousand contestants...let's say @ the current top 10%... @ those $700 or better-- the winner will likely NOT come from that group. Why?

There's been maybe ONE true longshot winner fitting 'correct contest strategy'... meaning that of all CAP(or near) mutuel winners, only one was at a high enough level within a few minutes of post time.

ALL the other high-priced winners were in the high teens at best at cutoff time of 4 min. to post. That is the absolute threshold one should adhere to in order to ensure not getting shut out. Yes, at times one is able to select even as the horses are loading in the gate-- but not always.

What all that means is that the current leaders have been playing fairly low-priced selections-- & subsequently lucked out with the odds drifting significantly up by the time the races in question went off.
So, we can continue playing our limit selections-- knowing that if the leaders didn't shoot for those high prices in the beginning-- they certainly won't later on as they try to jockey for position amongst those closely-ranked to them. This will be their downfall-- when the next couple of longshots come in, they won't be anywhere near the top-- and may already be at or near the maximum allowed races limit.

See you later....

2008 Del Mar Handicapping Challenge Nineteenth Day Wednesday August 6

2008-08-06T20:28:00.001-05:00

Less than 3 lengths separated top 6 finishers. Either of the first two favorites could've won this race with a better start and/or trip-- although we take nothing away from the winner accomplishing this in only its second career start.

And actually, the winner was among our contender group-- along with #10, who offered much better odds(who finished a non-threatening seventh w/o any trip eventualities). Our hero fit two ways:

as the contender offered at the best odds & as the longshot with the best chance(the only longhshot with any chance here btw).

Our hero didn't seem to fire late-- it didn't seem to relax early as in previous races-- it seemed to run faster than normal early so as not to lose touch.

See you mañana.

2008 Del Mar Handicapping Challenge Eighteenth Day Monday August 4

2008-08-04T19:10:00.001-05:00

Finally something....although price kinda sucks.

Among our handful of contenders, 2 & 4 were offered at the highest odds-- although in the teens is really nothing for this contest. Normally we would pass at such relatively meager value...

HOWEVER:

1. we've already banked close to the needed 11 unplayed races-- the point at which one can play 'every single remaining contest race'.

2. we do need to start catching up-- and actually, we may be spinning our wheels versus those leaders w/ the same selection today.

The rationale for both horses was similar:

#2-- unlimited potential fig jump as a new 3yo. We played this one in our main entry.

#4-- unlimited potential as well, but for different reasons-- a combination of layoffs, trip trouble & different distances / surfaces had not afforded this horse a chance to demonstrate its top potential 'at this race distance & conditions'. Of course, the potential was larger for the former, so this one went to our for fun entry...finishing a closeup third.

BTW in case you wonder how the speed held up so well-- the early pace was glacial:

a. why #10 held on like that until the end.

b. Baze rode a real heady(or lucky) race-- up on the slow duel.

We will now be switching to what we could call 'fulfilled skipped races strategy' for the remainder of the contest:

we will play all races(we just have ~~one~~ two more to skip as a requirement). While we will still look to play longshots-- particularly @ cap level-- when none are offered(or those offered have zero chance), we will then select the main contender @ the largest odds offered @ posttime; the only exception to the latter may be if something is fairly sure to hit the board(irrespective of odds): we may take the sure money in that case.

The logic goes like this:

since one has to skip 11 races in this contest-- the most sensible & productive way of accomplishing this is by 'early on' not playing races that don't offer a chance at a high mutuel and/or at least some guaranteed money(as in a superior runner laying over the field). However, once those races are banked-- allowing one to play ALL remaining races, then the onus becomes on cashing(esp. if behind at this point) / one can & should lower odds threshold. When no high mutuel is available / offered, something cashed is better than nothing.

2008 Del Mar Handicapping Challenge Seventeenth Day Sunday August 3

2008-08-04T18:37:00.001-05:00

All odds very, very low. Nothing to do.

2008 Del Mar Handicapping Challenge Sixteenth Day Saturday August 2

2008-08-02T12:36:00.001-05:00

So far, we have banked 8 unplayed of 11 needed days.

Of more concern is the sizable lead the top handful or so have managed to attain: when we hit a longshot, we need for them to not hit it as well.

BUTTTT............the biggest challenge, re the contest though, is the parimutuel dump-- which to boot can be totally unpredictable:

The odds @ 1-2 minutes to post(and not always can one bet so close to post anyhow-- when races delay, the contest organizers usually set back the entry deadline time to reflect the adjusted posttime...but not always) and the final odds one can see on race charts can be so widespread it's not funny.

Some time ago, one horse we passed over with odds in the low-mid teens almost doubled to 25, while other longshots took more money & went down enough to leave said horse as the only longshot(double most their odds). If one missed the race and just looked at the chart later, one would be so sure of having had that if on time(along with many contestants-- who you'd think would be attracted to the only longshot in the field)....

This happened again a couple of days ago, although not to our selection:

we had been monitoring the 5 largest ML entrants, with the intention of playing whichever was the significantly largest longshot--

we were on a cap horse, the other 4 offered little value...all in the teens. Well, one of them went to 25 after the bell and just held on in the race to grab the win.

BTW our cap horse was only @25 when we selected it, after having yoyoed up & down between 17-21 most of the time, hoping it would drift up instead. We were rewarded by seing 30 as they loaded, eventually passing cap limit after the bell.

In fact, @ 4-5 min. to post all the odds were so low that we almost took off, but decided to stick around.

Our complaint is not that we would've had that winner, but how it rewarded unsound strategy:

Now we currently have contest leaders who, barring those who selected early / were not around @ posttime, got there with the most unsound, clueless strategy imaginable-- they have two longshot winners that they selected when they were in the low-mid teens...vs other higher-odds entrants already present!

The only possible excuse to select such a beast is when having singled it out as the towering best-- although that would make said person the Einstein of handicapping with a license to print money.

Now, we don't begrudge anyone success... but come on....

It's like handicapping doesn't count & wagering odds are not often what they seem-- one needs a Ouija board just to guess what they will be.

Pre-bet 7 & 10.

Contest interface wouldn't cancel either bet(odds too low) close to post time.

We just wanted refunds, had no alternate worthwhile, value choice(s).

There were only 3 cap horses in here: 1, 2, 3 and they stood NO chance 'whatsoever'.

2008 Del Mar Handicapping Challenge Fifteenth Day Friday August 1

2008-08-02T11:45:00.001-05:00

Nothin'ado.

Saratoga Showdown Day 9 Friday August 1

2008-08-01T07:36:00.001-05:00

Ok, we're out...and discontinuing this. We'll see you at Belmont's Fall edition. Next year, we'll enter Saratoga Showdown with an adequate number of entries.

Yesterday,
All my longshots seemed so far away,
Now it looks as though they're here to stay,
Oh, I don't believe in yesterday.

Suddenly,
I'm not half the man I used to be,
There's a favorite hanging over me,
Oh, yesterday came suddenly.

Why'd she
take the chalk I don't know, she wouldn't say.
I said,
No, no just because you won yesterday!

And she said,
Bets were such an easy game to play,
Now I need a place to hide away,
Oh, YES I believe in yesterday.

Why'd she
take the chalk I don't know, she wouldn't say.
I said,
No, no just because you won yesterday!

Yes she said,
Bets were such an easy game to play,
Now I need a place to hide away,
Oh, YES I believe in yesterday.
Mm-mm-mm-mm-mm-mm-mm.

WE START THE DAY WITH 9% SURVIVING CONTEST ENTRIES

Yesterday we rode in the jump race specifically to avoid possible bloodbaths in the races popular with contestants.
It didn't quite work to our advantage...some popular choices hung on for third. That bad luck was due to a coupla things:

1. many races scratched down too much.
2. three / four races had considerable bumping-- esp. among foes to the popular choices.

So, as long as all that does not excessively repeat, we should see plenty of eliminations today. And yes, like yesterday, our selection will be a favorite not particularly favored by the public.

Today's card contains plenty of:
A. suspicious droppers
B. favored horses with plenty of unanswered questions.

And even the one race with a small field holds no gimme, and is a rather contentious, with all but one entrant bunched closely in the Morning Line. We give everyone a shot, even the ML longshot is not out of it by any means-- we've pegged it as the Bud Longshot actually.
Although more importantly, each & all horses in there carry question marks. It's a chaos race where 5 of 6 entrants should each curry favor with contestants-- ergo there will be some eliminations, no matter the outcome. It's entirely very possible that the longshot finishes in the money, and one or two of the more favored ones finish out.

We'll write a little more about this race later on.

TO HECK WITH MEANINGLESS & USELESS WEATHER FORECASTS

PRELIMINARY THOUGHTS ON SOME RACES--

RACE 2--

This race has two entrants that will attract considerable contestant interest-- it makes no sense to bet here for that and to boot, other lingering handicapping doubts re each co-favored horse.

First-- assuming one has several strong candidates throughout the card-- one should not ride on overly popular horses. Even if the selection is solid, anything can happen. There are two co-faves here sitting in adjacent stalls, their riders likely fixating on each other-- what if they tangle up?
Losing favorites are the most efficient executioners / firing squads in eliminator contests-- so as much as 'sensibly possible' we should strive to remove ourselves beforehand from a path where bullets earmarked for the crowds may possibly pass.

Second-- before even getting into handicapping merit-- if both horses are about equal or one cannot be eliminated-- a bet would carry too much risk / become a coin toss. If one by misfortune picks the one that loses to the other, then our hero can ONLY let ONE other from among "among the rest of the field" defeat it.

Third-- if to boot the horse(s) have serious handicapping question marks...

#3-- There's just an air of dubiousness for this ML favorite, seemingly best in this race:

Running at this class level-- esp. following that layoff-- just doesn't exude confidence: we'd have preferred to see an initial crack at Allowance level. As well the mediocre work tab w/ only short works adds little comfort. The public today will likely cherry pick its best couple of numbers before its last race, and be impressed by top jock aboard & Trainer Levine's almost 30% clip rate both overall for the year & in various relevant stats.
We however, are mindful of his win percentage nosediving from the fiery 40's during Belmont to very pedestrian 2 for 13 after officials had every single horse in his barn surprise tested just prior to Saratoga meet starting.

Now, we're not necessarily right-- but we're also not going to join the chalk herds to find out.

#4--

Will either be co-favorite or close second to above.

Again, we look at this horse in a somewhat similar light: from its class drop to the ice cold stats of its very able trainer and jock: 0 for 7 & 2 for 42 respectively. Actually, according to our numbers, there may not be anything wrong with this horse: We have every single one of the first five races, across different tracks and surface types / conditions s mind you, ascending each from the previous one-- until the last race's slight dip, which could possibly be due to having to run much faster early yet being so much farther back than accustomed to...+ maybe not being unduly pushed late in a hopeless cause.

We would much rather(if we had to that is) take this horse over the other one-- but our safety cushion significantly deflates if the other one is ready to romp.

RACE 3--

Even Money ML favorite should attract the most entries. It could either romp or finish out-- here's why:

early pace numbers are way inferior to others in here. Now, is that because this horse is a closer-- who impressively chased a loose frontrunner? Then it romps...or maybe not-- it's going to have a giant bullseye mentally painted on it by all the other riders-- who will be doing their utmost to pin it in, block it, etc.
If it happens to not be a closer, then today's fast pace may do it in.

If we HAD to bet this race, we'd rather take #4, who may shake loose early-- or #7, who is used to facing very fast early paces.

RACE 5--

We like the standout horse here-- or conversely-- we dislike it the LEAST of all other favorites today. A big plus is that it shouldn't attract that many contest votes because of the larger field, sizable number of debuters, dipping figure, etc. This may well be our contest horse; although we will continue searching for something better, esp. after scratches.

Yes, we would've liked to see a fig # jump, as well as no return to claiming ranks. However, the newly-demonstrated closing ability is a huge plus...in its previous races it just looked like a determined frontrunner who would at all costs not allow anyone to pop a head in front early.
Now we don't have to fret about any speed-crazy debuter-- it should be able to sit right behind and then pounce. As a bonus, if no one really wants the lead-- its previous early pace fig is open lengths faster than any of the experienced runners.

RACE 6--

Some nice horses in here-- and couple of question marks as well. The size of this field makes this race more appropriate for betting than for contest purposes.
edit: Field down to 9: 1,3,4,5 main contenders...good luck choosing from between them...which one is most ready to run... which one grew up the most during layoff...

RACE 7--

ML favorite on a suspicious plunge off a long layoff after allowance wins. And trainer & jock have between them one solitary second place finish out of a combined 27 starts here.

Second ML fave, formerly in open maiden and allowance does not inspire much more confidence either @ 25K offering price..

RACE 8--

First two faves(disregard MTO entrant) may be compromised by fast early pace-- yes, even when bias favors speed that can occur.

RACE 9--

Very contentious race-- along with question marks on many. We can envision any, ALL and each of these winning AND finishing out of the money-- so not only why toss a coin-- why even waste time handicapping it further.

We could be persuaded to bet here if by chance two scratched out... as it stands, we'll let other contestants knock heads, and each other out here.

TODAY'S SELECTION-- Race 5 #5

INTRA DAY-- seems like our advise on the various races has been good for parimutuel betting-- doping out a winner with some semblance of a price-- although not for getting the suspect completely off the board.

The entry returned purchase drip seems to finally have dried up.

race 2: #4's gate stumble cost it at least place and maybe win. That would still place fave @ third-- hard to get it out in 5 horse field. #2 late scratch-- we would've considered #7 in 5-horse field. #5 just came here for the scenery-- never lifted a foot. #1 thoroughly basted & cooked in its own juices by the pace, was never going to hit board barring an accident.

race 3: #'s 2 & 6 lost all chance at the break. Yeah, they were longshots-- but that makes it a lot harder, if only mathematically-- to get the sucky fave off the board.

race 5: #5 not getting a ton of money, but then, no one else is less than 6-1...

Top 10 Selections for 8/1/2008
R# No Horse Name Percentage
3-- 3 Afleet Aya     32%
2-- 3 Casino Kay     14%
8-- 7 Prussian         14%
9-- 3 Zada Belle      13%
9-- 1 Miss Macy Sue   6%
6-- 4 Jibboom           4%
9-- 4 Rite Moment    3%
9-- 6 Graeme Six       3%
5-- 5 Ridge Royale    2%
1-- 3 Panthera Tigre 2%

ELIMINEE COUNT-- 338 OF 345 after 4... rollin', rollin', rollin'............

2008 Del Mar Handicapping Challenge Fourteenth Day Thursday July 31

2008-07-31T19:27:00.001-05:00

We circled all longshots: 1,2,6,8,9. We liked them in this sort of order:

6/8/1

2/9

BUT, we planned to eventually single whichever one hit cap odds at posttime.

Last night we pre-played 6 in main entry... and 1 in fun entry.

But with 5 min. to post, nobody-- none of them had any value:

they were all in the teens-- w/ 6 highest @ either 19 or 21, 8 next highest in mid-high teens.

So, we refunded both for:

win dutch: 6 & 8 on main entry

8 alone in fun entry.

Coupla minutes later, 8 drifts down from mid-high teens to low teens, 6 up to 24/25...others still in teens.

So, we dissolved dutch & just singled 6 on main entry(hoping it would drift up further / was now almost double the price as 8), fun entry remained untouched.

When horses load is when 9 drifts past 20 into 24/25.

Not that we liked 9 all that much, but it's annoying to lose to a price that drifted up so much.

Why couldn't it drift up earlier instead of 6, so we could either dutch it or key it.

This is on the heels of similar yesterday-- we don't play horse in the teens(3,4 horses in similar odds range)-- then after loading in gate doubles in price to become only real longshot-- and wins.

What luck.

Saratoga Showdown Day 8 Thursday July 31

2008-07-31T05:38:00.001-05:00

Top 10 Selections for 7/31/2008

R# No Horse Name---   Percentage
6-- 3 Storming Off      32%
9-- 2 Ferocious Fires 23%
3-- 8 Hatta Fort          11%
4-- 2 Isn't That Special 4%
5-- 5 Better Than Swiss 4%
3-- 4 Redefined              4%
1-- 3 Be Certain              3%
9-- 6 Mr. Bourbon Street3%
2-- 8 Valiancy                  3%
9-- 5 Market Psychology 3%

CONTEST SELECTION: RACE 1-- #3 (Yes, baby-- the jumps! Read all about that, and other races today towards the bottom of today's page) Go baby, go!!!

WEATHER NUMBNUTS:

Accuweather: Possible occasional thundershower @ 1PM-- otherwise sunny all day.

Weather.com: Thunderstorms all day 11AM-10PM

We'll side with the former.

CONTEST OUTLOOK FOR TODAY:
More of the same as yesterday-- few eliminations-- more than ½ the race field sizes project to go off in the single digits. Although we never lose hope: all it takes is a propitious bump... or two.
edit: confirmed-- field sizes ~~"before" late scratches~~: 7, 8, 8, 7, 11, 87, 8, 10, 6, 11 One sixer, 3 seveners, 3 eighters....
Thus, a heavy fave in a 7 horse field: "½" the rest of the field has to defeat it...

THOUGHTS FOR THE DAY:
Those of you on a single entry--take each week one day at a time first. Have as a goal, at the start of each racing week-- Wednesday-- lasting that week-- for at the end of it, @ 90% should be gonzo. Surely and steadily the tortoise wins the race. Then you start over again the next week. You may only have to do this a couple of times before the contest comes to a conclusion:
1. at the start of this contest the feat may have looked daunting--- with 3,684 entries-- but look at how much better the picture improved by week's end: only 434 survived!
2. in a similar manner, those of you who purchased multiple entries and have seen them dwindle to say, just one or two-- don't be discouraged. It will help to visualize that by the end of this week the contest could be down to 50... then down to the money positions sometime during the following week.
To our projection factor in plus / minus one week deviation-- the contest might last a bit longer with a week of chock full of successful heavy chalk and/or beacoup scratches resulting in numerous small-field races...although conversely, consecutive Graveyard days could bring a sudden end to the contest.

And don't be concerned with the leaderboard-- chalk players usually lead early in tourneys, but are nowhere to be seen at the end. Losing chalk the fuel of almost 'all eliminations'... it eventually arrives, and in bunches.
In fact, the leaderboard almost never comes into play in NYRA Showdowns. The leaderboard in contests like these is basically there for dweebs to crow on internet boards, blogs, community sites, etc. ad nauseam how they're leading(or close to it) a tournament in the first few days.
Some clueless such beast actually posted @ the Daily Racing Form that he was leading this tourney after the fourth day @ 4-0(his entry's contest handle sorted first alphabetically among those @ 4-0 ROTFLMAO). Yeah, something like half the entries had either 3 or 4 wins then.

On an unrelated though equally dweebish note-- 1½ dozen additional bounced transactions(totaling 90 so far, look for that number to top 100 eventually. Ehh, what's a Grand among friends?):

Updated Prize Pool--$35,940:

1st- $14,376
2nd-    7,188
3rd-    3,594
4th-    2,874.40
5th-    2,336.10
6th-    1,797
7th-    1,437.20
8th-    1,078.20
9th-       718.80
10th-     539.55

Anyway-- if you're of the opinion that life sucks... and even if you disagree, you will still encounter now and then a particular period of time in your life, or at the very least an event, that does suck-- think about this:
boy, if that's bad-- death awaits me eventually... accompanied by lots of pain.

If you wish, you may proceed to cry now-- or at least commence hollering "OUCH!!!"repeatedly and, as they say in opera-- con brio.

see you @ scratch time....btw:

SOME PRELIMINARY CONTENDERS:

RACE 1: #3

RACE 4: main contenders-- 1, 3, 2

RACE 9: main contenders-- 6, 5, 2

TODAY'S CARD ANALYSIS AFTER SCRATCHES--

Today's card is chock full of favorites on:

a. suspicious drops
b. off a long layoff race + a bad comeback race
c. a chaos race with undefined pace scenario / combatants

Yes, lots of small fields too... contestants today are going to focus almost exclusively on one/two/three heavy, heavy favorites.

So, contest-wise we don't want to be near any carnage.

It's one thing to parimutuelly bet a race with a possible losing favorite, it's another thing to do that in a contest-- esp. when down to one single entry... because:

IIIFFFF that risky favorite comes in the money anyway-- it means that "ONLY ONE OTHER horse in the rest of the entire field" can beat one's choice.

Even though Elvis sang against suspicious minds-- we'll stay with ours the way it is, thank you very much.

Therefore, we will not bet any race that might elicit a possible popular choice today. That imperative pretty much nixes all the decently-sized races today. However, this course of action is facilitated due to(thankfully) finding a nice lock in today's jump opener. In fact, it's such a ridiculously easy choice, that we won't tell you-- we'll let you read the pp's and guess which.

Another plus-- we get to skip a couple of blood pressure doses today, what with our selection being in the first race. As well as any rains IIFFF they ever arrive.

RACE 2--

five debuters
one one also-ran that wouldn't be the first to miraculously wake up in its second career race
the next two will compete with favoritism with one of the debuters:

a pacesetter off soft fractions for a cold Lukas barn
a closer on the outside post--off a tardy start in its debut-- it did rally ok... maybe if Asmussen whispered in our ear that he was sending we'd be a bit more encouraged...

RACE 4--

three main contenders in pp order:

1-- a better start would really help(blinkers could help, the rail may not)
2-- if able to rate, could take it all...although will be facing a much, much faster pace of race
3-- has a chance if able to bounce back to previous form

RACE 6--

favorite just screams: "suspicious bet sucker, lay off!!!"

RACE 7--

#'s 4,5,6-- all very suspicious as well
#9-- we like the trainer, and gather many other owners and trainers have liked this horse a lot too. Interesting to note though, that NONE of them have attempted a class raise in spite of good form & efforts-- this horse must have some physical defect-- not too serious, possibly more cosmetic than anything-- which can be largely controlled...enough that is, to permit racing.

RACE 8--

contentious race without a definite pace scenario-- chaos in other words.
As well, if one backs the favorite in the face of those frequent and long layoffs, one must guess that the initial dull comeback effort was ONLY due to either not taking to the Grass or just being a public workout to tighten its conditioning.
We're not prepared to bet one way or the other-- not even if you handed us freely some money(contest entry).

INTRA DAY--

Okie dokie, we're in like Flynn.
Saratoga Grass seems to be favoring early speed(besides inside) no matter how wet or dry.
J. Sheppard once again demonstrates his complete domination of the game on that surprise winner-- it only lagged 16 lengths behind our hero last time... unless if you wish to blame the extra weight carried today-- what's that, about 1 length per pound? LOL
The only questions(minor) for #3 were:
the layoff & Jockey McCarron off...we figured he was just returning the mount back to his regular rider. Otherwise, the apparent steep class drop was not an issue: Saratoga offered a purse for this race equal to that last Grade 2 affair(well ok, 2 thousand less)-- and ensured no steep competition with those conditions: only fairly recent winners...or confirmed losers. The only foe we were even mildly concerned with was the show horse.

NOW WE GET TO ROOT FOR FAVORITES TO FAIL: WE HAVE OUR PREDILECT SONG PRIMED AND SET TO PLAY AFTER THE FINISH OF EACH RACE TODAY "ANOTHER ONE BITES THE DON--ERR DUST".

ELIMINEE METER:

After one race: 1 entry eliminated LOL
After two races: same total...
After three races: 1 more entry eliminated...totaling 2 so far... At this rate, the bounced check entry purchases being returned today will beat the number eliminated during game play.
After four races: Unchanged total...this is like watching paint dry.
After five races: Ditto again...
After six races: Yippy ka yay mofos!!! ONE more entry bit the dust!!! Total 3 for the day now!!!
After seven races: Nothing changed....
After eight races: Looking ahead to the ninth-- contains three popular contest choices-- will they all finish in the money? Judging by today so far, others will finish first and second while the three faves deadheat for show. #5 late scratch-- votes will transferred to #2, for a total of 26%....#6 carries 3%. Never seen a day like this, everyone but the three stooges passing so far...
Ok, more stooges fall down, finally-- 3% down.
After nine races: 8% down so far.
End of day total: 9% gone today & 9% remain in the contest.

It's Lucky Show Suckup Giveaway Day at the Spa.

Race 2-- first three faves had it easy, as the other 5 foes suffered / underwent eventualities...
Race 3-- almost got the fave down, which closed up open rail to nip a coupla others for show...
Race 4-- the 'safer' of the three faves won-- could not get any of them to finish off... as two of their foes wiped each other out at the break.
Race 5-- another false fave sucks up for show.
Race 6-- ~~fairly strong second choice finishes third, behind first contest choice winner.~~ Never mind...off in another galaxy.
Race 7-- fave fest continues unabated.
Race 8-- nonwithstanding all those high mutuels, place & show horses were 2 of 4 morning line co-faves. No one in here made top vote list anyhow-- of those 3% & above listed.
Race 9-- Yippy ka yay mofos!!! #6, carrying the princely amount of 11 entries, went down. ONE time we were able to play our Queen anthem today!!!

2008 Del Mar Handicapping Challenge Thirteenth Day Wednesday July 30

2008-07-30T18:47:00.001-05:00

Of the three ML longshots, the winner, #2-- rated best. Problem was the value-- or lack of it. Last time we looked, all of them were offered somewhere in the Teens... maybe one of them was as high as 21.

25 would've caught our attention-- @ that level it's easy to drift up to cap level. Lower than 25 is often a different story-- low 20's can just as readily drift down to teens.

So, we took a different route: we made a place bet on #5(who just looked so strong on paper)-- its place price would've approximated or beat win mutuel if #1 finished out of the top two.
The intent was to gradually recover $200 from earlier failed bet cancellations.

Ehhh, we will all die someday anyhow.

Sometimes not being able to be around @ posttime(having an actual life) can work very well for betting ML longshots. We woulda had this one and one previous one who got pounded to 7-1, causing us to cancel the wager.

Saratoga Showdown Day 7 Wednesday July 30

2008-07-29T17:52:00.001-05:00

Top 10 Selections for 7/30/2008
R#   No Horse Name Percentage
2nd- 8 Akilina                 24%
9th- 7 Talkin Treasure   20%
9th- 1 Ice Cool Kitty       17%
4th- 4 Brooker D             11%
4th- 7 Storm Boot Gold     6%
8th- 7 Stormy West           5%
2nd- 3 Glory Gold               4%
3rd- 3 Kapanga                   3%
6th- 4 Summer Patriot       2%
1st-- 1 Dynaski                     1%

'Eliminee' Count:
1% after 1 race. Fave(& slight second fave placed) won the hurdles race, so those all likely just failed to sign in today... and who'd be ballsy enough to bet the jump race?
Second race in... absolutely glacial early fractions fractions: 22-3/5 first quarter followed by a turn time one fifth shy of 24 seconds...ominously beginning to look like a fave fest day. Feel sorry for whoever gets eliminated today.
4th race-- Don't know how that favorite was able to win the show photo from those others. That's the only maddening thing about this contest-- bad handicappers suck up like that, while a solid choice elsewhere gets whacked to the moon.
5th race-- a cursory glance at a results ticker(only prices, no names) might lead one to conclude favorites ran out; but the two consensus ML choices are in the money.
7% after 7 races
6th race-- horse we liked in here, #3, stumbled at the start, then was guided too close to early pace in our opinion. It did, however, save ground along the inside until running into traffic, then found its way outside & closed for third.
8th-- Finally some semblance of a slightly favored contest selection bites the dust. 1½ lengths separate the first 7-- only ½ for places 2-7.
12% after 8 races.
9th race will be key-- hopefully both faves will not hit the board together.
No can do. Our other choice, had we had multilple entries, won by open lengths in a hand ride as the second favorite.
Should go under 10% remaining entries by the end of the day. Little by little...
Tomorrow looks like more of the same as today. Sharp downturn in field sizes from opening week.
10th race-- Not worried at all about our upcoming choice in the final race. Usually we are, no matter how solid it is, esp. when not running until late in the card. We however, MUST be correct re #9 running back to its number two back(read our analysis below)-- just repeating last race number would not only make this race a total tossup, it would not even ensure an in the money finish.
#12 worth a shot at those odds.... not too much early speed in here....
odds just dipped.... certainly a more worthy candidate than the other debuter, #7-- at those comparable odds, that is...
Okie dokie, we win, at good odds too. Horse just looked too good on paper; #'s 10 & 5 took too much money to be disputing favoritism-- compared to how they looked on paper vs #9.

Track:
FAST

Turf:
FIRM

Turf Races:
3, 5, 6, 7, 8

Inner:
Set at 9 Ft

Mellon:
Set at 0 Ft

Plenty of scratches today, making for small field sizes, by normal / expected Saratoga standards. We don't expect very many eliminations today-- but of course we will always hold out hope. To that end, we will try to avoid overly popular(seemingly) candidates...although not at the expense of avoiding a true, solid contender.

We noticed many solid choices today(listed in race analyses below)-- plus we likely missed considerably more... we just ran out of handicapping time; as lots of races scratched down to very playable sizes.
There's a couple of false ML favorites-- in the 6th race for one-- but not enough to cause many eliminations today in our opinion; although we've set the plate for such a possible appetizer by staying away from the races which will likely attract the most attention...waiting instead until the very last one.

OUR SELECTION TODAY: 10TH RACE-- #9

WEATHER

~~Scattered thunderstorms might hit the last 2-3 races.~~ Rain arrival now delayed until nightfall.
edit: Weather.com predicts occasional / scattered thunderstorms from 4pm on, Accuweather from 7pm on....
We'll guess no rain before end of the card.

SOME "EARLY" THOUGHTS ON A COUPLE OF POSSIBLY ELIGIBLE RACES

RACE 2-- couple of key scratches, we will nevertheless pass this race... staying away from the favorite even though it has less competitors to deal with.
Many will likely be tempted by the smaller relative field size and favored status of #8... but this race could be a trap:

The experienced runners' figs are "way below par"-- thus making the race both vulnerable to decent debuters(they don't even have to be good-- they can be below average and still win), and to any experienced runner with a bad line that may suddenly wake up. At any rate, taking a small price & riding with the masses on such a runner makes little sense.
To boot, #8's comment line implies significant trip trouble-- we've watched the replay several times w/o seeing anything untoward. This horse does have two positives:
A-- Fast final fraction-- however, the first two fractions were very slow. B-- First Lasix-- could MAYBE mean it will dispute the pace-- preferable 'for this race' over the closing style displayed in its debut.

~~In total contrast to #8 sits #1:~~ scratched
A--it encountered trouble severe enough to kill any win chances-- not readily apparent from the fairly innocuous comment line.
B--it posted a killer internal fraction... a turn time almost 10 lengths the better of #8. Factor in the ground lost early, and this horse figures to be open lengths clear of its experienced foes.
This is a horse with value & likely dismissed by most contestants-- has a good prep race under its belt, Cornelio stays aboard...

Also of note-- a couple of the debuters here show outstanding work tabs & are trained by very smart connections-- example: #3: its trainer has 28% debut win mark from more than 100 starts.

Race 9-- edit this race should be a strong candidate for us, however we will avoid because there were no scratches. We will instead hope that the lesser contenders all step up to the plate enough to knock one of the two ML favorites out of the money. We can afford to try this because there should be plenty of other candidate races, judging from the field sizes after scratches.

There are four possible winners here-- irregardless of how likely / unlikely their individual chances.

#7: is our top choice..albeit the favored #1 sports a faster fig to #7's second-best in here. However, if we factor in for the trouble in its last race AND expected development / improvement from 3 to 4 years old-- #7 has the potential to post the largest fig jump. It has a versatile running style & is perfectly drawn on the outside for this 7F race-- it can keep tabs on everyone while staying out of potential traffic problems. Cross out its last '07 race-- where something very likely occurred that necessitated a long layoff-- and there's only one out of the money effort from 10 races.

Like we stated earlier, four have a win chance in here(+ another fifth one has a serious in the money chance), so nothing is carved in stone-- but we like #7's chances to hit the board.

#1: top fig(which can further sport an improvement jump from the advance to 4yo), Trainer Dutrow & ML favoritism will attract the most contestant entries of the day-- a big excuse to stay away if possible. Potential chinks: it's kind of under the gun from that rail post: either send or risk getting bottled up... and this is too long of a sprint to run w/o a breather.

#6: 2nd most eligible to post a 'large' fig increase: its latest useable sprint line was from second off a long layoff @ 7 furlongs w/ a jump from allowance to stakes as a 'new 3yo'. You can almost say the sky's the limit. @ 6-1 ML will offer great value / be dismissed by most contestants.

#3: a slight, slight notch below the top two; however-- that's off 2yo figs. It could surprise, but will have to be real fit, sharp AND ready to post a new career top(nonwithstanding its frequent layoffs)-- as its main competitors will likely do so. It will also need a clear trip from that post. Will offer some odds value-- but is a little less likely than the top 3 here...could just as easily be off the board.

#2: Budweiser longshot to fill bottom exotics slots. A slightly further cut below main contenders, although it's a Saratoga horse for course on its third race off the layoff. Its trainer has an abysmal 2008 record... horse will need to fire on all cylinders & get a great trip from that post to hit the board here.

It's too early to say yet-- before scratches & latest forecast-- but #7 is a good candidate for our contest entry.

Hate to endure practically the entire card before finding out if surviving though......

ANOTHER POSSIBLE PLAYABLE RACE

edit: several scratches here may cinch this as our race. There will be plenty of favorites today-- the one on the very last race may be more advantageous to back for the purpose of staying away from overly popular choices-- just by virtue of its late in the day timing.

Race 10--

#9: throw out last race-- against its preferred running style-- setting the pace as the inside horse of a three-way duel @ 6.5 Furlongs on the rail...on a day where the inside was not the best place to be. Although the early fractions weren't all that fast, it still wasn't able to relax or settle at anytime. We do like how it never stopped trying in the stretch, even after passed, as well also the energetic post race pullup. That race either sharpened its conditioning and/or proved how fit the horse was. Previous to that, its pace and final figs had been steadily ascending. A repeat of the race two back would decimate this field-- and it should get a similar stalking trip on the outside that will allow it to settle down / sit a bit during the early going.

Now don't go betting the farm on the nose-- a horse with a rating style is susceptible to any runaway pacesetter-- very possible here, w/ the presence of debuters. Now, that is not a likely occurrence because this horse is a quality stalker, able to track a very fast early pace-- but it's no guarantee for a horse drawn wide in a large maiden field. As well there're a bunch of entrants making their second career race after an outrun debut-- they could be anything.

RACE 6--

Idiotic entry labeling situation messing with post position numbers is totally out of control-- here they are in pp order:

3--- closer... young, rapidly improving horse throwing improving pace and final figs-- the ideal profile candidate for this type of race.

4--- closer... a bit like above candidate. Although at one year older, less eligible to post as big of a sudden improvement. It has been facing very slow paces-- so obviously, the faster the pace up front the more its chances improve-- although one never knows if a horse can handle a classier, faster pace until they actually prove it on the course.

2--- closer... susceptible as well to the kind of pace up front.

5--- closer... needs to show more numbers-wise to compete with main contenders here.

1a-- closer... needs fast pace up front for its late kick to be effective.

6--- closer / stalker / prompter... most eligible to steal the race up front. Possesses fantastic distance lineage.

7--- closer... the likely field trailer. Doesn't seem to win very often, but is capable on its best day & with a clear trip to take it all.

9--- closer / can stay closeup early / could take the lead with cagey jock aboard IF #6 passes on that opportunity... also eligible to win from behind with a clean trip.

Win contenders: 3,9,2,6

3-- qualifies as safest in the money choice.

Saratoga Showdown First Week's Summary

2008-07-28T22:00:00.001-05:00

STRATEGY CONCEPTS

The Saratoga Showdown is 100 times more difficult...and stressful.... than the downstate track versions. This is the first time we play this version-- or Saratoga itself for that matter; exception being 2yo races. We love baby races, and play them at all tracks possible.
But even though we live nearby, we tend to skip Saratoga-- because there are easier pickings elsewhere.
We think that for the most part, only extreme masochists enjoy Saratoga(maybe it's that we don't drink and gamble...LOL):

overnight fields overflowing with 16 entries, each / all razor fit & competitive(in spite of clouded recent form for some), uncertain / extreme / sudden weather swings, etc.
Followed by a next morning paring down of fields some by 1/3-1/2, change of surface, uncertain bias, etc.-- then a mad rush handicap of the card in 1½ hours.

Now contrast downstate: dry weather for the most part-- along with fairly stabilized bias-- accompany a handful of small fields that can be handicapped the day before. The few scratches the next day do not significantly alter the previous night's handiccapping for the most part. And most races have some overwhelmed, tired, etc. automatic crossouts,

At Saratoga, even small 5-6 horse fields tend to be very difficult to decipher -- usually they are so competitive, that anyone picked is close to a 50-50 shot to make or hit the board. Add to this uncertain weather, bias, etc. and you get the picture.

Next time we play Saratoga we will need quite a few entries more. Utilizing the binary system(2/4/8/16/and so on) we will decide between 32/64/128. That first number is a bare minimum, the last one will require that the contest return to its glory days of prize pools 2-3 times the present one.
Saratoga Showdown selecting often requires a lot balancing / hedging / covering different angles re prospective bias when the weather is unsettled(running styles / post positions); as well as balancing out play on non-favorites & the most popular selections that day. On one hand, one aims to NOT be on the most selected daily horses-- this is the way to survive when
large numbers are getting eliminated...BUT on the other hand, horses tend to win in larger percentages proportionate to their favoritism, so while playing non heavily favored horses makes a lot of sense:
a. one can quickly get eliminated-- to boot while most are getting a free pass-- by avoiding favorites and they don't cooperate by finishing up the track.
b. one can get away with such a strategy for a while-- but not for a prolonged period, much less the duration.

And so @ Saratoga one needs enough entries to be able to ride more on the main /strong picks & less on the ones that hedge / cover. When one is down to a few entries, one ends up dividing into equal(or very close to equal) size bets the entries-- which actually accelerates entry burn / loss rate: too high a % of entries ride on 'individually' dicier and/or riskier picks; even though 'collectively' those lower win percentage picks afford protection to the entire day's package of picks.

NOW, @ the downstate tracks the situation is not as difficult-- one can go quite a few days in a row, easily finding in each multiple strong picks-- safe & strong enough to carry all or half the total entries each. In fact, often one is conflicted over which 'lock of the day' to utilize. Therefore, one does need as many entries as @ Saratoga.

We are revising a bit our strategic advice "for when at Saratoga":

when starting with a low amount of entries-- let's utilize our present example of 8-- do not separate them, use them as if only one entry for the entire first week at least.
Here's why, using our present case as an example:

We performed just about as well as one can expect the first 4 days-- going 14-2... with the two losses attributed to trouble at the break. Still, our 8 entries had gradually become 5. Yesterday comes & we use two horses-- what happens? Another loss at the break for one of them. Down to three entries(despite a 15-3 record) & a forecast of rain 'after the start of racing' today.
Today we come up with two choices-- the stronger one in a large turf field though. Not wanting to ride two entries in a large field or on the weaker of the two, we force a third pick in a 5 horse field... which just fades out of the money. The turfer falls ½ length short, our lesser choice makes it. Had we skipped that short field, the end result would be identical:

1 single entry alive out of 8...overall record: 16-5

A strategy makeover is in order:

A-- With low number of entries, bet all on one single horse every day for at least the entire first week. In our case, so what if we'd lost along the way? What's the big difference between 0 & 1 entry left? Maybe today we could've made a one time exception, had we still had all 8 entries: 4 each on our main two picks.

B-- Henceforth @ Saratoga we will purchase minimum 32, but more likely 64 or more entries depending on prize pool size, esp. if subsequent Saratoga prize pool sizes return to their former glory days.
At those entry amount levels, today for example, we would have significantly higher percentage surviving ones than our current one eighth(same for most each of the preceding days).

FIRST WEEK SUMMARY

8/9 of all original entries have been eliminated-- that includes both those eliminated during contest play AND bounced bank transactions. Speaking of, there've been over 6 dozen returned transactions-- even worse, maybe 2/3 have been on 'already-eliminated entries'. 3,684 entries began the contest, we are now down to 3,611 official paid entries. BTW we may still see yet more returns when the contest resumes later in the week.

And still more rain is called for-- almost throughout the entire week commencing this coming Wednesday. But then again, it could always fizzle out, as occurred the past two days.

At the present elimination rate, the contest will / would end in 2 more weeks, give or take a day or two. So, this time next week our wrap up could state that the contest is down to the last surviving 50... another week later-- a remaining handful.

As a practical matter re the time we've personally put in-- while not being ungrateful-- we'd be very disappointed in not cashing in the top two. Yes, we could always find some kind of use for say, the next handful of placing prize monies... "as long as the contest didn't drag on for the whole meet". But the bottom third would make us question why even participate in the first place.
In other words, while wanting to advance our solitary remaining entry during the next 2-3 weeks: if the Great Carsoni appeared right now before us to inform that yes, we'll eventually cash in--but not above 8th place-- we would discontinue immediately. Previous Showdown pools have been double-triple this edition's size-- ~~making even 10th place somewhat palatable.~~ CORRECTION-- pool was distributed differently...here's a % comparison:

Rk#- Old -- New

1st-- 60% - 40
2nd- 15% - 20
3rd-     8% - 10
4th-     5% -- 8
5th-     4% -- 6½
6th-     3% -- 5
7th-     2% -- 4
8th-      1% -- 3
9th-      1% -- 2
10th-    1% -- 1½

Below first place, lower payoff %'s-- of the previous system-- were often made up for by the larger $$ pool sizes.
Although the bottom 4 placings were also disdainful-- esp. when a pool was not particularly well-subscribed -- still though, they compared in relatively favorable fashion with 1st place money of similar competing contests: 2½K for the various CDSN Eliminators, as well as the 5K of Hawthorne / Sportsman's Chi-Town Challenges...and NYRA's original version.
We used to enjoy those other contests as well-- often they'd be over fairly quickly; and even CDSN versions-- in spite of the lower prize-- were ok: several CDSN tracks ran simultaneously(and when one meet ended, another one would take its place), affording one multiple chances at seemingly all times of the year.

NYRA Showdown $$ declines can not be solely blamed on themselves-- our disgusting politicos contributed greatly. Blame Spitzer's prolonged attack while DA, which resulted in not only budget difficulties but a new phase of Albany draconian micromanagement.
But blame not only Spitzer-- his predecessor Pataki was the most incompetently arrogant political hack we've seen in a long time-- one example: he had appointed Bernadette Castro(of Castro Convertibles empire fame-- but don't go thinking she had been an able founder or president-- she just inherited) New York State Parks, Recreation and Historic Preservation Commissioner(payback for campaign favor$$$) then later attempted to pad the State Racing & Wagering Board w/ lackeys. He proceeded to fire the Chairman, then tried to fill his empty seat with Castro. She went before the state Senate for confirmation, and submitted her supposed qualifications-- among them: that she had built a horse path in Central Park!
You can't make stuff up like this folks-- ok, maybe this could happen in some resource-challenged out of the way boondocks...but in the capital of the world?!!?!
And the depressing sundry list goes on-- the state Congress is just so crooked, partisan, and worst of all-- inept & gridlocked beyond imagination.
We feel very, very strongly that NY City should secede from NY State.

No, Virginia-- we wouldn't even stick around to say, just automatically / quickly select the DRF or NYPost consensus choice-- for if that strategy didn't get us eliminated, it would also mean that it wouldn't eliminate most others :: the contest would outlast the meet & go to tiebreakers-- which likely wouldn't get us anywhere near the top 10. Very rarely does a contest outlast a meet though-- such a strategy would probably not allow us to survive the week-- it's why almost 90% are eliminated already.

Updated Prize Pool--$36,110:

1st- $14,444
2nd- 7,222
3rd-   3,611
4th-   2,888
5th-   2,347.15
6th-   1,805.50
7th-   1,444
8th-   1,083.30
9th-      722.20
10th-    541.65

CONTEST ENTRIES

Contest: 434 remain...of original 3,684...3,250 have bit the dust.

Personal: 1 of original 8 survives.

PLAN OF ACTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CONTEST

Contest should get down to the last 10 entries by middle to end of next week.

So, we will take this one week at a time. We will first concentrate on trying to make it thru this entire week. Once we accomplish this first step, we will like our chances very, very much.

It may seem like we don't have much of a chance, but we have supreme confidence in being able to cash in-- we've won this type of contest before--the more difficult one entry allowed only kind, to boot. One steady step at a time makes it up the mountain-- just staring at the top while at or near the bottom does not help anything.
However, being realistic, we also need to hope that during the week's six races our choice ALWAYS break alertly from the gate, in a straight line, AND no one else bumps it. Of course, we do want good racing luck during the subsequent running of each race-- but that can sometimes be avoided and/or compensated for. The toughest thing to overcome is a bad start on an oval that is not kind to deep closers-- as well for a speedster, such a start is often an automatic kiss of death. We will pay extra attention / try to avoid as much as feasible such a possible misfortune(or at least have some semblance of a chance of recovering from such a misfortune) by looking at two things:

1. ensuring others on either side of our selection habitually break well(at least seemingly so).

2. some of the lesser intricacies re post position:

a. has a horse drawn on the rail previously demonstrated no issues with such a draw?

b. maybe avoiding the most inside drawn frontrunner if several project to contest early pace... or at least ensuring such a beast does not show slow starts and is usually one of the first couple of breakers(in the pp's)-- a slow start may get it shut off & blocked from getting to the front. At least when drawn outside, such a misfortune has "some" chance for recovery.

In some ways, being down to only one entry might make things easier-- with multiple entries one is not always predisposed to ride them all on the one best daily choice, no matter how strong.

We will add one extra tool to our arsenal-- neural handicapping. We habitually handicap in a classic all-encompassing nature, incorporating all disciplines possible: adjusted figures, advanced pace, class, form(particularly so), individual paceline selection(particularly so as well), statistics, connections, bias, etc.
What we do stay away from is all manner of black box & neural software:
we make our choices-- live and die with them, eat from their profits, take full responsibility for them-- ergo we disdain 'liberal handicapping" LOL.
That being said, we are not above adding tools to maybe help eliminate or fixate on one or two entries in a large field, help break ties in contested affairs, etc....and Saratoga does have plenty of large fields and contested affairs.

One of our programs has a decision module-- which does ok as far as those types of things go-- but which we've just noticed is particularly effective when we manually select individual pacelines. Of course, it's a lot more work / defeats the automation purpose... but it works.

We will proceed as usual initially, endeavoring to find a very solid choice with our comprehensive analysis. If we don't find something too tempting, or conversely-- when/if we find multiple strong choices, then our selection module will aid us in a final decision.

Let's hope that Belmont's version is more subscribed. And actually even--that a Fall Belmont edition is held, instead of a break / wait until Aqueduct.

2008 Del Mar Handicapping Challenge Twelfth Day Monday July 28

2008-07-27T22:55:00.001-05:00

Contest Update ¼ of the way thru-- personally, we've banked 6 out of 11 unplayed races needed. We should have two more-- we erred twice in not canceling a bet in timely fashion(longshot ML odds going off @ single digits)-- we further need to make up that extra minus -$200 somewhere along the way.

No longshot's won yet for you? Do NOT yet fret about the standings... have bit of patience...and take comfort in the realization that anyone so far with any kind of plus bankroll is an automatic contest no-chance. Then, among the current minus bankrolls, cross out the chances of all those with non-$100 multiple amounts. Further crossouts would be those @ more than minus -$500:
firstly-- not all races have had live longshots, IF ANY AT ALL...
but more importantly, only max. total of 3/4 of the races can be played-- so anyone who doesn't bank unplayed races now, will not be allowed(mathematically speaking) to play any races at the end-- & if to boot they've wasted picks on low-odds entrants, they're just too OUTGUNNED-- sporting a bb gun against uzi-toters-- to stand a chance in this contest.
Another appropriate analogy could be a Nascar race: drivers who don't ration their alloted fuel maximum(31 of 42 max racecards), and/or stick mostly to the slow lane on the track(slow lane = lower prices, passing lane = longshots).

Just betting good value is not enough "for this contest"... one needs "extreme value".
Every CAP longshot winner is worth 3 low-teen odds winners / 4-6 high single-digit odds winners,
TWO CAP winners are worth FOUR high-teen / low 20's winners!!

Two longshots in here--

5- NO CHANCE

3- SMALL CHANCE

We'll expound a bit later on...

#5 has consistently put up figs open lengths worse than almost all these... to the point that its career best would place it at the rear of this field.

#3 could find itself either on a lone lead or pressing the flank of one other not so fast speedster... then again, speed on this surface & 6½ furlongs may well be a dicey option.
It does have competitive figs that at least place it in the ballpark... so it's not necessarily money automatically down the drain.

We'll take a shot, but will demand cap odds, not just 'kinda longshot' odds similar to its Morning Line.

10 min to post. absolutely nothing going on.... everything in the teens and below-- #3 @ 10-1....

these are the odds offered w/ 5 min. remaining:

11 --- 12 4 17 7/2 7 7 2

We pass-- & now have 7 unplayed races banked-- out of 11 needed.

See you Tuesday nite.

Saratoga Showdown Day 6 Monday July 28

2008-07-27T18:39:00.001-05:00

Updated Prize Pool--$36,330(more returned transactions keep trickling back every day-- expect Wednesday or maybe Thursday to be the last day for that):

1st- $14,532
2nd- 7,241
3rd-   3,633
4th-   2,907.40
5th-   2,361.50
6th-   1,811
7th-   1,453.20
8th-   1,089.90
9th-      726.60
10th-   544.90

NOTE: what's really bad about the bounced transactions now-- practically all are on "already-eliminated" entries.

Patience is THE greatest virtue:
ONE racing week is not even complete yet, and already 5/6 of all entries are gone...More than 3,000 of the original 3,684 went POOF!!!

WEATHER:

Starting @ the second race, scattered & occasional thundershowers thruout the afternoon & evening.

Although we suspect it might be more of the same as Sunday-- no substantial rain materializing.

Half the ten races are Turf affairs-- we wonder if there's any temptation to switch surface in light of the weather...not just today-- rain is expected almost every day next week starting on Wednesday-- which to boot holds the rescheduled steeplechase.

Additionally of note, there's one race with a small 5-horse field. We're not getting our hopes up yet, as previous small fields for this meet have been competitive all around.
This boutique meet is unlike regular meets in the sense that just about everyone who ships up here comes with bad intentions...to run fast-- unlike the downstate meets where tired & outmatched entrants that one can draw a line through are found more often.

We start today with 3 surviving entries from an original 8. That may seem kinda shaky, but we're actually handicapping solidly:

we've selected 18 different horses so far--½ outright winners btw-- and only 3 have gone down... all 3 of them due to an unlucky mishap at the start.
One got totally wiped out in bumper car fashion at the break, the second was a frontrunner drawn inside who broke behind the field and then couldn't get thru, the third one yesterday acted up in the gate & reared up at the start.

TODAY'S PIX(1 entry each)--

4th race --- #9.. our favorite pick, but still carries risk in such a large field. Other contenders: 3,2,1.

10th race- #11. IF surface stays dry, 12 has a win chance.

3rd race--- #2.. This pick-- as well the spreading out to multiple choices-- does not make for a lot of handicapping sense.
BUT it works for various strategic & hedging purposes.

It's a fairly competitive field-- everyone has a chance to win...although we downgrade a bit the chances of #'s 4 & 1. Ergo, all have a chance to win-- & as well to finish totally out of the money.
We don't like to see its possible dueler drawn to its outside & @ demanding 7 furlong distance. Still, it could also find itself on a lone lead-- but then again, the track could be wet and tiring...w/ maybe the inside part worse off.
Or, more likely-- the track could be sealed....still dry.... favoring speed.... the inside the better part to be.
It is a 5 horse field(3 out 5 qualify... & a late scratch would practically cinch things).... balancing out the larg(er) fields of our other selections.
It won't be the favorite...balancing out the possible favoritism of our other two choices.

We don't like to spread out, but this is not Belmont or Aqueduct. When the weather stabilizes, along with surface & bias... & we find a strong choice in a small (or even medium-size) field; that'll be another story.

INTRA-DAY

2nd race coming up--- still no posted selection stats... how will first race be handled re the non-pari winner? Either counting it + the official win & place finishers only...or count all 4, adding the official show finisher...

Still no top selection stats, although the eliminated stats ticker is down 2% now...

3rd Race-- 3 entrants among top ten choices today.... as long as all three do not beat the other two, we have some eliminations. If not, most entries pass today.

Top 10 Selections for 7/28/2008
R# No Name                     Percentage
3     5     Wanderin Boy   32%
3     2     Mr. Umphrey     16%
9     3     Desert Key            10%
9     5     Kodiak Kowboy   8%
3     3     Gold Trippi             6%
8     3     Windy                         5%
1      1     Tergesti                      5%
4     9     Blitzen Too             4%
10 11    Irish Bride                3%
1      4    Overextended        2%

#2 took 100 entries with it.. 1/5 gone today.. survivors down to 1/8 of starting number.

race 4: we're very comfortable with #9-- drawn just outside of its main competitors, will be able to easily track them. Should post a big fig jump both from being lightly raced / still growing and this, its third race off the layoff. Handles the soft turf well...no chinks in its armor. As well it's meeting a lower level of competition than in its last race. This filly could turn out to be a very good one down the road.
Of course, in a large field all kinds of trouble can appear....

Can't believe down to last entry. Each lost by ½ length-- one faded a bit too much, the other fell a bit short of catching up-- got middled out.

¼ entries down so far today.....

We could've just blindly put our three entries on any three in the 5-horse third.... minimum one and likely two entries would've survived...

No rain so far.... our remaining entry in the 10th, moves up on off-going... not necessary though.

1/3 gone today so far... 1/9 overall entries remaining...

Race 10: looks like a late scratch occurred-- #13. Not a contender at all, by any stretch of the imagination, but we'll take any help-- no matter how trivial.

Ok, we scrape by.

No rains.... speed did well on wet Turf.... quite a few prices...

We'll start another post w/ a weekly recap later tonight.

2008 Del Mar Handicapping Challenge Eleventh Day Sunday July 27

2008-07-26T23:42:00.001-05:00

Race is a tossup, so we demand value-- three longshots in here are very live: 9,3,2.

See you just before posttime.

Yeah, #2 won....@ 7-1 LOL. There were really no longshots in this race: one reached 20, another one 30-1 only when loading and/or w/ the post-start dump.

Patience, my friends... patience.

Saratoga Showdown Day 5 Sunday July 27

2008-07-26T18:31:00.001-05:00

Saturday was a fave feast day-- and only 1 of every 11 entries was eliminated. For the contest so far, a bit less than 2/3 are gone. Today looks more encouraging in that respect-- only a couple of absolute layovers seem to loom; field sizes are probably the smallest since opening day, although by just a little bit. Things could still turn out ok after all, IF few scratch out.

With the improved weather finally here to stay for a little bit, Sunday & Monday portent well / seemingly will give us a break from spreading out on our contest betting. So far, we've utilized 16 horses-- as many as 5 in one day; and would like to cut down to just 1 or 2 a day.

Later...

~~UPDATED WEATHER FORECAST CALLS FOR MORE RAIN, FROM @ THE SECOND RACE ON.~~

~~We will endeavor to detect someone in the first race best-advantaged by the likely hard-sealed, still-dry going.~~

~~RAIN NOW DUE MIDDAY, BEFORE RACING STARTS!~~ CONTINUING UNTIL MIDNITE....RETURNING MIDDAY MONDAY.
Racing started, no rain yet.

Let's see what scratches and possible surface changes bring as a result.....

Track: GOOD

Turf: YIELDING

RAILS: ALL @ ZERO feet

RACE 5- OFF TURF @ 7 FURLONGS!!!

Preliminary, previous night's thoughts on the card:

Race 3--

#8 could win IFFF able to rate, IFFF able to handle fast pace of race, IFFF keeps increasing figs. Orrrr, could finish off the board. And at 6/5 Morning Line will carry so many contest entries on its back.

#3 could win IFFF last race's lower fig was due to bouncing after wet track effort... AND is now ready to beat previous fig, which was career top. As well, it could be advantaged by any falling precipitation today.

Race 6--

We believe the Morning Lines and Speed Figs of the 3 non-debuters are erroneous.

#1 Our top choice of the three-- @ 12-1 ML!!!!!! Faced VERY fast pace, then closed into LOTS of traffic.... was outrun hopelessly far back / obviously had little chance; so it looks like the rider just used the race as a training tool--taking two / three separate small closing bursts in stretch.
How fast was the pace of that race? Well, as a hopelessly outrun closer, it posted a pace figure 2-3 seconds faster than the other two.
All in all, it was a good schooling race in many other ways-- was able to break from post 9(of 12), angle in a bit, thread its way thru horses...

#5 Consensus choice because of fast closing fraction vs upset Schuylerville winner... but its pace time was horrendously slow; and that just doesn't cut it with us: anyone can lope along for one quarter, then follow that with ONE single fast furlong-- big deal.

#3 we believe its high speed fig is false... while putting up a pace figure even more horrendously slow than #5... and a much, much slower final fraction. For those of you who bet Exchanges, this horse is a LAY(bet to lose) candidate.

CAVEAT: this doesn't mean #1 is a lock... unless it demonstrates ability to set the pace, its running style leaves it very vulnerable to any of the debuters able to throw a quality early pace. As well, it could also get hopelessly bottled up inside.

Race 10--

We highly encourage you to demand value here. Yes, #4, the people's choice, can win-- but so can a handful others-- some at astronomical odds.
This race is tricky to handicap by the numbers:

a. one entrant's number may be false.

b. even more significant--some of these with seemingly inferior numbers have had long breaks in which to grow considerably-- predicting the new higher number is paramount.

Win contenders:

7-- double digit morning line odds and one of our favorite jocks holds a lot more appeal than the favoritism of the next one. Toss the Belmont, add expected, normal growth improvement....and you have a contender. Sheets adherents will readily recognize a known pattern: a series of a good effort following a bad one.
4-- prone to bad starts / slow early going...although hard to play against Asmussen's current hotness.....
6-- has a small chance to scamper off alone... not too likely though.
1-- we suspect his last improved number is false. If we're wrong AND it continues with another jump in number, it could take it all. Or it might get bottled up inside the whole race. 6-1 is a borderline morning line that can drift down or up...demand value.

The next two are more worthy of the lower slots of your super ticket-- although at over 30+ to 1 would also merit win value:

2 & 5-- similar reasons as #7.

Next one is not a win contender, but w/ a 30-1 morning line & Bill Mott training, leave out of the bottom of your tris and supers at your own peril.

And the last one is a Lay Candidate for those of you Exchange players: #3... inferior speedster to #6.

See you at scratch time.

One more race:

Race 9--

This is a race lacking a committed "pacesetter"; ergo, this is a rider's / shrewd connections race: ripe for the taking by a go-getter.
It is also a race where the chasers / pressers / stalkers show slower early pace numbers than the closers; and to complicate things, a couple of the closers are vulnerable to a slow early pace. As well there are some versatile ones in here capable of employing the different running styles.

The closest candidate to a pacesetter is #6-- who prefers to either: lay just off a true pacesetter, chase a lone pacesetter, or stalk a two-horse duel... in other words-- it prefers to relax a bit early on, instead of tackling pressures and responsibilities from the get to.
However-- the early pace numbers it's been involved with have for the most part been so abysmal-- that we could make a case for it being a closer... a closer so outclassing its fields that it wound up close to the early pace; whether naturally and/or by design from shrewd jockey tactics.

Next-closest candidate is #7-- but in only two examples in recent pp's: one was in a wet track, where the closer-than normal running style can either be ascribed to a particular affinity to the going and/or being rushed up after the poor start because often it's hard to close on sloppy going and/or the running bias then was not kind to coming from behind.
In the(only) other example shows pressing / dueling a rather slow pace-- but that can be assigned to rider tactics, as was caught wide with most of that small field being fairly bunched up early.

Keep in mind too, that both those are the two outside horses-- not so fast early-- vulnerable to jock tactics to their inside. Especially from:

#2 is maybe the actual fastest early horse-- coming from sprints and from stalking a very fast early pace in a route. However, the jock is not the gunho gate type...hopefully Allen Jerkens will properly counsel her... and continue the 'giant killer' lore. And it seems to be advantaged by wet going.

#1 could be called a stalker-- or maybe not-- in both examples the early pace was so horrendously slow, that maybe it just found itself there by chance(more likely jockey tactics-- notice the shrewd riders aboard).

#3 Nick Zito and Chop Chop can shrewdly read a Racing Form-- and notice the relatively fast early fractions their closer can throw in spite of the laid back running style..

#4 mimics #3, though to a lesser(slower) degree-- and is getting blinkers...

¿ See how all of a sudden, depending on connection thinking, this race could even turn into a multi-horse pace duel?

Further complicating the handicapping of this race is that NONE of the entrants fulfill the most important factor in these type of races: improving numbers(#2 may qualify, but is numbers are very slow compared to the rest...#6 qualifies 'slightly'); some even show up and down numbers.
For instance:
#7: maybe it bounced from previous wet effort... or maybe the slower fig was due to the faster early pace. May do well with changed, wet forecast...
#1: regressed last time-- maybe that was due to the slow race pace-- otherwise, previous number takes this.

In light of that, we can perhaps reward consistency-- those who throw their usual number irregardless of conditions-- in order "and level" of fastest to slowest:

5,
then 6,
then 3 & 4... the latter seemingly advantaged by wet going.

All that leaves us with 5 & 6 as our base-- with 1 & 7 capable of either winning or finishing in the back. Disregarding odds & profit, an exacta player would thus bet: 5 & 6 with each other and on top of 3 & 4, then 1 & 7 with each other and on top of 5 & 6.

Let's see if any scratches simplify and/or point to someone specific.

In order for us to be able to key on one for the contest(more likely either 5 or 6), we'd need one each to be scratched from the following three pairings:

1&7
5&6
3&4

CONTEST SELECTIONS:

Boy, what unsettled weather. We don't care if it rains one way or the other-- but as long as it 'predictably does one thing or the other'. NOT this will rain and doesn't / won't rain and does... ir it's gonna rain, let it start also in the morning-- instead of part the races get rain only.
NOW...if one could input a selection right up until posttime... then no complaints.

2 entries 3rd race: #8 jockey Alan Garcia-- an underrated jockey(at least by lofty Saratoga standards) who has been riding very, very well both here and at Monmouth-- came thru yesterday in a similar situation for us-- rating a speed horse vs a very fast pace. We need this horse to rate rather than duel because 3 & 6 can get crazy up front with a pace considerably faster than what it's put up so far in its brief career. So the main question mark is: can it rate vs a very fast pace(not just the slower paces it's been able to rate against in the past).
As a plus our hero handles the off-going. Speaking of-- #3 could well turn out to be a mud lark-- & just romp home. That is, if it recovers from the last race bounce...otherwise could bring up the rear as well.
The obvious minus is that our selection may well be the most popular today by far. EDIT: carries 42% of all entries today.

3 entries 5th race: #14 a nice, safe, consistent choice near the top in almost all of the various numerical categories. Has only been out of the money once, is trained by on fire Trainer Dutrow, handles the off-going, has a versatile running style... Big plus: not highly regarded in the Morning Line.
EDIT: has become top contest choice in this race.

So, we're balanced vis a vis the public: once with & once against.

BTW we tossed our 6th race choice, #1, due to the weather uncertainty. Could be stuck on a bad rail, on a wet course over which it's totally unproven.

INTRA DAY--

~~GGRREATTTT start to the day: 1A, carrying 7% of entries, off the board~~. OOPS...sure hope today doesn't turn into another disappointing favorite feast, like yesterday. 5% eliminated after 1-- that's mostly from those failing to sign in today, than from losing first race picks. Today's top selection numbers:

Top 10 Selections 7/27/2008
R# No. Name               Percentage
3     8     City Roar         42%
10 4      Pyro                    13%
1     1A    Yelt                      7%
9    5      Mamb.in Sea. 5%
2    2      Cribnote            4%
5   14     Stars. Cruiser 4%
5   1A    Boss Tiffany    3%
9    3     Amped                 3%
10 3     Mint Lane          2%
3    3     Critical Cathy 2%

KEY CONTESTANT RACES--

3rd-- is very crucial, w/ the 1st & 10th choices.

A couple of others have a couple of top ten choices each as well:

10th, 9th, 5th.

Race 2-- Yo!, WCFields! How you can make odds-on favorite a maiden with a closing style against 5 debuters @ 5.5 Furlongs beats us: Top selection #5 today?!!?! We've spent hours and hours handicapping...precisely to avoid having to select such a horse. We coulda saved all that time...jeez....

Race 3-- Here we go yo, here we go.... 3/5...Would you sacrifice 2 of 5 entries so that 42% of all remaining entries tumble in just one race? We wouldn't. We actually thought a little bit of splitting the two entries between 8 & 3, the actual winner.

Real mixed feelings now... we'd better be very careful the rest of the way.
Actually, in a lot ways-- having too many entries can be needless / a hindrance-- a single daily entry on the best bet of the day can work well: barring bad racing luck.
And Saratoga is the toughest / most unforgiving of the three NYRA tracks. With the other two-- there are always plenty of 5-6 horse fields to find succor in.

We should be somewhere in the teens percent surviving contest entries.

For whatever it means-- out of 18 horses played to date we've had 3 losers-- each loss was due to a start problem.

Race 5: we'll take favored status as a real strong sign of confidence. We may even end up @ odds-on, from the looks of it.
Good... we just wanted a decent start-- as long as the start warn't an issue, the numbers ensured a good finish.

After 10 of 11 races-- 17% overall remaining, 54% down today.

Something to think about: more than 3K, of original 3,684 are out already.

2008 Del Mar Handicapping Challenge Tenth Day Saturday July 26

2008-07-25T22:48:00.001-05:00

Nothing of value, nothing of merit. Pass today.

Saratoga Showdown Day 4 Saturday July 26

2008-07-25T20:50:00.001-05:00

Top Selections for 7/26/2008
R# No. Name Vote %(including scratches' votes)
9     1     Ginger Punch 67%
8     5     Abraaj                     9%
4     5     Unbr. Heart         7%
1      5     Rollers                     6%
2     3     Munnings              1%
8     1      Thor's Echo          5/6%
6     6     White Tie                3/4%
7     4     Wait a While          2/3%
1      8     Benny the Wtr.    1/2%

We're certainly and MOST willing to sacrifice a single entry(Ginger Punch)-- along with over 2/3 of present entries!!!

Prize Pool--$36,390:

1st- $14,556
2nd- 7,253
3rd-   3,639
4th-   2,911.20
5th-   2,365.35
6th-   1,819.50
7th-   1,455.60
8th-   1,091.70
9th-      727.80
10th-   545.85

PS re prize structure: Looks like more failed bank transactions keep returning-- over 1½ dozen today-- some 4-5 dozen since the contest start. Expect to see this continuing trickle into Monday & maybe Wednesday finally. As well we wouldn't be surprised to learn that some are due to disgruntled contestants calling their bank(s) to stop payment:
some wise guy could say, buy a bunch of entries-- and bet them all on just one horse each of the first few days....with the hope of having a lot of live ones.
See, after just one week of play the contestant pool should be down to the last 15%...maybe even only 5%. Such a wise guy would then have a very, very strong, advantageous hand...and if he fails, he calls his bank to block transaction or stop payment. Furthermore, if he's really wise, he won't pay any Stop Fees... or at most just 1. What a way to take a free shot!

But hey, NYRA shares the blame for changing processor(& thus credit card acceptance) in order to save a few bucks.
In fact, NYRA didn't even need to use anyone else other than Google Checkout(or similar other competitor)-- not only the cheapest option, but the one with the most diversified menu of payment options. That is one of the reasons the number of entries is a small fraction of previous contests-- apart from poor PR, inadequate budgeting & mediocre software utilized.

We would love to run this contest-- we would have prize pools in 7 figures dwarfing present 5-figure levels.

~~We won't update prize structure until end of next week...what's the use? Anyhow, it's only a few dollars less @ each level~~. And besides, we're going to sweep the top spots-- we've already spent that 25-30K.

We begin this fourth day thusly:

CONTESTANTS-- 60% already gone. As we've stated before, we need to see an avg. elimination rate of 17% daily so that the contest ends before the meet(thus avoiding tiebreakers). So far, the numbers have been: 24+, 29+, 25+ the first three days.

PERSONALLY-- 5 of 8 entries alive. We have played 11 total horses-- over ½ have outright won / 2 have finished unplaced(although w/ excuse: both got wiped out at the start)-- for a positive across-the-board ROI...which mimics almost all non-real money contests we enter. We need to hire someone to follow us around and bet our contest choices.
We feel very confident in light of above for accomplishing it in the face of trying weather / uncertain track conditions & @ the home of large fields & graveyard of champions / favorites. We will post a detailed summary after the last day of each racing week, Monday.

WEATHER-- Clear the rest of the way today & tomorrow....UNTIL the last ¼ of the card. That arriving rain will continue into the night, then fall on and off both Sunday & Monday. Following that, Tuesday will be dry & Wednesday will see some rain... & the end of that weather system.

OUTLOOK FOR TOMORROW-- Large fields, which may or may not stay large depending on whether Turf racing gets canceled because of the pending late wet weather.

HEAVY FAVORITES / LAYOVERS-- A handful loom boldly.

See you @ scratch time.

UPDATED WEATHER:

No intra-card rain today, tomorrow, or Monday(only tonight-early morning). btw Turf rated GOOD today.

So, all Turf racing should proceed as normal, at least today & Monday.

Next week: rain forecasted for Wed thru Sunday.

SURFACE:

Only remaining question mark remains whether the track was sufficiently worked on, aided by sunny weather yesterday and now, to even out all negative features-- to wit: is rail and/or overall inside ok now & re overall course, is early speed not disadvantaged today... One degree further: are inside and/or early speed actually advantaged?

One possible contest single-play solution would be to play a quality chaser / stalker / presser drawn just outside the main speed.

SOME PARIMUTUEL LONGSHOT POSSIBILITIES-- Mind you, we're posting this before scratches, but we just don't have the time to wait until NYRA is good and ready-- or the inclination to subsequently do a mad, headless chicken handicap of the card just prior to posttime.

The two route Turf races-- 5 & 7-- afford very possible scores...not just due to the large field sizes, but each for its own reasons:

5th race: in this claiming race the experienced turf horses cannot beat the par time, so the winner may well be not only the lucky recipient of a good trip, but as well one of the surface debuters-- particularly one with adept soft ground lineage(& of course, the requisite physical conformation)...

continued.....

FIRSTLY THOUGH, CONTEST PICKS:

Races today are for the most part contentious--doh-- & more importantly: there are possible chinks in today's projectedly-huge favorites...

We're spread out to four choices... hopefully, if we've guessed correctly re how the track will play today, then tomorrow & Monday we'll be able to key on only one or two.

Right off the bat, we've got two of five entries on:

Race 1: #5 We're just too tempted by its top early fig and overall speed fig-- both open lengths better. ALTHOUGH we are worried over seeing only short works off the layoff-- where are the stamina & fitness-building longer works? But then, who are we to tell Barclay Tagg how to train a horse? As well, we'd've preferred it be drawn outside its main speed threat #8-- for both possible positive outside bias present today and being able to relax better on the duel.
The keys here will be two:
a. the surface NOT being unkind to early speed
b. former rider Coa on main adversary & "the only other entrant that can keep up early".... Is he hell-bent on a hot pace duel...or maybe wishes to take back early?

The remaining three choices each carry a single entry, and two of them, unfortunately, will be heavily favored:

Race 4: #5 As long as the pace doesn't get too hot here, we'll take it. Its main speed adversary, which could cook things a bit-- especially the very first quarter-- is #7. As well there are other live ones in here, such as 1A, 2, 6,7... main reasons why we downgraded this horse from 2 entries originally. ML fave.

Race 8: #5(2nd ML fave) We're banking on the connections here being smart enough to overcome the projected suicidal early pace here: Jockey Alan Garcia has been riding very well lately, & Trainer McLaughlin seems to have turned things around very positively. So the question mark becomes:

Is this horse rateable enough to lay a few lenghths back(or conversely able to lay close and not get burned). BTW another live horse in here, for similar tactical reasons-- besides others, is #7.

Race 9: Yeah, everybody and their dog will be looking to pick #1(the day's minus-pool fave). BUTTTT.... what if the inside is dead today.... what if it gets goaded into a speed duel with the projected lone frontrunner-- & maybe to boot today's surface is unkind to early speed?
Because, an expensive horse like that sometimes just has very little incentive to win a race-- what's "another" Grade 1 win add in value whatsoever? Also, should things not go well early...say a bad start...the connections aren't going to risk anything by say, whipping it like crazy to catch up-- remember Big Brown's Belmont Stakes example.

In conclusion: running-style wise we're covered with both speed burners & other versatyle ones that can both rate & duel for the lead. We ride on three projected heavy faves(maybe one, in the fourth race, becomes lukewarm co-fave instead) & one likely second favorite. This is NOT to our liking-- we like to root favorites going down / taking many entries with them-- but we also need to be realistic: it's hard enough to get ONE heavy favorite, not to win, never mind being out of the money... but several of them ALL "being out of the money"? So, we're hedged-- if the public advances today we ride along(& avoid elimination by trying to be too clever)... but at a single vote, we can root lustily for a heavy favorite to take a jump into the infield lake.

We'll be back w/ our promised comments / advice re the two grass routes today.

Interesting first race: Dominguez, aboard the speed of the speed, takes back behind THREE duelers early.... then closes up the inside alongside the eventual winner....BUT hangs a bit in the end. I think we were right: Barclay Tagg SHOULD have put in some "longer workouts".

The two route Turf races-- 5 & 7-- afford very possible scores...not just due to the large field sizes, but each for its own reasons:

Race 5: Yes, #8 is the one to beat, BUT "there are many live ones in here" AT A PRICE! "For a sufficient price we can disregard question marks and slight weaknesses"!!!
#1 learning to rate makes it very dangerous-- the post could either be its salvation or downfall... good chance of the former, as it'll likely be disrgarded by most the other riders here..
#2 could be anything
#5 don't disregard Mark Shuman
#7 projected longest shot in here...tasty....
#9 was hindered by slow pace last out.... odds clouded a bit in light of number of tries so far...
#6 can fill your lower tri & super slots...

Race 7 next...........

Race 4-- Kinda regretting taking #5 here... poor value--- many live ones at a price...will have to improve measurably to stave off the others.....may likely do so-- but at that price....

We'll take that second...kudos nevertheless to the connections...taught the horse to close. and YOU should've gotten that TRI using our choices!

Can't get faves to lose today-- we need Ginger Punch to fall in the 8th(no pun intended)-- otherwise most everyone gets a free pass.

Race 7:

Supers & Tris: key 1,5,6,7,8 w/ 3,4,10 in the lower slots.

Unlike the 5th, where missed the place horse, #3, this race is more agreeable to catching the super-- its'9 furlong distance separates the classy ladies from the cheap hos: easier to overcome bad racing luck / tougher to steal with subpar early fractions...

Only 5% eliminated halfway thru the card....6% after 7 races...8% after 8......9% after 10...

Missed the place horse in both 5th & 7th....

Race 8: #7, our second choice completely wiped out at the break....never passed anyone else afterwards...

Race 9: We started to cheer when 'they' almost got 'her'-- completely boxing her in... leaning on her coming out of the final turn into straightaway: our heart skipped a joyous beat when Robby Albarado on #7 leaned into her.... we really thought she was going to fall down, or at least finish out of the money.
BUT it was a valiant extricating effort, guided by Bejarano, that squeezed out a well-deserved win: almost like squeezing thru the eye of a needle.
We'd've been left with a coupla hundred surviving entries only, had she gone down.

Oh, well-- onto tomorrow-- and all our entries survived unscathed. Proportionally, more than 5 of every 8 entries are eliminated after this fourth day.

2008 Del Mar Handicapping Challenge Ninth Day Friday July 25

2008-07-25T05:18:00.001-05:00

#3 has the ability to speed pop these by a dozen lengths early-- we're betting its crafty connections realize this and take advantage accordingly. We haven't been this enthused over anybody since opening day-- there's a flicker of light now at the end of the tunnel.

We got a refund-- price was too low. Anyhow, it didn't run the way we wanted....like the winning 7, who went wire to wire, outlasting 6 horse photo.

We almost pulled the trigger on longshot 5(also in the photo / loomed boldly / hung a bit)...but his odds were not that high(low 20's) as we wanted.

Saratoga Showdown Day 3 Friday July 25

2008-07-24T18:57:00.001-05:00

Slightly less than 30% went down yesterday-- including more than 2 dozen additional failed bank transactions(besides those of previous day)-- so we'll need to update prize structure to reflect the slightly diminished total prize pool:

Official number of entries so far: 3,6527 (¿maybe a handful of contestants bet the steeplechase yesterday, didn't / couldn't update, & thus were given a free pass?)

1st- $14,636
2nd- 7,318
3rd-   3,659
4th-   2,928.20
5th-   2,378.35
6th-   1,829.50
7th-   1,463.60
8th-   1,097.70
9th-      731.80
10th-   548.85

We have 7 of 8 entries still alive. A cursory glance at tomorrow's card leads us to believe we should find something safer to bet than today.

If we find something really safe and in a small field, we won't be disagreeable to singling it with all our entries... otherwise, we 'might' spread out to 2-3 horses-- a safe & almost necessary strategy given the unsettling weather & not totally clear resulting running surface profile; and especially so w/o the luxury of watching a race or two prior to betting. Yesterday was an illustrative case in point: we had two choices-- one a dominant speed, the other one the best closer. As well this particular wet surface can be conducive to unpredictable starts-- we won't go so far as to call it slippery, but it certainly is not as tractable as when normally dry.

Forecast calls for more steady rain thru the night, ending sometime between sunset & early commute time.

See you tomorrow after scratches.

UPDATED FORECAST:

TODAY-- After rains end, SUNNY & CLEAR the rest of the way...@ 7-8 hours of it before today's later post time.

SATURDAY-- More of the same, BUT the heavy rains return for the last 2-4 races of the card.

SUNDAY & MONDAY-- Resumed deluge continues.

Let's fathom a guess re surface & bias:

Turf-- still off until next week

Main-- speed-favoring... this attenuating as races progress during the next two days. Maybe today Friday the rail is still not the place to be.

Of course, this all could turn out to be the total opposite.

TODAY'S CHOICES:

2 entries-- Race 1: #2 Has a very versatile running style & being lightly-raced is the candidate most eligible to post the largest figure increase in here-- & not that it needs to: it already has the highest Fig. As well it has the fastest turn time & early pace-- the latter by open lengths-- it should be able to control the pace here & draw off. It also happens to be ridden by one of our favorite jocks: Leparoux; and as a further bonus, it's ONLY the second ML favorite.
The only question mark remains whether track maintenance has been able to even out the track(fixed the boggy inside).
PS #7 would be a contender for main choice normally-- but we just can't see anyone claiming from Bill Mott & improving the horse-- although Trainer Brown is very, very able.

2 entries-- Race 6: #4 Projects to be open lengths in the clear early-- & not that it has to: as it is able to rate-- IIFFF #1 does not duel with it...even if, we're not too worried:
rail could be dead today and #4 still sports the highest Fig here by open lengths.
As a further bonus, it's ONLY the second ML favorite.
The race boils down to those two. Our Trainer, Asmussen, has started the meet on fire-- while questions remain on whether main rival Trainer Levine can continue his tear from Belmont in light of a surprise inspection and testing of ALL his stock a few days ago. His charge here is getting first Lasix-- normally an almost automatic win bet-- but who knows(wink, nudge) now....

3 entries-- Race 7: #3 A stone closer with the highest Fig, turn time, & closing fraction. There is a chance #5 could scamper away early, but barring a bad trip, he should finish somewhere in the money at worst. The only chink is that it may find itself dead last early-- couple that with a runaway leader-- & the bet becomes fairly risky: assuming the pacesetter airs, ONLY ONE OTHER horse can beat it to stave off elimination. But there are some pluses to this bet:
a. it's not among the first three ML favorites.
b. it balances out the running styles(& possible running bias requirements) of the other two choices.

All in all-- we'd prefer not to have to spread out beyond two choices... but question marks linger re today's surface: has track maintenance been able to iron / dry out yesterday's boggy inside and tiring / closer-leaning track? If so, then the rail could reverse to the golden path from the place not to be.... and/or front-running bias could as well be back.

So, as it stands-- our selections are fairly balanced: 4 on second-ML entrants, 3 on a middle-priced entrant / 4 on frontrunners(one being very rateable), 3 on a closer. This way we're not totally done in by any extreme surprises-- from a golden or dead rail to an early or late biased strip.
Even better, none of our selections are the ML choice in any race... we can now start hoping for favorites to fall-- ergo many others being eliminated while we pass(supposedly).

In case you wonder why we didn't take advantage of the 3rd & 8th race's smallest field sizes today-- we found them too even-matched with plenty of unanswered questions. As well such races might attract the most entries... and the main trick in this contest is to survive when many get eliminated-- ergo avoiding popular choices whenever possible becomes paramount.

IN RUNNING:

First race kaput-- at least we're glad to see we became posttime favorite-- this way we also carried down in flames all scratch selections.

"From that race only" it looks like the inside is still NOT the place to be-- and closers "might" be advantaged.

Third race: just couldn't get either 4 or 6 to fall-- two of today's most popular choices. All in all, we're now below ½ original contest entrants.

Races 6-8 carry the bulk of remaining contestants-- will go along way in determining whether a substantial amount get eliminated today.

We need an average daily elimination rate over 17% if we want to see the contest end before the meet concludes-- so far, it's been 24+ & 29+...

Race 6--

As we said before, #1 with first Lasix will go a long way in determining if Trainer Levine continues on fire / with big figure jumps, from Belmont meet... or if he lays low(currently under big time steward scrutiny) / tails back down to earth.

We're presently very comfortable w/ our choice, as #1 is between a rock and a hard place-- does it allow #4 an open lead(or lay off and ease out to his outside) or rush up on the deeper rail to duel-- this to boot off a substantial layoff, while frontrunning in sprints not being its accustomed game.
Again, if it airs-- then Levine is a trainer to follow closely the rest of this meet... we kind of doubt this though.

Betting seems to be very guarded / lukewarm-- the big money can't make up its mind.... ehhhh..... they can always past post, depending on the early part.....

We would expect big money on a live Levine horse(that is also the ML favorite), so we'll take it as a plus for our hero #4's chances.

#1 inches ahead in favoritism at the end.... we'll take that...in case of some late scratch, more votes go on our foe.

Survivor Mantra: Win on the longshot, lose on the favorite.

Speaking of-- favorites are just not falling today... ehh... we'll take it... after the first race's disaster.

7th race-- Nice to see our handicapping vindicated, esp. on a non-consensus horse: we both win & get the favorite we totally disregarded off the board.
BTW Dominguez rode this horse extremely, extremely confidently.

IN CONCLUSION

Of three selections:

the first one, a pacesetter, broke poorly and brought up the rear all the way....the second one lost a three-way win photo...the third one won.
We lost two of seven entries--

"something than can bite one when spreading out too thin"...Originally last night, we settled on two races: the latter two; & this morning after scratches, we added one more--the losing first race.

BUT, until we get to dry, fast racing--we may have to spread out a bit-- not knowing for certain what the running profile / bias / conditions will be.

Take tomorrow's racing-- this clear weather will continue tomorrow BUT rain will arrive latter half of the card. We could suppose the track will be sealed, harder, drier....¿enough to solidify the so-so inside, enough to favor front runners? Or will it tend more towards these past coupla days? Turf racing-- off again in anticipation of more rain?

And let's not even get into Sunday / Monday-- deluge will return & continue for the next few days.........

Saratoga Showdown Day 2 Thursday July 24

2008-07-23T20:16:00.001-05:00

Contestant tally: of original 3684 entries, 6 have subsequently been voided due to bank transaction decline / failure, 882 others had a losing pick-- almost ¼ eliminated right away.

Prizes: for prize purposes 3678 paid entries seem to be the final official number-- for a total $36,780. Payoffs will thusly be:

1st- $14,712
2nd- 7,356
3rd-   3,678
4th-   2,942.40
5th-   2,390.70
6th-   1,839
7th-   1,471.20
8th-   1,103.40
9th-      919.50
10th-   551.70

As we summarized @ closing previous post--

as long as moisture keeps falling, we will look to favor closing ability, middle & outside posts, wet ability & pedigree... the counterpart to that: we will avoid inside posts, esp. when the horse may not be able to extricate itself from there; early speed will only be considered if classy, superior and esp. if projected to clear early.
And as always, popular choices will be avoided unless if totally legitimate or if needed for hedging purposes. As well we will always avoid being as spread out with so many different bets as yesterday-- unless if strategy dictates an exception.

It's likely safe to assume that tomorrow's card will be similar to today's re Turf races switching to dirt and many scratches abounding. Therefore, today we will only handicap in detail the three 2yo races... for the rest, we will only note things like wet pedigree & form, horse for course stats, key trainers, jock moves, etc.

Further additions to this post will be in a different color ink.

We're real worried Thursday may be a free pass for everyone-- first race, a steeplechase, was canceled; yet is present in the contest selection page. Unless every single contestant bypasses that race, contest organizers will be forced to pass everyone who bet it and doesn't bother to select again after the race is removed from the page. What are they gonna do-- assign all un-updated selections to the favorite in the next race?

If even one contestant fails to pick again after that race is removed, they'll be forced to pass everyone. We'd actually prefer if a free pass was given exclusively to the few involved instead. This is a major, major faux pas-- as the race cancellation was announced before the contest selection page for Thursday was up.

BTW all Turf races off...confirmed. Looks like the rain never really stopped, actually increasing in intensity... and 'may end around midday tomorrow'.
Even if 'no more rain fell the rest of the racing day', the surface will likely be a morass. So much moisture has fallen, there's just 'no place whatsoever' where the water could drain / go / be removed to... & even though the surface's been sealed, it's got to be well on the way to some combo of Everglades & chocolate pudding. We don't see how frontrunners(except maybe those on an open lead) and inside posts won't be compromised.
Those players who can dope out previous wet track winners "@ Saratoga", and as well specific pedigree stats for Saratoga wet tracks should do very well today and in the coming continued rain days.

Updated forecast calls for rain to resemble yesterday: continuous throughout the day, well into tomorrow.

Some other things we'll be mindful of today:

Trainer Richard Dutrow & Jockey Alan Garcia seem to be hot-- we'll give closer scrutiny to their horses. Garcia may be a real plus, as the crowd will likely not fixate on him-- but rather on the usual & tired marqueé names.

Projected pace duels: sometimes do not materialize... right from the start horses may slip, break tardily, bump, etc.-- leaving a lone one in control... this surface doesn't seem amenable to a quick turn of foot / catchup after some such incident.

We'll be back after scratches are posted.

First race has been removed from selection page. We're bracing for the howls from anyone eliminated because they originally selected something in that race & will not come back until after the day's racing has started.

Very little contest communication-- feel very much in the dark-- nothing posted / reported on the contest page.
For instance, something should be posted re today's cutoff selection time-- ¿maybe 1:20pm(15 min before post time of the first scheduled race today, which is actually the 2nd race)???
We didn't wish to risk any of our entries-- therefore went ahead and inputted all our selections before the normal 12:45 deadline. As well didn't venture a bet on the cancelled first race(possibly a free pass for the day?)... although very disappointed to have to do so before late scratches announced.
Re no late scratches-- are there none today, or are they purposefully delaying late scratch deadline because of the delayed initial post time?

Okie dokie-- two choices today(btw neither super-sure):

4 entries on: 5th race-- #8 is the superior speed, who drew good post outside its early rivals, placing it on the expected better part of the track today.
We have two concerns: although its wet pedigree is very good, it seemingly has not enjoyed sure-footedness; we hope this is balanced out by being outside the rest. The other concern is that we need for most of the debuters to not be the next coming of Smarty Jones.

3 entries on: 8th race-- #14 We go to the well again today with Trainer Levine: he has this horse on a very positive improvement curve...his whole barn has been on fire in fact. This horse has the best closing speed and if we've guessed correctly, should be favored by what we expect to be a trend today towards outside late speed. It's no lock though, there are plenty of other good closers in here.

Overall for today, we have mixed feelings--while we like seeing larger fields than yesterday-- we couldn't come up with anything remotely resembling a surefire bet.
Although we expect a much larger elimination percentage than yesterday, we might get swept with it as well.

After 3 races, over 20% gone already...should easily surpass yesterday in that regard. Looking for 50-70% original total being gone after 2 days.

Good news / bad news: we won the 5th but just couldn't get the 1 out of the money(ditto for the 4th race fave); the entry just managed to beat us out for favoritism-- additionally carrying whatever few votes were still on the scratched 3. Be back near day's closing.
You might question, judging by the win margin, why we classified it a a not sure bet...but to be fair, most of its opponents had early trouble while it sped away unharmed.

BTW Stopped raining after the 2nd race(the real second race, lol). We need to start thinking in what condition the surface "could be" tomorrow... thinking maybe all the visible water will be gone...wondering if the consistency will tend more toward gooey kablooey or wet, hard clay(if no more rain falls).
Rain returns(supposedly) the following few days, so we can forget about Turf racing this weekend & maybe even next week-- re-cancelling Wednesday's jump race from today..

Raining again-- guess it's not done for today.

7th race-- the winner, #5, recaptured favorite status with the late pari dump(after race off)-- carrying to victory substantial votes on scratched horses...while 2nd fave finished off the board. All in all, @ ¼ today's entries are gone.

8th race-- our choice, carrying remaining 3 entries, vying for favoritism. We hope favorite status fall on another horse AND that it finish off the board-- taking down the votes from all scratchees as well.
Ehh... we'll surely be posttime fave now.
9th race will be key as far as eliminations: top 4 choices carry 40% of today's entries.
Ok, all our entries make it today.

Bbuutttt, you gotta be kidding us.... 9th race scratches down to four entries??!!?! We coulda saved ourselves all the day's aggravation by just betting anything in there. Actually, this morning, when at 5 entries we didn't see anything compelling-- race seemed a tossup, & for most, equal win & out of money cases could be made.
So, now we need for either 3 or 6 to finish dead last. HHHMMMM, if both were to fall down, then all the entries carried by both would go down as well... horse has to actually cross the finish line(with a rider aboard of course) to be awarded a placing(third in this case).

WRAPUP

Not as many eliminated as we'd've liked-- 9th race 4 horse field put a damper on that, no pun intended.
All in all, we're still satisfied-- a higher % than yesterday, 28, went down; and more importantly: our 7 entries all survived unscathed. And that was particularly fortunate in light of not finding anything special-- in particular the 9th race w/ its then 5-horse field.

PS Re betting the cancelled jump race: we just discovered in our Inbox a warning email not to bet it. Still, we think the organizers lucked out, any wronged contestant has a legitimate beef.
Firstly, the race was included in the selection page.
Second, many folk utilize, for spam purposes, a non-primary email account precisely for web sign up purposes-- which seldom, if ever, gets checked.

We can envision 'some' working folk(w/o internet access later on, for whatever the reason) putting in a bet early... not being able to wait until scratch time / post time.
Then again, a bet on such a race just has a general too-risky perception. Luckily, these are not the days of yore when Jonathan S. ruled these races @ 1/5.

PS we suspect two such contestants were given a free pass.

We're just breathing a sigh of relief that the day didn't turn into a free pass for everyone. We want our prize money-- and we want it as quickly as possible-- especially we don't wish to see the contest outlast the meet and go into tiebreaker status.

2008 Del Mar Handicapping Challenge Eighth Day Thursday July 24

2008-07-23T19:21:00.001-05:00

Crappy race.

IFFF one of the longshots is offered higher than 50-1, it would merit a Place bet. At 99-1, a Show bet instead... no Win bet for any of them UNLESS if offered as the ONLY longshot over 25-1-- but even then, it MUST be offered OVER 35-1. In other words, we don't really like any of them, but too many contestants would be drawn to the ONLY longshot in the field... we must cover a potential disaster...that is why the exception re Win Bet.

Otherwise, this race looks like a pass.

Yep, many scratches, no temptingly-high odds whatsoever.

Another race in the bank-- 3 down, 8 more to go. Once we accumulate 11, we can then bet every single remaining race in the contest, to the very end. IF we tried that now w/o skipping any, we wouldn't be allowed to bet the last 8 at all.

When we last updated, #9(the only real longshot offered) was @21-1 with precious few minutes to go. Inside of 2 min. to post is when its odds began creeping up-- although not by a lot. Only when going to load did the odds hit the 30's. At that price we decided to bet-- only by then the race had been taken off the contest page...which can often happen when the day's post times get delayed significantly thruout the card.
That made us very angry-- & were only temporarily mollified when it broke poorly and brought up the rear-- at the end we did have a significant anxious moment or two after it closed to finish fifth. With a good break & settling position, it would've contended for the win.

Saratoga Showdown!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

2008-07-23T01:03:00.001-05:00

That wondrous, magical time has arrived-- too bad NYRA does such a piss-poor job of promoting & selling it: this contest, properly-promoted should do 10-20 thousand buys; and over 100 thousand if elements of other competing contests, plus other innovative features were incorporated into it. That is a subject for another day though-- let's stay optimistic & focused:

It is just after midnite Wednesday, race selections were just put up, and there're 3,000+ entries so far-- we look for a minimum 4 to possibly 5 thousand entries by the 12:15pm deadline...making for the following approximate prizes:

edit: we were a wee bit optimistic-- the registration process just does not facilitate multiple entries that much....to boot, many folk may be leery of giving up bank account number on the web. Final fig: 3,684 entrants-- may actually go down a bit later, when they get back bounced transactions. Just subtract ¼-½K from the lowest fig for each placing to give you approximate prize.

1st- 15-20K
2nd- 8-10K
3rd- 4-5K
4th- 3-4K
5th- 2-3K
6th- 2-2½K
7th- 2K
8th- 1½K
9th- 1K
10th- 3/4K

We start with eight entries and the goal of sweeping the top five spots.

Some things to note for the first day's card:

1. It is due to start raining(& quite heavily) any minute now in Saratoga, continuing on & off for 13 of the next 14 days-- we kid you not. Look for the track to be sealed all day-- and we'll all have a better sense of how wet it is by midday: could be anything from fast to boggy.
We doubt the latter though-- unless the rain is totally nonstop, track maintenance should be able to utilize all its tricks to keep the surface fairly close to fast for the first day at least.

We actually hope for a swampy mess with a quicksand rail-- we would love nothing more than seeing something like 90% of entrants eliminated immediately.

2. Today's card is chock full of large fields comprising almost exclusively of Turf & 2YO races. Will races stay on the Turf? We'll guess yes... if only to keep the field sizes large, rather than 4-5 horse fields after scratches galore. There is one dirt sprint--
3rd race-- with 7 entrants only + a consensus best bet of the day / clear on the lead favorite / with a win on lone off-track effort / who shouldn't be at this level anymore save for an unlucky DQ two back, followed by a second against the bias last out...we wouldn't be surprised if 90% of entries jump aboard. We will tag it with one of our 8 entries-- so as not to get eliminated if everyone else passes-- but we will look elsewhere for the bulk of our entries.
We hope that the rail is dead tomorrow AND that Jerkens & Dominguez in the next stall over decide to duel & keep it pinned against the rail-- we wouldn't be angry over an accidental bump out of the gate as well. The only chink with that scenario is that #2 may not be able to keep dueling much further than the half if the rail is not dead-- so Bridgmohan on #3(best contender here btw) should hopefully be alert enough to sit just outside the two speedsters and pounce before entering the far turn.

3. The other horses that should get some backing from the masses look vulnerable:

Race 2-- #2 we hope for the following negative scenarios: it breaks from the rail btw-- bad rail, closer against speed bias, closer will have to loop field / encounter traffic problems, dislikes wet going(though already worked on wet surface), majority of debuters turn out to be superior, etc.

#8 Race 10-- #8 could be strung out too wide early; could be deteriorated goods between age & Lake doping(notice the steady drop in class and/or stay at same level in spite of winning)-- very few horsemen are able to successfully claim dropping horses off trainers like Lake, Shuman, etc... if even able to race them again ever. The lone short & terribly slow workout(esp. for a speedster) inspires zero confidence.

4. There's very little sense in working up any detailed analysis now-- scratches & surface conditions could make the effort totally fruitless. We will endeavor to stay clear of the public choices tomorrow, while hoping to see a minimal number of scratches & worsening weather conditions.

edit: Too many scratches for our blood left ½ the card with small fields. We now hope a few things happen to consensus choices:

A. uneven portions of surface lead to negative / unexpected biases.

B. most jocks figuring a speed bias will engage in suicidal fractions-- reversing expected results.

C. off-track pedigree conducive to Saratoga rears its head-- it can trump general / traditional wet pedigree stats, big time.

Not knowing "for sure" how this first day's surface will play, and how much more the weather will continue to affect it as the day transpires, we've balanced out our 8 picks to take advantage of all possible scenarios, to wit:

dead rail / inside
the opposite: golden rail / boggy mid track
extreme speed bias
disastrous pace duels

We paid very, very strong attention to wet track performance & pedigree, and trainers (Bruce Levine)
we also hedged with some public choices, in case a the day turns into a fave fest.

Our favored pick of the day, if we had to put all our marbles on one runner, is

#3 Icetate in the 3rd Race. A young, improving horse on its third race off the layoff--with a versatile running style that can allow it to track the two main speedsters, duel them if one wants to scamper away, or take back and close if they want to get crazy up front. Now, it won't necessarily win this race-- #1 could scamper away alone, maybe even on a golden rail, but it should finish in the money. Wet track ability & pedigree are optimal btw.

Summary of our picks:

HEDGES / JUST IN CASE

1 on #2 in the 2nd-- one of the consensus choices today has impeccable wet track pedigree and a race under its belt...finishing 2nd despite some trouble. On its own merits, this is not such a strong or value bet, BUT it serves actually as a double hedge: coattail the public and the Asmussen / Bridgmohan combo(3rd race), which we just cannot fathom being blanked off the board in both small-field races.

2 on #1 in the 3rd-- we actually hope it falls over the rail... it will likely be carrying way over ½ the contestants today.

1 on #1 in the 10th-- ditto all reasons for both of the above-mentioned horses.... & trainer Levine is winning at an ungodly 40+% clip.

STRONG BETS

1 on #5 in the 6th-- Levine again, this time on a multiple winner at Saratoga and on wet track. Only gets one vote because it might get into a too strong pace duel & is the morning line favorite. This selection also serves as a backup to the 10th race, for the same reasons we gave re Asmussen entries.

3 on #3 in the 3rd-- for all previously stated reasons. And if this race had 5 entrants like others in the card, we would've let it carry at least 6 of the 8 picks. BUT, you just never know here: it may get outdistanced too far early(on a speed-biased track the two early duelers may finish one-two...making #3 have to beat ALL the rest), may get caught wide early w/ that part of the track not being the place to be....

INTRA DAY OBSERVATIONS:

Looks like inside the place to be so far....

1st race-- sorta ok results: although ML fave came in, actual parimutuel fave tanked-- taking as well with it all bets on scratched entries.

2nd race-- not great results: although we are now guaranteed to play tomorrow, first two strong ML choices came in-- very few eliminated here.

3rd race-- looks like the 1 should air, given the way the track is playing-- unless our choice has made monstrous improvements. After this race we'll break & come back this evening.
#2 either still too green or didn't handle wet going...that's the only break #1 needed to scamper away untouched.

Yeah...looks like a fave fest day..... still, 10% are out already....

DAY'S WRAPUP:

All in all, we're satisfied with this first contest day-- in spite of the combo small field & favorite fest-- almost ¼ of all entries were eliminated. An average daily elimination of rate of 20% guarantees this Showdown will come to a conclusion before meet's end... as has been the case historically with most Showdowns. That means that all we have to worry about is surviving, w/o tiebreakers like most Wins, highest single mutuel, etc. coming into play.

And more importantly today, we only lost one entry(finished fourth after bumping at the break)... a significant victory after having spread out the selections to cover different possible track bias scenarios.

Speaking of-- in light of how the running progressed throughout the day & as long as the wet weather continues, we will likely lean tomorrow towards closers / pressers + middle to outside posts. We will only play early speed if it is quality(rateable and/or able to duel fast and win), will not get pinned to the inside, and/or looks to clear substantially early.

2008 Del Mar Handicapping Challenge Seventh Day Wednesday July 23

2008-07-21T19:55:00.001-05:00

We commend the contest organizer for putting up this race so quickly(Monday).

If the 4 or 2 can be had @25-1...it's a bet, otherwise pass.

Let's take #7 @ 26-1... has a chance to clear this field early IIFFFF Espinoza is awake today.

uugghhhh.....what an ugly race.

2008 Del Mar Handicapping Challenge Sixth Day Monday July 21

2008-07-21T08:35:00.001-05:00

This race does not look to offer great value.
(It's important to note it will be limited to 8 entrants-- the outside 4 are actually on the also eligible list.)

Handicapping insights? What handicapping? It's a 5 furlong dash--a charge of the light brigade early on-- won by either:

1. the early speedster fortunate enough to get a clean start while it's main pace competitors are playing bumper cars with each other, blowing the turn, etc.-- or...

2. in case of a clean start for most, one of the early speedsters not good enough to make the front flight-- but then able to thread thru the gasping duelers inside the sixteenth pole.

Value / Possible Longshots? HHMMMM, let's see:

there's a router on the rail @ 8-1 ML, coming off a layoff, that can't win unless on a clear lead or beat NW2L claimers... Best case scenario: it's ready to run off the layoff AND it will successfuly rate here AND will get a clear lane late.... maybe if Moses was the pilot....

...and a pair of Turf debuters @ 12 & 15-1 on the outside two posts. Of those, #7 @ 15-1 w/ Aaron Gryder aboard garners a second look: although off 8 months, the trainer does click with 1 in 4 layoff horses, and the horse is going from 3 to 4yo. But it's got its work cut out: would have to successfully rate, secure good position and get a clean trip. We think this race may actually be part of the trainer's modus operandi to teach the horse to successfully rate early.

Come posttime we'll give a second thought to anyone over 25-1... and since we'll be gone most of the day, we'll bet #7 now. In case we're not back in time, it's the most likely candidate to reach cap odds. But we'll cancel the bet if the odds are below 25-1.
BTW please remember to cancel early unwanted bets... we've forgotten twice already this contest. A good practice is to first check Bet Summary; doing this will also help remind one of earlier bet(s) in effect when trying to place a new bet, as the interface does not list previous bets-- and may help avoid getting shut out, since changing a bet is actually a multiple step / click process of finding Wager Refunds button, then Refund, receive confusing message "There are no races to refund"(which actually means you've successfully cancelled), then Today's Race...

In conclusion, we may well pass this race...it offers little value and/or handicapping certainty. But of course, come posttime we'll have to consider anyone @ cap odds, no matter how unlikely.

Race went to the speed of the speed turf debuter(even though coming off a NW2L, the adjusted early fractions were scorching) off cleanly-- place finisher, #2, bumped out of the gate, then wide while flying late to best the rest.

Almost got caught asleep at the switch again-- was just able to get wager cancel in on time. Hopefully the two previous such memory lapses won't come back to haunt us.
Let's actually alter this strategy immediately. In contests past, with no limit on number of races played, we would always put in a bet immediately after the race was put up: before even handicapping, we would just bet one of the ML longshots. That way we wouldn't be shut out, in case we couldn't be around to put in a bet later... better to have something / anything going rather than nothing, especially a dangerous longshot. This year, though:

the new contest limit of 32 wagers mandates saving unused bullets in the holster for down the stretch: 43 total contest days minus 32 maximum days allowed to bet = 11, the number of unplayed days we want to get out of the way... so as to not reach the last part of the contest not being allowed to bet any more races. Ideally, the last half of the contest we'd like to have those 11 races out of the way already, in order to be able to play every single day with abandon(even races with no longshots, we'd perhaps be able to make a few bucks here and there with say, some show or win dutch bets).

Today, like this first week for the most part, was a perfect time to pass-- nothing over 15-1 offered. This week had only two playable days(between no longshots offered and/or only unplayable longshots)-- so serious players should have banked 4 unplayed days already. We forgot twice to cancel wagers offered below playable odds threshold, hence have only banked 2 unplayed days.
Let's hope the contest organizer keeps picking sucky races so we can quickly reach our quota.

2008 Del Mar Handicapping Challenge Fifth Day Sunday July 20

2008-07-20T16:18:00.001-05:00

Nothing here.

We don't understand the designation of this race as Contest Race in the slightest:

It's not the feature race, nor a classy race, nor the one with the highest number of entrants... it is however, the one LEAST likely to produce a large price-- it has the least number of ML double digit longshots(ONE...barely qualifying @ 10-1) as well as the LOWEST ML longest shot.

Whudda thunk it? To choose from they had one of DelMar's staples: G2 Eddie Read Handicap...but at seven entrants-- if they wanted a still classy race but with a larger field, they had the 100K Fleet Treat Stakes. And if what they wanted was a large(est) field, then there were FOUR other races with more entrants: 10 each.

We can't think of a less-desirable contest race. You can't even say,"Well, it's Sunday-- how about a race early in the card?" As there are more qualifying earlier races.

You could've blindfolded us with the proverbial hat pin in hand and come up with a better choice.

Edit: just realized $200 in refunds didn't go through the past couple of races.... so we're on a fast road to nowhere ourselves..

Survival at the Shore Final Thoughts

2008-07-20T13:55:00.001-05:00

There were a lot of good new changes made in this year's edition-- but we're not too sure about the automatic granting of a new(& additional) lifesaver at the start of every month + to boot, the lifesaver now working as a free pass in case all selections finish off the board(rather than being ONLY a free pass for one absent day).
The problem lies with Monmouth's extreme favorite bias-- in 4 & 8 out of every 10 races the favorite wins & finishes in the money, respectively.
So, this new format favors those lucky enough to catch longshots early in the contest to coast thereafter, with a strategy of 2 sure & 1 longshot per day thereafter; while those behind need the converse strategy of one sure & two longshots.

One might think that w/ such a favorite bias the latter strategy can be utilized all the time-- it might work for a while, but will fail in the long run "on an individual basis"... all it takes is one of the myriad of troubled trips possible, the horse has a headache, maybe a late scratch auto-transfers pick to a false favorite, maybe weather dictates a surface change(or the expected wet weather does not materialize and one handicapped for it in anticipation), etc. Notice we termed it "on an individual basis"... as on a collective contest basis it works all the time-- due to the sheer numbers of thousands of contestants, all possible combinations & permutations "each get covered by a considerable number of entrants".

In previous editions one didn't have to toss so much caution to the wind, as the great equalizer was prompt elimination-- no multiple free passes were available-- actually zero were available, as a lifesaver was only good for totally skipping a day. In previous editions, once considerably behind-- could still afford to play safe / let most ahead fall by the wayside...
But now with the new preserver format....plus everybody and their mother knows about the favorite bias... that's become an unrealistic strategy. We haven't kept detailed tabs, but we'd hazard a guess that over half the contest races have had a selection picked by more than half the contestants. In combination with that, there has not been one single contest day where all three favorites bit the dust. or more than a handful where two such favorites went down. The best one can realistically hope for is that races have multiple horses vying for favoritism-- and that a couple of them finish out... a slow water faucet drip type of elimination grind. Counting both early and late scratches, all that's needed is a race or two to whittle down to 6-8 participants, to allow most contestants to pass on to another day.

Let's take this year's example:
Firstly, the month of September is not part of the contest. Second-- those with one & two preservers will pick up in 1½ weeks their second & third preservers-- the leaders so benefiting can take a lot more longshot stabs than those behind them. Someone with three preservers can theoretically bet an entire week or more at a time of only longshots... & as long as at least one or two hit the board, continue trying thereafter. Although that is a strategy that cannot be relied upon if one is still in numerical range but behind many contestants: the sheer numbers dictate that the longshots one is fortunate to catch, will also have been caught by quite a few ahead as well.

In short, the many pitstops / extra chances, in combination with the abbreviated length(ends with Labor Day)-- bias this race to those frontrunners able to escape the start unscathed.

We can understand this new contest format "from the organizer's point of view"-- their aim is to have as many as possible in contention as long as possible. They might / would probably counter with the argument that of right now, 83% of contestants have been eliminated.

We've suggested to the contest organizers to make this contest a for pay event, in the manner of the Nyra Showdowns and more importantly-- to allow folks to buy a preserver instead. The substantial prize & preserver monies could allow payouts many places down(like in the Connecticut OTB tourneys), additional NTRA / World Series entries, etc. The buying of preservers would fulfill the organizers' wish to see more contestants last longer and would level the playing field a bit.

Imagine for a moment a contest with more than ten thousand entries opening day--Nyra gets lots of entries but can do a way better job with payment options-- either they've accepted credit cards or electronic bank account payment at times, buy never both... someone accepting those, paypal, google checkout...in person at the racetracks & simulcast parlors, etc. should be able to attract ten thousand as a minimum. Of course, it would entail allowing multiple entries. Now imagine the following additional rules & options:

1. Additional preservers(everyone gets one free to start with) can be purchased up to two in one calendar month(one would be allowed however, to use up the next month's quota in the present month) but ONLY after "being eliminated"... for $5 each(an extra $5 for each extra contest day that passes while having been eliminated).

2. At the start of each month one can purchase new / duplicate an existing entry in the following manner:

A. July 1 one can duplicate an existing entry, capped @ the breakeven ROI(of $18 a day, which is three across the board wagers on three horses. Today, for instance, is @600) for $20. Entries in the plus column would cost $30.

B. August 1 double July's pricing....

Total prize pool could top one million by contest end!!!

2008 Del Mar Handicapping Challenge Fourth Day Saturday July 19

2008-07-19T12:59:00.001-05:00

Looks like we will probably remain hostered today. While this race does not look like a walkover for a heavy fave, it does not, at the same time, seem to give any of the projected longshots much chance.

We will likely pass, unless if we notice in further analysis, someone who can safely hit the board. Even then, it won't yield much.

One thing though, for all you exchange market traders-- #6 seems like a good LAY candidate(bet to lose / not win), barring multiple frontrunner and/or other main contender scratches of course.

Later.

Survival at the Shore 34th day Saturday July 19

2008-07-19T12:27:00.001-05:00

Yes, 34th(2 days lost to tech glitches), in spite of what contest site states.

We sit extremely, extremely vulnerable today-- again, we went for price today, without the safety net of any contest life preservers.

7th: Here is our semi-safe choice...of course, there's nothing safe about a turf race with a large field...to boot we've been cursed by horrendous trips the last couple of days(in other contests as well): #7
Notice Bravo jumping off to ride Pletcher horse...we don't like that horse too much and feel it's more about Bravo wanting to get in w/ Pletcher-- something he really needs especially since being displaced as the king of Monmouth. #7 brings improving numbers and unlimited potential in this third race as a 3yo & off an extended layoff... that profile is the most likely and ablest to produce the largest fig improvement. We now just pray for a safe trip, as we only ride longshots in the remaining two races.
Speaking of longshots-- #1 would be our choice in here-- although we would prefer both a shorter distance & #6 scratched out. #1 has a sick fast first fraction it can throw to clear the field, however-- its turn time slows down considerably after that. Rider Ortiz has already brought in a couple of longshot frontrunners on the Turf this meet. It remains to be seen whether #6 elects to duel right away or concede early while tracking close up. At any rate, #1 would make an iffy choice... and counting the next two races, we can't have only iffy choices all day.

Oh, and back to musical jockey chairs: notice how Centeno elected to stick with Also Eligible Barclay Tagg trained #11 instead of #5(who's getting blinkers btw). Castro jumps back on-- & at sufficiently high odds would become a viable longshot play-- esp. third off the Euro plane & layoff(& off course, the able Castro aboard). We're not too keen on #11, in spite of clicking w/ Tagg @ 10-1 on the Turf yesterday btw. #11 is facing a field of seasoned performers, improving sorts and others with lots of potential...and would need to post a big fig jump(which it's potentially able and likely to do) to be eligible for the win, but others with faster numbers already are as well likely / able to post further numbers jumps. #11 may get a lesser award, but we would be extremely surprised it grabbed the top spot... to boot, the ML suggests little value premium.

8th: #8 our choice. Safe and / or alternate choices would be #'s 2 & 5. By our numbers, #8 actually sports the highest lifetime fig. Notice as well the rating ability at times-- it's precisely this we're counting on today. The last race, first one back from layoff, can be discarded.. by noticing in the pp's that it took several to get going in gear last year. May need this race as well-- but we'll take a shot at juicy odds: we hope for 50/100-1.

9th: This race is a projected tussle likely won by whoever gets the best trip. We can study the numbers all we want and pick someone drawn inside-- but that pick could get bottled up in there-- so we must go for value: #7.
Trainer Shuman's clicking @ just over 30% winners for Monmouth this year, and rider Fragoso makes for an able longshot steerer. #7 can stay close and then unleash a sick turn time open lengths better than its closest competitor-- to us, turn time, when combined with a superior other fraction(in this case #7's final fraction), is the ultimate arbiter of superiority and counterbalance / shield vs. troubled trips. At 10-1 morning line, we hope for 30/50-1 post time odds.

Race 7: race video down. We may be out of the contest. We may have bit off a little too much today, what with avoiding consensus choices here and betting longshots later. No sweat... che será, será...we have plenty of projects vying for our attention.

Chart up...great...missed by a nose.

Race8: internet video still down. another one bites the dust. Everything riding on trainer Shuman in the 9th.

Race 9: 22-1 @ 10 min. to post. Video still down, even charts from 7th race not up yet. No success for us today, no joy / entertainment even.
40-1... can't even watch race..... have to wait interminable minutes for just the results.......

Survival at the Shore Friday July 18

2008-07-18T08:45:00.001-05:00

We're out of preservers, so we'll be on autopilot from here on out, mostly avoiding the top consensus choices in each race. Anyhow, if favorites keep coming in, then we weren't going to catch up.... As well a safe strategy like playing two safe shots & one longshot is no guarantee of staying alive-- one / two bad trips and/or late scratches into a false favorite is all it takes. ..yesterday being a perfect example.
"We need to take MORE chances at longshots than those ahead of us". Rest assured that many, many holding 2 preservers-- + maybe a third one come Aug.1-- will be firing lots of shots.

As well there are other tournaments-- we need to realistically budget our available time...all the while daytrading & handicapping cling to our apron strings.

In the first two contest races, we're wagering former rider getting back on to re-right the ship. BTW yes, many of you may / will find a lot of glaring weaknesses, negative stats, etc. w/ our choices... the same holds true though, for all entrants in these mule races.

2nd race: #1: may be able to control the pace here with Cohen back aboard.

4th race: We believe the race will go to someone in the first flight or thereabouts not too far back(#'s-- 10 / 7 / 9 / 3 / & maybe 5)whichever of them is most in the mood to run today-- as the rest may find themselves far, far back early... one of the reasons we don't fancy both ML faves w/ Bravo & Lezcano aboard.
#7: very positive to see Mariano back aboard in spite of last two running lines. Obviously, the drop to the bottom claiming level is a very strong angle-- the trick being to ascertain the dropper's form is not shot. We can maybe forgive the last two lines-- the route early pace being way faster than anything previously faced, and the short sprint for 'maybe' not having been persevered with after losing all realistic chance with the tardy start.

6th race: #3 The pace figure from the Florida race puts this horse way out in front alone, barring any of the debuters wanting to / able to dispute the pace. And that fig was put up while almost still a two year old....now it's over ½ year later. It's interesting to note though that Trujillo on a similar type of horse yesterday(to boot getting first Lasix) actually took back(far back actually) and rallied late...we wouldn't complain w/ rating tactics... assuming the horse is rateable... would then finish that much more strongly.

As always, we'll re-assess when scratches come out later.

Final look-- no selection changes.

We'll take the 2nd race result...sort of-- a longshot & a medium shot await-- & 2/3 contestants are blanked so far.... Of course, our atrocious racing luck continues== 3 straight trouble-trip races in a row(counting yesterday's fave we got assigned to after late scratch).

4th-- make that 4 straight here...got squeezed back to last....another one bites the dust. #9 wins....& along with #10, were much better odds than #7(from our top choices). Although if we strictly had gone by price, the 10 @ 20-1 would've looked a lot better over 9's 12-1 Morning Line. Real irritating to see most suck up & pass another day(third on Bravo)... and tough to root against favorite-- knowing a big price we didn't have would likely win instead. At least #4 finished out...... but it was a distant second to #1 in contestant selections.

6th-- not a great start: a bit s-shaped / slight bumping...ehh, coulda been much worse. Barclay Tagg can be very deadly when he takes off a few months to school & prep a horse. And we get heavily backed 7 & 10 off the board....doesn't help that much though-- Bravo's heavy fave did manage to hit third last race.

We're still waiting for at least one major chalk-bustin' bloodbath day... not one single one during this contest...almost happened twice: once Bravo saved everyone by a desperate nose over the fourth-place closer, another time a false favorite was about to take almost everyone with it, but offshore money, which came in during the race, made someone else the favorite.

We need a couple bad days to get most of the lucky riff-raff out / clear the way for serious strategizing and playing.

2008 Del Mar Handicapping Challenge Third Day Friday July 18

2008-07-17T20:43:00.001-05:00

In this world 10% of the population amasses 90% of the wealth-- while the other 90% scrambles for the remaining sliver.
Nowhere is this more evident than in this contest. When we glance at the complete standings, we can readily see that positions 1-3,348 will not be around at the end "anywhere near the top"-- they have no clue whatsoever as to what they're doing. This is plainly evident because all of them are guilty of at least one of the following transgressions: incorrect bet amounts & bets on the wrong type of horses(odds)...even those not obviously guilty of either(those at exactly minus -$100) still committed another dangerous faux pas: passing a race containing multiple longshots-- this last is particularly negative not just because of the obvious danger of a longshot winning, but because there will come stretches of days at a time with nothing near longshot odds-- many races will go off with the biggest longshot @ 10/12-1(those are the races that MUST be passed, barring a sure lock-- esp. now that there's an actual cap on the number of races one may bet on...32... of 43)...when the opportunity arises it must be grasped for.

So right off the bat 2/3 of entrants 'at least' are automatic throwouts.

We'll be back later with the card's analysis. We haven't glanced at it yet, but it's one of our favorite, favorite types: 2yo racing.

Looks like we had our hopes up too much-- the race has a bunch of mules: perfect example of how far California racing, & particularly DelMar, has diminished.

Let's do the following:

#'s 1,6,7,10.... whichever one of them goes off 99+-1, bet to Show, 60-90 bet to Place. Less than that(50 or less), NO BET.... and NO WIN BET UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCE.
The ONLY EXCEPTION to the latter is if-- due to scratches or whatever else, there is ONLY ONE LONGSHOT(25+-1) that doesn't reach 60+-1 AND all other contenders are offered BELOW 20-1: we will then bet it to WIN.
btw IFFFFFFFF more than one qualifies, we'll split hairs tomorrow...otherwise, the race may likely be a PASS.

10 min. to post... let's save our precious time-- and dollars.... nobody is going to drift up enough to qualify. PASSSSSSSSSSSS.... Hasta Mañana.

PS The one longshot we liked the most: #1(very undervalued though) bears watching...now two bad trips in a row. All our longshots were undervalued-- and the two longest shots in this field, at post time, were only 20-24 until 1 min. to post.